This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Thursday's college hoops slate brings us another round of Pac-12 After Dark action. Here are my predictions for some noteworthy matchups on the board.
Arizona 
at Utah 
On paper, it's hard to bet against Arizona. The Wildcats are sixth on KenPom's overall efficiency chart, and they have the top offensive and defensive efficiency ratings in the Pac-12 during conference play. That said, their performance between playing at home and on the road fluctuates as much as any other college basketball team. Arizona finally won at Oregon in their last road trip, but it had previously lost its last three consecutive road games, losing at Stanford, Washington State, and Oregon State. The biggest problem for the Wildcats when traveling is its defense. In 12 home games, Arizona is allowing 64 points per game. In 10 games outside of home, Arizona is allowing 82 points per game.
The Utes, meanwhile, have been unbeatable at home, winning all 13 games in the state of Utah. Aside from its home-court advantage, they do a couple of things well that should help them on Wednesday. First, Utah has a strong interior defense. The Utes are holding league opponents to 46 percent on shots inside the arc, the lowest percentage allowed in the Pac-12, a strength that will come in handy as Arizona does most of its damage inside the paint. Since the conference season tipped off, the Wildcats are getting 55 percent of their total points from shots inside the arc, the second-highest percentage of points off two-pointers in the Pac-12. We also have a similar type of situation at the other end of the court. Utah has good shooting numbers everywhere on the court, but it primarily scores from the outside, logging the highest three-point attempt rate in the conference. This is proving to be the best method of attacking Arizona, as the Wildcats are allowing opponents to make 35 percent of shots from behind the arc, ranked 243rd among all D1 teams.
Betting against Arizona isn't easy, but in this circumstance, I like Utah's odds of defending its home court. I'm rolling with the Utes in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Utah +5.5
Washington 
at Oregon 
This matchup features two teams with similar profiles, but the numbers suggest one team has a clear edge over the other.
Washington hasn't played well on defense for most of the season, and the numbers are only getting worse against league opponents. During the conference season, the Huskies rank second-to-last in defensive efficiency, last in effective field goal percentage allowed, and last in three-point field goal percentage allowed. The latter will almost surely be a problem on Thursday, as Oregon has been red-hot from three-point range during conference play, making 40 percent of its shots from behind the arc. This mismatch on the perimeter is significant by itself, but then Oregon shouldn't have much trouble with inside scoring, either. The Ducks are making 50 percent of shots inside the arc while the Huskies are allowing Pac-12 opponents to make 53 percent on two-pointers, the third-worst percentage allowed.
When playing in the other direction, the offensive team again has an advantage, but much smaller compared to what Oregon sees when it has the ball. Washington is putting up points at a decent rate, recording the fourth-highest offensive efficiency rating in the Pac-12 during conference play, and it's going against an Oregon defense that ranks 10th in the league. Even still, there are two big differences on this end. Washington is not quite as sharp from the three-point line, making 35 percent, and Oregon's defense is a cut above Washington. Although the margins are small, the Ducks rank ahead of the Huskies in many important defensive categories such as turnover percentage, rebounding, and free-throw attempt rate.
Overall, these two teams sit relatively close to each other in the overall efficiency standings, but Oregon has consistently played better throughout the season. The Ducks have won at least three consecutive games in three different instances this season, while Washington has won three straight games just one time. All things considered, I'm taking the better-scoring team and the team that's playing at home. I'm laying the points with Oregon.
College Basketball Best Bet: Oregon -7
Washington State 
at Oregon State 
The overall numbers for the Beavers are awful and hard to spin, but if we focus on performances at home, their outlook suddenly improves. In 13 home games this season, Oregon State has a scoring margin of nine points per game while averaging 77 points per game. On the road, it transforms into a much worse team, losing by 19 points per game while mustering 60 points per game.
It's also important to note that Oregon State has been thoroughly tested at home, and the numbers still hold up. The Beavers have already defeated Arizona, Arizona State, and USC, and then they held a second-half lead in the conference opener against UCLA before falling, 69-62. They also took Stanford to overtime before losing 88-84, so this is a team that could easily still be undefeated at home.
If we compare these teams side-by-side, Washington State seemingly has the edge in most categories, however, there is one area where Oregon State has it beat. The Beavers are among the best teams in the nation at drawing contact, logging the 29th-highest free-throw attempt rate in the nation. This will likely come into play on Thursday as Washington State has had trouble with fouling, ranking 210th in defensive free-throw attempt rate.
Given these numbers and Oregon State's home-court advantage, I'm taking the points with the Beavers in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Oregon State +9
Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Thursday:
- Utah +5.5
- Oregon -7
- Oregon State +9
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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