This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
We have a much lighter offering on Friday's college hoops slate, but at least we've still got another Big East--Big 12 battle and a Big Ten conference game on tap. Here are my predictions for these two intriguing games on Friday night.
Georgetown 
at West Virginia 
The Hoyas are now in year two under head coach Ed Cooley, and they've taken a massive leap. Georgetown ranked 219th in overall efficiency in its last season before coach Cooley joined, and now they rank 85th entering Friday. Optimism is nice, but I should note that the Hoyas have played the sixth-easiest schedule in the nation up to this point, per KenPom, so Friday's test will be revealing.
The Mountaineers, meanwhile, are in their first year under head coach Darian DeVries, and they're also showing signs of a bounce-back season. West Virginia defeated Gonzaga and Arizona in overtime at the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament a week ago, although it lost to Louisville in between those wins, also in overtime. The win against the Bulldogs was impressive on paper, although it's worth noting that Gonzaga held a five-point lead with 20 seconds remaining, giving West Virginia a 98 percent chance of losing the game, per KenPom. Before their trip to the Bahamas, the Mountaineers traveled to Pittsburgh and got wrecked, losing 86-62. Even with a pair of resume-building wins in its pocket, West Virginia has many flaws.
When the Hoyas have the ball on Friday, they face a formidable defensive challenge, although they do one thing extremely well that should help them stay in the game. Georgetown ranks 45th in offensive rebounding percentage, a critical strength in this matchup because West Virginia's biggest defensive flaw, by far, is its inability to secure defensive boards, ranking 273rd in rebounding percentage. The Hoyas are a lengthy team, ranking 23rd in average height, per KenPom, and this shows up in other areas, too. For example, Georgetown ranks third in offensive block percentage, again important because West Virginia ranks 10th in defensive blocks.
When the Mountaineers have the ball, they face a defense that doesn't rank high in efficiency, 85th, but it's near the top of the nation in other specific categories. The Hoyas rank eighth in defensive turnover percentage, 11th in free-throw attempt rate allowed, 10th in two-point field goal percentage allowed, and third in steal percentage. At the same time, West Virginia's offense doesn't stand out in many areas. They rank slightly above average in effective field goal percentage and turnovers. They rank below average in offensive rebounding and free-throw attempt rate.
Sometimes it's tough to bet on a team mired in misery over the past several seasons, but Georgetown is finally trending in the right direction. It might not win on Friday, but it has all the right tools to take advantage of West Virginia's weaknesses. I'm taking the points with the Hoyas in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Georgetown +9.5
Illinois 
at Northwestern 
The last time the Fighting Illini took the court, they delivered a resounding win over Arkansas, 90-77. I'm glad to say I picked Illinois to cover in that game, primarily because it's playing at a high level on both ends of the court and because it does multiple things incredibly well. The Illini have played one other notable opponent, Alabama, and they lost by 13 points, so they still have things to work on, but overall they're looking good.
The Wildcats, on the other hand, suffered a loss at Iowa in their last game, 80-79. They've also lost at Dayton, 71-66, and to Butler, 71-69, so they have many areas to improve. Northwestern also hosted Eastern Illinois in a game that got sent to overtime, an alarming fact considering the visiting team ranks 321st on KenPom's overall efficiency chart.
Much like Illinois' matchup against Arkansas, the biggest difference between the two teams in Friday's game comes down to offensive ability. And similar to the Razorbacks, Northwestern has relied on its defense up to this point, ranking 38th in defensive efficiency but 89th on offense. Illinois, in contrast, has played much more balanced, ranking 18th in offensive efficiency and 24th on defense. The Fighting Illini have great stats in several important offensive categories, ranking top-65 in the nation in effective field goal percentage, turnover percentage, free-throw attempt rate, and best of all, they rank 14th in offensive rebounding. Add it all up, and this is an explosive offensive team any way you look at it.
Both teams in this matchup are playing well on defense, but Illinois is simply better on this end of the court, too. The Fighting Illini rank near the top of the nation in several key areas, including first in effective field goal percentage allowed, 13th in defensive rebounding percentage, and 35th in free-throw attempt rate. Northwestern is decent in these areas, but it's not very close, ranking 117th in effective field goal percentage allowed, 58th in defensive rebounding, and 166th in free-throw attempt rate allowed.
All in all, Illinois is massively better at scoring, and much better defensively. We can't take winning on the road for granted, but in this case, Illinois appears well-suited to get the job done in Evanston. I'm going with the Illini in this one.
Additionally, I'm also taking the under. Northwestern usually does everything in its power to slow down games, ranking 315th or lower in adjusted tempo in three consecutive seasons, including the current one. The Wildcats also seldom attempt shots from behind the arc, ranking 349th in three-point attempt rate. If they do pull off an upset, it will most likely require a heroic defensive performance and many two-pointers. Either way, I like our odds of seeing a lower-scoring game.
College Basketball Best Bet: Illinois -3.5 and Under 143.5
Friday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Friday:
- Georgetown +9.5
- Illinois -3.5
- Illinois at Northwestern - Under 143.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
