The Big West gets the spotlight all to itself on Thursday's college hoops slate, as virtually every other conference is taking the night off. Here are my predictions for a trio of conference games tipping off on the West Coast.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
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Cal State Bakersfield 
at CSUN
Cal State Bakersfield isn't great defensively, and it has one particular flaw that's hard to ignore. That is, the Roadrunners don't box out opponents. They rank near the bottom of the nation in defensive rebounding percentage, 336th, an area that CSUN can exploit. The Matadors rank 124th in offensive rebounding percentage, so they will likely see plenty of put-back opportunities on Thursday.
When playing in the other direction, CS Bakersfield faces another severe problem: it can't produce from long range. The Roadrunners are making just 26 percent of three-point attempts, while attempting them at the third-lowest frequency among all D-1 teams. As a result, Bakersfield scores just 16 percent of its total points off three-pointers, the second-lowest mark in the nation. A key strength for the Roadrunners has been their focus on the offensive glass, ranking 123rd in rebounding percentage, though CSUN can take away this edge, ranking 59th in defensive rebounding percentage.
Considering CSUN's rebounding advantage at both ends of the court, and the location of Thursday's game, I gotta take the Matadors in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: CSUN -3.5
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Cal Poly at Cal State Fullerton
Cal Poly may have a higher overall efficiency rating than Cal State Fullerton, but the former has critical issues that will likely come into play on Thursday.
The Mustangs' most significant problem is their penchant for giving the ball away. They rank 357th in turnover percentage, and they rank last among all D-1 teams in non-steal turnovers, meaning that they commit more self-inflicted errors than anyone. In stark contrast, the Titans rarely commit a giveaway, boasting an offensive turnover percentage that ranks 18th in the nation.
Another inhibiting factor for Cal Poly is its reliance on long-range scoring. The Mustangs score less than 40 percent of their points off two-pointers, 344th among all D-1 teams, so Cal State Fullerton's softer interior defense is less likely to be exploited. It's also worth noting that, while the Titans don't generally have great defensive numbers, they have been outstanding at securing the defensive glass, ranking 20th in defensive rebounding percentage. Cal Poly shouldn't have many second-chance opportunities on Thursday, that is, assuming they don't turn the ball over on any given possession.
When playing in the other direction, Cal Poly's most significant vulnerability is its interior defense. The Mustangs are allowing opponents to make almost 58 percent of two-point attempts, 324th in the nation. This is welcome news for the Titans, as they have made almost 53 percent of shots inside the arc, above the D-1 average, and they make it a point to attack the paint. They have scored 53 percent of their total points off two-pointers, the 77th-highest percentage, so it's a good bet that they will continue this plan of attack on Thursday.
There's always a chance the Mustangs, a team that lives and dies by the three-point shot, will get hot and shoot their way to victory, though I'm betting their sloppy ball-handling and defense will let the home team pull it out. I'm going with the Titans.
College Basketball Best Bet: Cal State Fullerton +1.5
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UC Davis 
at Hawaii 
The Rainbow Warriors are proving to have a tough defense. Their efficiency rating ranks 31st, and they rank in the top 15 in effective field goal percentage allowed, defensive rebounding, and two-point field goal percentage allowed, holding opponents to just 42 percent. This doesn't bode well for UC Davis, as it hasn't been good offensively, with its efficiency rating sitting at 234th.
The Aggies have been a bit better on the other end of the court. They are above average in fundamental areas, such as forcing difficult shots and taking the ball away, ranking in the top 90 in both effective field goal percentage allowed and turnover percentage.
This also spells trouble for Hawaii's offense, as it's had its own share of scoring problems. Perhaps its most significant being that it often gives the ball away, ranking 306th in offensive turnover percentage. The other limiting factor for Hawaii is its lack of outside scoring: three-pointers account for just 22 percent of its total points, ranking 339th in the nation.
I lean toward picking Hawaii in this matchup, but I ultimately find it difficult to trust its offense to cover a larger spread. Instead, I like our chances of seeing a low-scoring game. I'm on the under.
College Basketball Best Bet: Under 145.5
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Thursday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Thursday:
- CSUN -3.5
- CS Fullerton +1.5
- UC Davis at Hawaii - Under 145.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sources, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
