This article is part of our NBA Picks series.
We've got a beautiful five-game slate for Thursday. I like four props for today's slate. Three are points props, and one is a rebounds prop. Before we dive into things, I'd like to share that I don't place bets unless I believe they likely cash and have perceived value. What do I mean when I say 'perceived value'? I do research and find statistics that back up the stance I am willing to take when making these bets. For all the bets I mention in this article, I put 1 unit (1% of my betting bankroll) each. Let's discuss!
Points Props
Let's first hone in on the game between the Portland Trail Blazers and the Miami Heat to start things off. The Heat have a solid defense as they are sixth in the NBA for defensive efficiency and second in opposing field goal percentage. Also, Miami is tied for 26th in the NBA in pace, which usually spells a lower team total for opposing teams relative to their seasonal average. The Trail Blazers center Enes Kanter has done well recently, but the UNDER 11.5 points prop (-113) for Kantar is likable in this game due to the difficulties the Heat bring on the defensive side of the ball.
Sticking with Portland, UNDER 28.5 points (-113) for Damian Lillard is intriguing because of the reasons discussed for the UNDER points prop for Enes Kantar. Additionally, Miami is second-best in the NBA in opposing 3 point field goal percentage. Lillard has attempted at least ten shots from 3-point territory in nine of his past ten games. Furthermore, Miami allows the fewest points allowed to opposing point guards per game in the NBA (19.8), so there are various reasons to like the respective under points props for Lillard.
Let's shift gears to the game between the Washington Wizards and the New York Knicks. The Russell Westbrook to go UNDER 24.5 points (-113) is lovable. Firstly, the Knicks are 1st in the NBA in opposing field goal percentages and opposing 3 point field goal percentages. Westbrook went 3-for-14 shooting on Tuesday when the Wizards played the Knicks, scoring just 14 points overall. Also, New York is fourth in the NBA in defensive efficiency and plays at the slowest pace, resulting in a projected lower than average team total for opposing franchises. Many statistics suggest there is value in this bet.
Rebounds Props
Switching back over to the game between the Trail Blazers and the Heat, the OVER 6.5 rebounds prop (-127) for Robert Covington is eye-catching. As we discussed, Miami is excellent as a defensive unit. However, the most prominent statistical flaw is their defensive rebound percentage which is 26th in the NBA. Miami allows 10.3 rebounds per game to opposing power forwards and 14.9 rebounds per game to opposing centers. Covington switches between the power forward and center position partly due to all the Trail Blazers' injuries to some of their big guys.
On March 18 against the Pelicans, who are tied for third-best in rebounds to opposing centers and fifth-best in rebounds to opposing power forwards, Covington compiled ten rebounds. Now that this is a more favorable matchup on paper and coming off a nine rebounds performance against the Nets, Covington's chances of going over the 6.5 rebounds prop for today seem likely.
