College Basketball Best Bets: Picks, Odds & Predictions for Saturday, November 18

College Basketball Best Bets: Picks, Odds & Predictions for Saturday, November 18

This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.

Coming off back-to-back 3-0 sweeps with his last two rounds of picks, Steve Peralta once again returns to preview some noteworthy matchups on Saturday's college hoops slate.

Nebraska vs. Oregon State

From Sanford Pentagon in Sioux Falls, SD.

Nebraska's season is off to a great start and they cruise into Saturday with a flawless 4-0 record. We can't argue with the wins, but the schedule is a different story. The Cornhuskers haven't been tested at all, ranking eighth easiest among all D1 teams, per KenPom. It's worth noting that Nebraska was favored by at least 14 points in each matchup and covered three of four, so they're still playing well. The Cornhuskers have several new faces this year to rank well below the D1 average in minutes continuity, though they brought in a few transfers bringing significant experience to the team to give the 43rd most experienced roster for all D1 teams. The other promising attribute for the Huskers is their balanced playing style, ranking 79th in offensive efficiency and 40th in defense. They don't have any glaring weaknesses thus far, though that will likely change now that the level of competition is going up a notch.

Another element that could make a difference for Nebraska is the return of former Alabama forward Juwan Gary, who made his season debut in the most recent game against Stony Brook. He plays with a strong presence in the paint, and this was evident in his first game back. After suffering a season-ending injury in early January, Gary finally made it all the way back and posted 19 points with seven rebounds in only 23 minutes. One would think his minutes could increase in his second game back, but either way we definitely don't want to overlook his potential impact on this matchup.

Oregon State, meanwhile, is also 3-0, but the record is even more hollow than Nebraska's as their first win came against D3 side Linfield and then they needed double overtime at home to beat Troy along with another OT to survive Appalachian State. This team could easily be 1-2 if the ball didn't bounce certain ways on two different occasions. In any event, the biggest issue going forward for Oregon State is its offense. The Beavers rank No. 212 in adjusted offensive efficiency, by far the worst offensive team in the Pac-12 up to this point. Oregon State is a bit better on defense at No. 137 in efficiency, though that's woefully subpar compared to conference competition with the second-worst defensive ranking among its peers in the Pac-12. One more note for the Beavers is that they play at one of the slowest tempos in the country under coach Wayne Tinkle, consistently ranking in the top-20 percent in D1.

Overall, while both teams enter Saturday with undefeated records, they are not on the same level. Far from it. The new talent that joined Nebraska the past couple of years has noticeably helped the team improve and the efficiency numbers back it up so far. The Beavers' defense might keep Saturday's game close, but ultimately I'm betting they can't keep up with the Huskers. I'm laying the points with Nebraska and taking the under.

College Basketball Best Bet: Nebraska -8.5 and Under 135

Portland at Nevada

Portland started off the season on a high note by winning its first three games before dropping a 75-65 home decision to Tennessee State. The loss undoubtedly stings, but the Pilots have shown plenty of reasons to think they'll bounce back following the disappointing performance, one where they only made 39 percent from the field and went 8-for-29 from behind the arc. The percentages were ugly, but Portland carries several players who can shoot well above the 28 percent mark they made as a team against Tennessee State. Through four games, Portland has the 44th-highest three-point attempt rate in the nation, further underscoring the fact the coaches and players know they're capable of making long-range shots. And Portland's season-opening win against Long Beach State looks slightly more impressive following the latter's eight-point victory at Michigan on Friday evening.

Nevada, on the other hand, enters at 3-0. The Wolfpack also already have a quality win on their resume by taking down Washington 83-76 in Seattle. Everything looks great for Nevada, except for one thing. They're severely lacking in one key category: three-point shooting. The Wolfpack are making under 25 percent of shots from behind the arc, easily one of the lowest percentages in the country. And unlike their opponent Saturday, Nevada rarely attempts three-pointers and sits near the bottom of D1 teams in three-point attempt rate. The Wolfpack are clearly aware of their flaw and therefore don't bother taking many long-range shots.

This isn't a huge problem against opponents who are weaker on defense, but we can't really lump Portland in that category just yet. The Pilots are holding opponents under 44 percent on two-point attempts, the 66th-lowest defensive two-point percentage in the nation. Portland also ranks 46th in average height among all D1 teams, giving them all the essential ingredients needed to defend the rim on Saturday.

Nevada will probably win, but I'm betting Portland can keep it within single-digits. The Pilots have a few new members on the team and this is also the same program that defeated Villanova 83-71 just under a year ago. They might not win at Reno on Saturday, though anything is possible if they can get hot from behind the arc. I'm taking the points with Portland.

College Basketball Best Bet: Portland +13.5

 

Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:

Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:

  • Nebraska -8.5
  • Nebraska vs. Oregon St. - Under 135
  • Portland +13.5

For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Steve Peralta
Graduated from USC in 2012 while interning for ESPN and FOX Sports. Following graduation, I started working full-time for FOX Sports and been there ever since. Been an avid fantasy player for over fifteen years. In addition to my fantasy teams, you'll also find me rooting for the USC Trojans and New York Yankees.
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