This article is part of our College Basketball Picks series.
As Big East Conference Season tips off for a few more teams tonight, Steve Peralta returns with a three-pack of college basketball best bets.
Xavier at Georgetown
Both of these teams share two things in common. They both play much better on offense, and they both love to run. Xavier is playing at the 29th-fastest adjusted tempo in the country with Georgetown playing at the 77th-fastest tempo on offense (per KenPom).
Xavier's offense is among the best in the country, ranking No. 11 in adjusted efficiency while also recording the 10th-highest effective field goal percentage and seventh-highest three-point percentage. The Musketeers also play team ball as well as anyone, as they have the fourth-highest assist rate among all D1 teams. On top of being an exceptional scoring team, Xavier now gets to play the worst defense in the Big East. The matchup gets even worse for Georgetown, considering that Xavier is great at collecting offensive rebounds, ranking No. 116, and the Hoyas have had major issues cleaning up the defensive glass, ranking No. 324 in defensive rebounding rate.
Georgetown has won five games this season, but every single one of them was against a significantly inferior opponent. Georgetown has played four games against teams from high-major conferences, and the Hoyas lost all of them by an average of 12 points per game. Any way you look at it, Georgetown has yet to provide any real evidence that it can compete against a higher-level opponent.
Overall, Xavier seems like a sure bet to score a ton of points in this game, nothing new considering the Musketeers have scored at least 78 points in 10 of 11 games this season, with the one exception being against Duke. Considering we can project a fast tempo in this game, Xavier should be able to pad its lead using some of the extra possessions. There's always a chance Georgetown takes advantage of a leaky Xavier defense and stays in the game, but ultimately I'm betting they won't keep pace. I'll take the Musketeers in a high-scoring game.
College Basketball Best Bet: Xavier -10.5 & Over 156
Creighton at Marquette
Creighton is in a tailspin, now on a five-game losing streak after starting the season at 6-0. The Bluejays were actually underdogs in the first two games of the losing streak, covering both instances, but then lost as a favorite in their last three games. Despite the losses, Creighton is still a balanced team and ranks high in KenPom's overall adjusted efficiency standings, coming in at No. 28 compared to Marquette at No. 31.
Both teams have strong offensive attacks, but the key difference is their defense. Creighton's is noticeably better in adjusted efficiency, but it also does a couple of things particularly well. First, Creighton is collecting defensive rebounds at the 16th-highest rate in the country, so the Bluejays will likely vacuum up any missed shots, as Marquette ranks below average in offensive rebounding rate. Marquette isn't great at defensive rebounding either, so that could come into play in a close game as well. Additionally, Creighton has the lowest defensive free throw attempt rate among all D1 teams, another trait that could very well come into play on the road against an offensive-oriented team like Marquette.
Creighton has only been an underdog two times this season, against Arizona and at Texas, and it covered in both instances. The five-game losing streak is rough, no doubt about it, but the Bluejays will inevitably snap it. I like their chances in today's game. I'll take the points.
College Basketball Best Bet: Creighton +4
Friday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Friday:
- Xavier -10.5
- Xavier at Georgetown - Over 156
- Creighton +4
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