This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
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Opening week heats up on Friday evening as many notable teams return to the hardwood. Steve Peralta examines three of the most intriguing matchups and offers his best bets for the day.
Arizona at 
Duke
It's hard to ask for a better matchup. On paper, it's as close as it can get. KenPom gives the overall edge to Arizona, which comes in at number six on the overall efficiency standings, with Duke two slots behind at eight.
As most college hoops fans are well aware, Arizona has transformed into a scoring machine since head coach Tommy Lloyd arrived two seasons ago. The Wildcats lost three starters from last year's team, but with the way this team has been recruiting and operating, that might actually open the door for improvement. With Oumar Ballo and Kylan Boswell returning, and new additions Keshad Johnson and Caleb Love, among others, Arizona once again has a high ceiling.
Last year, although Arizona was tenth in offensive efficiency, per KenPom, they were 39th in defense. Not awful, but when shots don't fall, a team like Princeton can pull off an upset. The good news for Arizona is that KenPom is projecting a step-up on the defensive end, with this year's team currently ranked 24th on defense. The Wildcats held Morgan State to 59 points in the opening game, so it appears it is indeed better, but only time will tell. And I should probably mention that Arizona dropped 122 points on Morgan State, so it's safe to say they'll be okay on offense this year.
Duke, meanwhile, returns four of five starters from last season, giving everyone good reason to think they can make a run in March. One important note for Friday, though, one of the regular starters, Mark Mitchell, missed the season opener against Dartmouth. The latest indications are that he'll play on Friday, as Duke coach Jon Scheyer stated on Thursday that "[Mitchell's] still not one hundred percent... hopefully he's on track to play in the game tomorrow." Additional quotes imply that Mitchell is likely to play tomorrow, but nothing is official. In any event, Mitchell is known for playing strong defense, and if he's not at a hundred percent, one would think his defensive abilities might not be at full strength either. Duke is still an elite team even without Mitchell, but it will likely require every hand on deck in order to defend home court.
Arizona might've had more roster turnover compared to Duke, but ultimately I'm betting that the Wildcats are still the better offensive team with more depth. All it takes is Kyle Filipowski falling into foul trouble and suddenly this matchup looks a whole lot different. It's tough to win on the road, but I'm betting the Wildcats' scoring prowess will keep them in the game. I'm taking the points.
College Basketball Best Bet: Arizona +4.5
Texas A&M at 
Ohio State
Texas A&M caught fire near the end of last December, winning 19 of 22 games before losing in the SEC tournament final to Alabama. The season may have ended on a disappointing note with a first-round loss to Penn State in the NCAA tournament, but the exceptional results from this past conference season now give the Aggies high hopes in 2023-24.
Texas A&M lost just a single player from last season due to eligibility (Dexter Dennis). In total, the team's 2022-23 individual leaders in minutes, points, rebounds, assists, steals, three-pointers, and free throws are returning this season for the Aggies. Furthermore, Texas A&M also boasts having the Preseason SEC Player of the Year in Wade Taylor IV, who was one of three NCAA D1 players with 500+ points, 125+ assists and 50+ steals last season.
All in all, the Aggies give us something that's extremely hard to find this week –- certainty. We know who they are and what they can do. It's impossible to be certain about the outcome of a game, but at least we know going into it who and what we're betting on (or against).
Ohio State, meanwhile, has a roster that doesn't give us any real certainty, consisting of a few returning players, a freshman or two, mixed in with a couple of experienced transfers. The other issue is that Ohio State was colossally disappointing last year, going 1-14 at one stretch before landing on a 16-19 final record.
Optimism is the theme this week, but I'm not ready to buy it from Ohio State. The Buckeyes have already played one game and the box score from the 79-73 win over Oakland doesn't help their case. Ohio State was trailing at halftime and neither team led by more than seven for the entire game.
Overall, comparing these two teams side-by-side on November 10, Texas A&M is clearly the more established team. It's possible Ohio State grows throughout the season, but it has to prove itself first. If you believe defense wins and defense travels, then look no further than Texas A&M. The Aggies are 23rd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and held Texas A&M Commerce to 46 points in the season opener. I'm taking the Aggies in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Texas A&M +1.5
Virginia vs. 
Florida
Game note: this game will take place in Charlotte, North Carolina s part of the Hall of Fame series.
It doesn't seem to matter who stays or who goes, Tony Bennett always has his teams ready on defense, and that is once again the case this year. Virginia enters Friday ranked 16th in adjusted defensive efficiency after holding Tarleton State to 50 points in the season-opener.
The only issue for Virginia in recent seasons has been its offensive efficiency, but fortunately for the Cavaliers, that side of the court is expected to be better this season. And it helps when you have floor general Reece Beekman back for his senior season. Beekman is the team's leader and has started in 88 of his 93 games over the last three seasons, so we can't overlook the value of having a skillful and extremely experienced point guard.
Florida, on the other hand, might not have a star veteran point guard like Beekman, although they do have a few promising transfers and players that have breakout potential. The Gators are also notably tall, coming in with the seventh-tallest team among all D1 teams, per KenPom. This is the one area where the Gators might be able to take advantage of Virginia.
Florida's roster has a lot of potential, but with so much uncertainty with transfers and younger players, it's hard to trust them this early in the season. Also, it's worth remembering, Florida finished last season with a 16-17 record. I'm open to the idea they'll be much better this season, but I have to see it before I believe it.
Looking at the big picture, Virginia has the more accomplished coach in Bennett while also claiming the best player in the game in Beekman. It's possible Florida will go on to have a great season, but on the first week of the season, I'm taking Virginia.
College Basketball Best Bet: Virginia -1
Friday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Friday:
- Arizona +4
- Texas A&M +1.5
- Virginia -1
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
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