This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
We have several tight matchups on Thursday's college hoops slate, some possibly influencing postseason deliberations in March. Here are my predictions for three select games Thursday.
Seton Hall 
vs. VCU 
The Charleston Classic, from TD Arena, tips off on Thursday, with this matchup being the third on the schedule.
The last time I previewed a Seton Hall game, I picked the under when they played Hofstra for three reasons. One, the Pirates are playing elite defense. Two, they are dreadful offensively. Three, they are ranked almost dead last in adjusted tempo. Thankfully, this recipe produced exactly what we expected. Hofstra defeated Seton Hall, 49-48.
Seton Hall has since rebounded from its loss to the Pride, defending home court against Wagner, 54-28, not a typo. The Pirates held the Seahawks to just 28 total points, limiting them to 24 percent from the field. Wagner didn't do much to help itself against Seton Hall, but we still need to give credit to the Pirates' defense. They rank 11th in adjusted defensive efficiency, and they've held all four opponents to under 58 points, so this group plays relentlessly on defense regardless of the opponent.
VCU, meanwhile, plays a similar style of basketball, although much sharper offensively. The Rams rank 70th in adjusted offensive efficiency and eighth on defense, so they can still improve their scoring output even though they're 4-0 and have scored at least 80 points in three of four games. The number of points looks impressive on paper, but it's important to note that Thursday's game represents VCU's toughest test to date. The Rams rank 328th in strength of schedule, and prior to Thursday, the toughest defense it saw was Merrimack, 80th in efficiency, and that was also easily their lowest point total, winning 63-42.
In looking at how these teams will attack each other, they are in for a rough time whenever they have the ball. Seton Hall has struggled to put the ball through the hoop for two fundamental reasons. It can't stop turning the ball over, ranking 336th in offensive turnover percentage, and it can't make close shots, ranking 345th in two-point field goal percentage at under 40 percent. This spells disaster against most teams, especially against teams like VCU. The Rams rank ninth in defensive turnover percentage and 14th in two-point field goal percentage allowed, holding opponents to under 40 percent on shots inside the arc. Going in the other direction, VCU isn't quite as bad at shooting, but it also has a turnover problem, ranking 264th in offensive turnover percentage. Seton Hall has similar strengths on defense, ranking 11th in defensive turnover percentage and eighth in two-point field goal percentage allowed, so it should be able to slow down VCU.
Considering both teams are heavily defensive-oriented, and Seton Hall's commitment to a slow pace, I'm betting we'll have another low-scoring game on our hands. I'm on the under in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 124.5
Baylor 
vs. St. John's
From Baha Mar Convention Center in Nassau, Bahamas.
The Bears were embarrassed on opening night, as they no-showed against Gonzaga and got destroyed, 101-63. They have since played with a bit more fire, defeating a quality Arkansas team before scoring exactly 104 points against Sam Houston State and Tarleton State. With its recent performances, Baylor has seemingly erased the damage caused by Gonzaga. The Bears were ranked 11th in overall efficiency to start the year, and they've worked their way back up to No. 12. And much like other Baylor teams from the past several years, this current group is among the best at scoring. The Bears finished each of the past four seasons ranked in the top 10 in adjusted offensive efficiency, and it would be five straight if this year's group can maintain its current 5th place standing.
St. John's, on the other hand, remains undefeated at 4-0, and it's coming off its best win of the season. The Red Storm hosted New Mexico this past Sunday and won, 85-71, defeating a team that already beat UCLA by eight points. St. John's is playing a balanced brand of basketball, ranking in the top 25 in efficiency on both offense and defense, so it has a reasonable chance of hearing its name called on Selection Sunday if it can keep it up.
When these two teams face off on Thursday, both teams will have the upper hand whenever they have the ball. Despite the great defensive efficiency rating, St. John's has been lackluster on the glass, ranking 165th in defensive rebounding percentage. This isn't a big deal against a team that isn't active on the boards, but this is not the case on Thursday. Baylor ranks 15th in offensive rebounding percentage, so the Bears will likely get many put-back opportunities. This exact same advantage also applies in the other direction. The Red Storm ranks 25th in offensive rebounding percentage and Baylor ranks 166th on defense, giving the Johnnies a similarly good chance of seeing a high amount of put-backs.
One other item worth noting, St. John's is pushing the pace as quickly as possible this season, ranking 13th in the nation in average offensive possession length. This is hardly a new trend, however, as head coach Rick Pitino has often made this part of his game plan. Pitino-led teams have ranked in the top 80 of average offensive possession length in his last three seasons, so we can believe this game plan won't change, especially with a team that is great at scoring like this year's group.
Given all the strengths and weaknesses of each team, I like our odds of seeing a high-scoring game. I'm taking the over.
College Basketball Best Bet: Over 152.5
Memphis 
vs. San Francisco 
The Tigers enter Thursday with a spotless 3-0 record, and unlike a lot of other teams, they already have a pair of quality wins. They first beat Missouri at home, 83-75, before defeating UNLV on the road, 80-74.
Admittedly, I picked against Memphis when they played the Rebels, in part because this is a brand-new roster. The Tigers rank 320th in minutes continuity, although they rank sixth in D-1 experience, so this is a group that's seen it all, even if it hasn't played together that long compared to other teams. Memphis is solid on both ends of the court, ranking around 40th in the nation in both offensive and defensive efficiency, a team that perhaps we'll see playing in late March.
San Francisco also remains perfect on the year, 4-0, and it has a solid win under its belt, an 84-73 win over Boise State. The Broncos were picked to finish first in the preseason Mountain West media poll, garnering 19 of 26 first-place votes, so this victory should not be discounted. In any event, the Dons also don't have many weaknesses, ranking 53rd in offensive efficiency and 67th on defense. On paper, San Francisco's defense isn't quite as stout as Memphis', although it does one thing well that the other does not: cause turnovers. The Dons rank 30th in defensive turnover percentage, an important stat because Memphis' biggest offensive weakness is taking care of the ball. The Tigers rank 252nd in offensive turnover percentage and 313th in offensive steal percentage, so San Francisco should see many fast break opportunities on Thursday.
Memphis proved me wrong last time, and they may get the better of me again, but given the matchup and the location of Thursday's game, I prefer the home team. I'm going with the Dons.
College Basketball Best Bet: San Francisco +1.5
Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Thursday:
- Seton Hall vs. VCU - Under 124.5
- Baylor vs. St. John's - Over 152.5
- San Francisco +1.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
