This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Baseball series.
Let's make Sunday a fun day, or at least a successful one. It's time to get your DFS MLB lineups ready! I have 14 games worth of players to look at in order to make my lineup recommendations. Who stands out to me? It's time to find out! First game starts at 1:35 p.m. EDT.
Pitching
Sonny Gray, MIN at DET ($46): Gray's last two starts have been rough. Like raised-his-ERA-from- 2.47-to-3.71 rough. But on the season, he's posted a 3.33 ERA on the road and a 3.49 FIP for the year. The Tigers sit last in runs scored, so I expect Gray to get back on track.
Martin Perez, TEX at OAK ($41): Perez is enjoying a career year over a decade in, but he's managed to post a 2.68 ERA and 3.14 FIP through 18 starts. The A's have a pitcher-friendly ballpark and also a pitcher-friendly lineup ranking 29th in runs scored and last in OPS.
Merrill Kelly, ARI vs. WAS ($38): After four straight quality starts, Kelly is now at a 3.26 ERA. He's stopped giving up home runs, and I don't know if he can sustain that as he's only allowed 0.8 home runs per nine innings at home since 2020. The Nationals, meanwhile, are down in the bottom-six in offense.
Top Targets
There is perhaps not a hotter hitter in baseball than Freddie Freeman ($26). I feel like I blinked and suddenly he has a .324/.402/.544 slash line with 15 home runs and seven stolen bases. The fact he's so reliably hit for average is key because Alex Cobb doesn't allow many homers, but still maintains a 5.96 road ERA because clearly contact is being made. Freeman? He definitely makes contact.
Since returning to the lineup, Brandon Lowe ($17) has looked no worse for the wear though it's admittedly only been a handful of games. Since 2020, he's recorded a .900 OPS against righties and an .863 on the road. Zack Greinke is expected to start Sunday, and he has fascinating splits with an 1.86 ERA at home and a 7.38 on the road. Kansas City's ballpark is not so pitcher friendly as to make this feel anything more than fluky. I expect regression to arrive on both sides of that split and his 4.64 ERA overall is probably the number to trust among those three.
Bargain Bats
A repeat of Friday's performance is not to be expected, but I still really wanted a Blue Jays hitter. I've landed on Vladimir Guerrero ($16), who's hit .273 and slugged .485. People often focus on his power – and sometimes on why he isn't showing more of it – but Vladito is a career .285 hitter. Brayan Bello is getting a start for the Red Sox and he's struggled to a 10.13 ERA through two outings.
Kole Calhoun ($10) has never been an on-base machine, but his power used to carry his game and that has dipped the last couple of years. However, the lefty does have 11 home runs and has slugged .442 against righties since 2020. Paul Blackburn enters with a 3.62 ERA, but a 7.46 across his most recent five starts. And lefties have hit .282 against him the last two campaigns.
Stacks to Consider
Braves vs. Angels (Reid Detmers): Austin Riley ($24), Dansby Swanson ($19), Travis d'Arnaud ($17)
Detmers has a 4.81 FIP, which is pretty bad. And yet, it's an improvement on last season when he posted a 6.36. Detmers also lists a 6.25 road ERA and has allowed 1.59 home runs per nine innings. Since he's a lefty, I'm stacking three righties.
Riley has actually built upon his breakout campaign of 2021, and that includes already hitting 28 homers. And over the last two seasons, he's slashed .297/.360/.548. Swanson has completed two seasons with double-digit dingers and stolen bases. And with 15 and 14 so far, he might reach his first 20-20. He also boasts a .930 OPS against left-handed pitchers. You can slot d'Arnaud in at catcher and he's averaged .261 to go with a .454 slugging percentage and a .905 OPS versus southpaws.
Twins at Tigers (Drew Hutchison): Carlos Correa ($15), Luis Arraez ($14), Alex Kirilloff ($12)
After a couple years of not pitching in the majors, Hutchison returned last year with the Tigers. He hasn't gotten much better striking out fewer than six batters per nine and walking more than four. His 4.46 ERA is also in line with his career 4.93 mark. There's a reason Detroit didn't insert Hutchison into their starting lineup until it was absolutely necessary.
Correa has been pretty much what we expected for the Twins slashing .281/.354/.460 with 12 homers. His power concerns have largely come on the road having slugged .500 at home. Given Correa was playing almost all his games not at Target Field prior to this season, I think the power on the road is going to pick up. Arraez's .342 average is impressive as is, but that's with him struggling versus lefties. Against right-handed pitchers, he's slashed .364/.435/.484. Kirilloff has been a different player this season on the road with a .997 OPS and a .745 against righties.
Diamondbacks vs. Nationals (Erick Fedde): Josh Rojas ($16), David Peralta ($13), Daulton Varsho ($12)
Since making his MLB debut in 2017, Fedde has been a definitely below-average pitcher. That has continued to 2022 with a 4.91 ERA and 4.98 FIP, in line with a career 5.18 and 5.14. Fedde has given up 1.52 home runs per nine innings and never allowed fewer than 1.27. You can set your watch to his mediocrity on the mound.
Rojas has produced five homers and eight stolen bases on the season, and has a .776 OPS against righties. And over the last three weeks, he's recorded an .881. Peralta lists stark splits, but the southpaw has put up a .792 OPS versus right-handed pitchers. Varsho, who is catcher-eligible, has 13 home runs and five steals and all have come against righties.
