This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
We have several contending teams featured on Saturday's college hoops slate as the conference tournaments come to a close. Here are my predictions for a trio of games tipping off Saturday afternoon.
Getting ready for March Madness? For the latest in the projected field of 68 for 2025 NCAA Tournament, head to the RotoWire Bracketology page.
Alabama 
vs. Florida 
Alabama's arguably the most battle-tested team in the nation ranked first according to KenPom in overall strength of schedule among all D-1 teams, making their seven losses more understandable. And their 25 wins includes decisions over the likes Illinois, Houston, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Creighton, and Auburn. The Tide don't always play the tightest defense, but their offensive attack has proven capable of beating any team in the nation - even the best defensive ones.
The Gators play D at an elite level with the ninth-best efficiency rating, though most of their success comes from challenging shots. They held opponents to the fifth-best effective field goal percentage allowed among all D-1 teams, but ranked substantially worse in turnovers, rebounding, and free-throw attempt rate allowed. At the same time, Alabama excel in most offensive areas boasting the country's fourth-highest offensive efficiency rating while seemingly improving the last couple of months with the top rating during the SEC conference season. Alabama also sport the 11th-highest effective field goal percentage while sitting among the top-40 in offensive rebounding and free-throw attempt rate, which should give them extra opportunities on Saturday to maintain their standard tendencies.
The Crimson Tide don't list the same impressive numbers on defense as 26th in adjusted efficiency, yet remain respectable for efficiency, rebounding, and free-throw attempt rate allowed. These core competencies are essential in any game, but especially in one against an attack like Florida's with the third-best offensive efficiency rating during the SEC conference season and the third-best adjusted rating among all D-1 teams overall. They also rank top-50 in effective field goal percentage, turnovers, and offensive rebounding. Slowing down Florida's offense is never easy, though it's worth noting this will be the second time Alabama has faced them. They also met Kentucky three times this season and held them to a lower point total in each successive instance. A similar pattern can be observed versus Auburn and Mississippi State as they held both to a lower point total during each rematch.
Given Alabama's exceptional offensive abilities and the fact we're getting points, I'm taking the Crimson Tide in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Alabama +3.5
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Michigan 
vs. Maryland 
This pick is all about Maryland's defense and how it matches up against Michigan's offense.
The Wolverines are productive when they have the ball, though they've struggled on offensive turnover percentage at 330th in the nation and last in the Big Ten during league play. This problem is compounded by the fact they're susceptible to both forced and unforced errors with the conference's second-worst offensive steal and non-steal turnover percentages, meaning they're plagued by both kinds of turnovers. This flaw can be fatal in any matchup, but especially combustible when facing an aggressive and successful defense such as Maryland's. The Terrapins are elite across the board with the sixth-best defensive efficiency rating among all D-1 teams and top-50 for effective field goal percentage allowed, turnovers, rebounding, and free-throw attempt rate allowed. They also recorded the second-highest clock percentage and fourth-highest steal rate in the Big Ten, rounding out a truly dominant defensive squad. Michigan's offense lost their touch toward the end of the season with the fifth-worst offensive rating during Big Ten conference play. It's safe to say Maryland takes the edge on this side of the court.
The Terrapins don't enjoy the same advantage when going in the other direction, yet they're still highly proficient with the 30th-highest offensive efficiency rating among all D-1 teams while particularly great at shooting making 53 percent of two-point attempts (114th) and 37 of three-point attempts (27th) to yield the 58th-highest effective field goal percentage. The Terps' other beneficial trait is that they're careful with the ball at 27th in offensive turnover percentage. In contrast, Michigan's defense is relatively successful despite the fact that they seldom generate turnovers with the second-worst percentage during the Big Ten conference season. The other potential issue is their relatively weak defensive rebounding numbers ranking 211th overall. Maryland's offense is noticeably better in this area at 129th. Even with these small cracks in their armor, Michigan's defense still sat 17th in adjusted efficiency.
I picked Maryland to pull off the slight upset when the traveled to Ann Arbor last week, and they won without too much trouble. Not much has changed since as they're still the more resilient and consistent side with the right skillset to attack Michigan. I'm laying the points with the Terrapins.
College Basketball Best Bet: Maryland -4
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Creighton 
vs. St. John's 
The Red Storm only lost two conference games all season, one of which was at Omaha on New Year's Day. Defeating St. John's has proved to be extremely difficult. But considering the matchup between these two teams, it's easy to see why Creighton took down the Johnnies earlier in the campaign.
First and foremost, St. John's are limited by their offense. They've won 29 of 33 matches, though these results are primarily attributed to their top-ranked defense. The Red Storm rank 69th in adjusted offensive efficiency overall with the fifth-worst rating during the Big East conference season. They've faced significant shooting issues, which only worsened throughout the league schedule as they only made 49 percent of two-point attempts (third-worst) and 27 of three-point attempts (the worst) to yield the second-worst effective field goal percentage. The Johnnies make up for their poor shooting numbers by overwhelming the offensive glass with the Big East's highest offensive rebounding percentage. This is an incredible stat, yet Creighton recorded the highest defensive rebounding percentage over the same period. Furthermore, the Bluejays held Big East opponents to 46 percent on two-pointers (the second-best) with the lowest free-throw attempt rate allowed. Based on this matchup, it's clear how Creighton managed to hold St. John's to their least efficient offensive performance of the season, per KenPom.
The Bluejays' defensive advantages are critical because they 'll have to face arguably the most formidable defensive team in the country as the Johnnies have ascended to the top of KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency standings. That being said, Creighton are great on the offensive end ranked 35th in adjusted efficiency with the third-highest rating during the Big East season. The Bluejays have a chance in most games thanks to their elite inside scoring numbers hitting over 60 percent of their two-point attempts - the highest mark among all D-1 teams - and 34 percent of three-point attempts to give them the 21st-highest effective field goal percentage. Creighton don't have many other strong areas as they're close to the league average in other important categories, yet these shooting stats certainly give them a chance.
Saturday marks the second time this season these two teams will have played at Madison Square Garden. They were previously here in February with St. John's coming out on top 79-73. The final difference was six points, though the game was tight throughout as Creighton managed a five-point lead during the second half. St. John's has looked unbeatable the past month, but no team is ever truly unbeatable. And in this case, Creighton already did it earlier this year. I'm taking the points with the Bluejays.
College Basketball Best Bet: Creighton +6.5
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Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- Alabama +3.5
- Maryland -4
- Creighton +6.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
