This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
The Big East--Big 12 battle resumes on Thursday's college hoops slate, while a pair of Big Ten teams tip off their conference opener. Coming off a 3-0 sweep with yesterday's action, here are my predictions for three select games on Thursday.
Purdue 
at Penn State
The Boilermakers won the Rady Children's Invitational last week after beating N.C. State and Mississippi in back-to-back games, giving them a three-game win streak following their crushing loss at Marquette. When Purdue last took the court, I picked Ole Miss to cover against them, primarily because of the matchup. The Boilermakers are a great team, but Marquette exposed a few flaws, and the Rebels are built similarly. As expected, Ole Miss played Purdue tough, building a seven-point lead with under five minutes remaining before Purdue rallied and won on a last-second shot. It's tough to bet against the Boilermakers, but they're far from perfect.
Penn State, meanwhile, sports a 7-1 record, with its only loss coming against Clemson, 75-67, in Daytona Beach, Florida. The Nittany Lions don't have any quality wins, yet, although they've made the most of their schedule. Penn State started the year ranked 61st on KenPom's overall efficiency chart, and they've risen to No. 40 thanks to consistently beating sub-par teams by large margins.
When the Nittany Lions have the ball, they typically display great shot selection, making over 38 percent from behind the arc and over 60 percent inside of it, yielding an effective field goal percentage that ranks ninth-best in the nation. Their ability to make inside shots should come in handy on Thursday, as Purdue hasn't been great at slowing down inside scoring, allowing opponents to make nearly 52 percent of two-point field goals, ranking 197th among all D-1 teams. Additionally, the Boilermakers play a cautious style of defense, generating very few turnovers. Purdue ranks 337th in defensive steal percentage and 301st in turnover percentage, so Penn State should be able to get off a shot on most of its possessions.
When the Boilermakers have the ball, they are usually elite at scoring, except when they face an aggressive style of defense. Marquette demonstrated this when it demolished Purdue, 76-58, a game where the Boilermakers could hardly take any shots because they were always hounded. The Golden Eagles rank second in defensive steal percentage and fifth in turnover percentage, making them the epitome of an attacking defense. The Rebels weren't too far off, ranking 12th in steals and 14th in turnovers, and one can argue they too should've defeated Purdue. Now, the Boilermakers will face a Penn State defense that ranks eighth in steal percentage and 10th in turnovers.
The other issue with Purdue is that it's no longer a lock to dominate the glass. In past seasons, the Boilermakers featured a marquee player who would clean up the boards, but times have changed. Purdue ranks 179th in offensive rebounding percentage and 130th on defense, significantly lower than Penn State in both categories.
We can never rule out Matt Painter's team finding a way to win, however, this year's squad has a few notable flaws, and Penn State has the right traits to take advantage. I'm betting on the home team.
College Basketball Best Bet: Penn State -2
Xavier 
at TCU 
The Musketeers only have one loss on the season, and it was a rough one, losing to Michigan by a final score of 78-53. As far as wins go, Xavier has seven of them, including one against South Carolina, 75-66, but nobody else noteworthy. The Musketeers rank 340th in strength of schedule, so their 7-1 record is a bit hollow as things currently stand.
Following three straight years of making the NCAA Tournament, TCU has dropped down the charts. The Horned Frogs have lost three of their last four games, and it's hard to find much silver lining. TCU lost to Michigan, 76-64, before losing to Santa Clara, 69-52, and Colorado State, 76-72 in overtime, at the Acrisure Invitational last week. TCU started the season ranked 58th on KenPom's overall efficiency chart, and it has fallen to 82nd as of Wednesday evening, clearly moving in the wrong direction.
When comparing these teams against each other, both have major question marks regarding their ability to score. Xavier ranks 68th in offensive efficiency, an okay standing, but it's having noticeable difficulty in the paint. The Musketeers rank 258th in offensive rebounding percentage and 206th in two-point field goal percentage, barely making 50 percent of shots inside the arc. These stats don't bode well, as TCU is by far at its best when it's playing defense, ranking 31st in efficiency, 31st in turnover percentage, 124th in defensive rebounding, and 52nd in free-throw attempt rate allowed. This is a solid defensive unit all the way around.
When playing in the other direction, we have the opposite situation. The Horned Frogs have struggled to put the ball through the hoop and seemingly don't have any strengths. TCU ranks 165th in offensive efficiency, 210th in effective field goal percentage, and 358th in free-throw percentage. It also makes 32 percent of shots behind the arc and 50 percent of shots inside it, again sub-par numbers. Xavier's defense has looked weak at times, but ultimately it's solid in a few key areas. Specifically, it ranks 90th in turnover percentage, 11th in defensive rebounding percentage, and 40th in two-point field goal percentage allowed.
Considering how these two teams match up against each other, a low-scoring game appears most likely. I'm going with the under in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 144.5
UC San Diego 
at UC Santa Barbara
The Tritons have won six of their eight games this season, although their most impressive performance arguably came in a loss. UC San Diego traveled to San Diego State in the season opener and had the Aztecs on the ropes, holding a five-point lead with under eight minutes remaining. KenPom gave the Tritons a 50 percent chance to win the game at that moment, but unfortunately for the road team, San Diego State rallied and won, 63-58. Even still, the Aztece have since recorded wins over Creighton and Houston, so this kind of performance shouldn't go unnoticed. UCSD is coming off its best season since joining the D-1 ranks, posting a 21-12 (15-5) record in its fourth year at the top college level. The Tritons returned a good portion of minutes from last year's team, so it has a good chance of building off of last season.
The Gauchos, on the other hand, have won six of seven games but haven't played any notable teams. Their one loss came when they hosted UTEP, 79-76, but the Miners rank 171st in overall efficiency, so this was actually a terrible performance. It caused Santa Barbara to fall from No. 115 to No. 127 in the overall efficiency standings. The Gauchos worked their way back up to a small degree after beating up on Eastern Washington and Mississippi Valley State, but the loss to UTEP was still revealing. The Miners jumped out to a 10-point lead in the unofficial first quarter, held a five-point lead at the half, and then again had a 10-point lead around the 10-minute mark of the second half. The Gauchos simply got outplayed at home by a team that is projected to have a losing league record in the Conference USA.
Offensively, these two teams are nearly even at first glance. The Tritons rank 104th in offensive efficiency with the Gauchos a few ticks up at 97th, but that's where the similarities end. UCSD is exceptional at taking care of the ball, ranking sixth in offensive turnover percentage and first in offensive steals. The opposite is true for the home team. UCSB ranks 241st in offensive turnover percentage and 284th in offensive steals, a terrible trait because UCSD plays a feisty style of defense. The Tritons rank 16th in defensive turnover percentage and 39th in steals, giving them a strong likelihood of winning the turnover battle on Thursday.
Defensively, UC San Diego is better in efficiency and in several key categories. In addition to the excellent turnover numbers, the Tritons' defense ranks 103rd in efficiency and 70th in defensive rebounding percentage. The Gauchos, in contrast, rank 142nd in defensive efficiency and 247th in defensive turnover percentage. They have good defensive field goal percentage numbers, but it's important to note that their defense has played the fourth-easiest schedule among all 364 D-1 teams, per KenPom.
Given UCSD's various strengths and advantages in this matchup, I like their odds of earning a road win. I'm taking the Tritons.
College Basketball Best Bet: UC San Diego +2.5
Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Thursday:
- Penn State -2
- Xavier at TCU - Under 144.5
- UC San Diego +2.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
