This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
We've got a wide assortment of games on Saturday's college hoops slate. We've got conference clashes, another round of the Big East-Big 12 Battle, and a high-profile non-conference matchup, among others. Here are my predictions for three select games tipping off later in the day.
Stanford 
at California 
The Cardinal got back in the win column last time out earning a 77-63 win over Utah Valley. The victory was much needed as Stanford had lost back-to-back outings, first to Grand Canyon and then to Cal Poly. Before this skid, they had earned a hard-fought road result at Santa Clara, its only quality win of the season.
The Golden Bears also lost a pair of road matchups to solid opponents in Vanderbilt and Missouri. California's only other notable performance was a road win at USC, though it's possible this won't mean much if the Trojans doesn't improve. Regardless, the Golden Bears' schedule hasn't been much more difficult than Stanford's, so Saturday's matchup will be a revealing test for both squads.
When the Cardinal has the ball on Saturday, it faces a leaky California defense that's struggled to get stops ranking 169th in defensive efficiency while letting opponents get off quality shots at 276th in effective field goal percentage allowed. This weakness might be their undoing against Stanford as the road side sits 78th in offensive efficiency and high across several important categories at 35th in offensive turnover percentage, 60th in offensive rebounding, and 97th in free-throw attempt rate. They do many things well and can score in different ways.
When the Golden Bears have possession, they face a Cardinal defense that isn't the best but excels in several areas at 110th in efficiency, 129th in effective field goal percentage allowed, 82nd in turnover percentage, and 27th in rebounding. The last stat is important because California's best trait is collecting offensive boards, so Stanford can help negate this edge with its defensive strength. Perhaps most important, Cal is careless with the ball ranking 274th in offensive turnover percentage. And Stanford sits 46th in defensive steal percentage, making it likely they'll will win the turnover margin on Saturday.
Considering Stanford has a clear edge in turnovers and outranks California in efficiency at both ends of the court, I like its odds of earning a road win. I'm taking the points with the Cardinal in this spot.
College Basketball Best Bet: Stanford +2.5
Butler 
at Houston
The Bulldogs lost at home to Austin Peay during the second game, a brutal defeat considering the Governors rank 234th in overall efficiency. Butler has since atoned for that misstep by winning six straight. Along the way, they've collected quality victories against SMU, Northwestern, and Mississippi State. And they'll have to travel to Houston for their toughest test of the season.
The Cougars, in contrast, have only won back-to-back games once this season, though you would never know it by looking at their efficiency data. Houston lists four wins and three losses, with the defeats coming against Auburn, Alabama (in OT), and San Diego State (also in OT). If there's ever a time to "buy low" on a team, this is it. Houston won all four of its other contests by double-digits, including three by 35-plus.
In looking at how this matchup might unfold, points appear hard to come by. Houston's offense, though highly effective, confronts a defense that's excellent at forcing difficult shots. The Bulldogs are holding opponents to the lowest effective field goal percentage in the nation and are also doing an outstanding job of not fouling at 27th in free-throw attempt rate allowed. Specifically, Butler is holding opponents to under 41 percent on shot attempts inside the arc, the sixth-lowest percentage allowed. They also rank 11th in average height, per KenPom, so these stats appropriately reflect how they're using size to their advantage.
At the other end, Butler's offense has enjoyed some bright spots this season at 59th in efficiency, though Houston's defense is substantially better. Under head coach Kelvin Sampson, the program has become a defensive juggernaut with a top-10 efficiency rating across the last five seasons - including the current one. The most notable stat in this matchup is turnovers. The Cougars are extremely aggressive ranking 22nd in defensive turnover percentage, a major problem for the Bulldogs as they're at 330th in offensive turnover percentage and 334th in offensive steals. You're hard-pressed to find a bigger mismatch in one category.
It's also important to note both teams prefer to slow the game down. The Cougars have consistently played this way under Sampson and are getting slower each year. They ranked 300th in adjusted tempo during 2019-2020, and are now at 358th. Butler is displaying a similar form of patience at 289th in average possession length.
I initially wanted to take Houston, but the spread is a bit too high for my liking. I would bet the Cougars will win by double-digits, easily, but the opening line (-17.5) makes me less confident against a team like Butler. That being said, given the Bulldogs' defensive strengths and preference for slowing things down, I like our odds of seeing a low-scoring contest. I'm taking the under.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 134.5
Kentucky 
vs. Gonzaga 
The Wildcats suffered their first loss last time out at Clemson 70-66. I picked against Kentucky in that matchup primarily because the Tigers were better on the offensive glass and more aggressive defensively. As it turns out, the same points remain true when going up against Gonzaga.
The Bulldogs are arguably the best-scoring team in the country, and on offense rank second in efficiency, fifth in turnover percentage, 49th in effective field goal percentage, and 58th in rebounding. Kentucky isn't too far behind in those same areas, though they're not nearly as strong on the glass at 165th in offensive rebounding percentage. Gonzaga sits ninth in defensive rebounding, making it less likely for the Wildcats to get put-back opportunities.
Gonzaga's offensive prowess isn't news to anyone, though the defense is where it's different compared to past seasons ranking 18th in efficiency, 36th in effective field goal percentage allowed, and 123rd in turnover percentage. That last number is the biggest defensive difference between the two clubs with the Wildcats ranking highly in most defensive categories except for turnovers at 288th.
Gonzaga has played better overall than Kentucky at both ends of the court, and is much more battle-tested sitting 21st in strength of schedule, per KenPom, with wins over Baylor, Arizona State, San Diego State, and Indiana all by at least eight points. The Wildcats beat Duke on a neutral court, and that's it. The rest of their victories came at Rupp Arena against teams outside the major conferences.
Given the resume and strengths of each team, I'm laying the points with the Bulldogs.
College Basketball Best Bet: Gonzaga -6
Saturday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Saturday:
- Stanford +2.5
- Butler at Houston - Under 134.5
- Gonzaga -6
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
