This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
Saturdays in February are never dull, as we once again have a full day of thrilling college hoops action. Here are my predictions for a few intriguing matchups tipping off later in the day.
Gonzaga 
at Kentucky 
As most college basketball fans are well aware, winning on the road is never easy. That being said, the Bulldogs do a couple of things particularly well that give them a fair shot at pulling an upset.
Gonzaga carries a massive rebounding advantage. Most notably, the Bulldogs should have a lot of put-back opportunities as they rank 63rd in offensive rebounding percentage among all D1 teams, and they're going against a Wildcat defense sitting 201st in defensive rebounding. Gonzaga also has a substantial advantage in the other direction at 41st in defensive rebounding compared to 173rd for Kentucky on offense.
Aside from collecting boards, the Bulldogs have a noticeable edge on defense entering Saturday ranked 35th in adjusted defensive efficiency - significantly better than Kentucky at 102nd. The defensive shooting numbers also strongly favor the road team as Gonzaga is holding opponents to 45 percent on shots inside the arc, the 18th-lowest percentage allowed in the nation. In the same category, Kentucky is giving up 49 percent, which puts them 106th. The trend also continues if we factor in all shots as the Bulldogs rank 24th in effective field goal percentage allowed compared to 95th for Kentucky.
For these reasons, my money's on Gonzaga keeping the game close - if not winning outright. Kentucky has lost its last two home matchups, where over 83 points were conceded in each during regulation. I'm going with the Bulldogs in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Gonzaga +6
Washington 
at Oregon State 
Washington is reeling, having lost five of its last seven games after dropping its last one at Oregon on Thursday. The Huskies head to Corvallis for the second leg of their current road trip, a daunting task because they've only won two outside of Seattle all season. One of those was a three-point victory against Xavier in Las Vegas, with the other a two-point decision at California.
Oregon State, meanwhile, is coming off a tough loss to Washington State - one that was tied with under five minutes remaining - but the Cougars made some timely three-pointers to sink the Beavers. The outcome was unfortunate for the home side, but they were still fiercely competitive to follow a familiar pattern. In 14 home games this season, Oregon State has a scoring margin of seven points while averaging 76. On the road, the Beavers are not the same side as they've lost by an average of 19 while mustering 60 overall.
When stacking the teams against each other, Washington has the clear edge on offense. But on defense, we have a different story. During conference play, Oregon State and Washington have been the Pac-12's two worst teams in defensive efficiency. In at least one way, the Huskies are worse defensively as they've given up the highest effective field goal percentage since the conference season started.
Looking at the bottom line, Oregon State has put up a fight in every single conference home game, and I don't see that changing on Saturday. I'm taking the points with the Beavers.
College Basketball Best Bet: Oregon State +4.5
Tennessee 
at Texas A&M 
The Aggies have their work cut out for them on Saturday, yet I like their chances of defending home court based on the matchup.
When Texas A&M has the ball, it doesn't shoot very well - but makes up for it on the glass. The Aggies boast the highest offensive rebounding percentage among all D1 teams, a useful skill against any team - and even more so against the Vols, who rank 168th in defensive rebounding percentage. Texas A&M also list a big advantage in free throws by recording the second-highest free-throw attempt rate in the SEC during the conference schedule. Tennessee has experienced issues with fouling at 274th in defensive free-throw attempt rate, so the Aggies will likely have more trips to the charity stripe on Saturday.
When Tennessee has the ball, it's producing a lot of points, but it faces a stiff challenge. The Aggies have played sharp defense during conference play at fourth in the SEC in defensive efficiency, first in defensive rebounding percentage, and fifth in effective field goal percentage allowed.
Last year, these teams clashed at the same location in College Station where Texas A&M prevailed 68-63. Both clubs returned a significant amount of minutes, so this result perhaps holds more meaning than usual. Either way, I'm betting on the Aggies based on the data from the current season and the offensive matchup advantages. I'm rolling with them here.
College Basketball Best Bet: Texas A&M +2
Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- Gonzaga +6
- Oregon State +4.5
- Texas A&M +2
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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