This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
The Best Cy Young Bets to Make for the 2023 AL and NL Awards
The MLB Cy Young Award is given to the pitcher in each league that gets the most votes from the Baseball Writer's Association of America. The award was created in 1956 by the commissioner of baseball Ford Frick in honor of pitcher Cy Young, who died in 1955. There have been money-making trends first detailed by Bill James that accurately identifies the Cy Young winner.
Check in on the latest Cy Young races with up-to-the-minute AL Cy Young odds and NL Cy Young odds here at RotoWire. Looking for a new sportsbook to sign up with for the stretch run of the MLB season, check out BetMGM with the BetMGM bonus code for a first bet offer worth up to $1,000.
The Dominant Characteristics of a Cy Young Contender
Since 1996, only seven of the 50 award-winners had an ERA of 3.00 or higher, and 11 winners with an ERA under 2.00. Of the remaining winners, 64% or 32 pitchers had ERA's between 2.00 and 2.99. These results include starting pitchers and closers, who have won the award once since 1996 and nine times since the award was created.
The Los Angeles Dodgers, Mike Marshall, was the first closer to win the award in 1974. No closer has won the award since the Dodgers Eric Gagne did in the 2003 season and prior to that, the Oakland Athletics Dennis Eckersley won the award in 1992. However, the potential exists for a closer to winning the award this season.
"Closers have won the award once since 1996 and nine times since the award was created in 1955"
The Baltimore Orioles are in first place in the AL East Division and have the best record in the AL at 62-40 for the season. Their closer Felix Bautista is having an outstanding season with 28 saves and has allowed only five earned runs while striking out 96 batters in 49 innings of work. In other words, of the 147 recorded outs of the 49 innings he has accounted for 65% of those outs via strikeout.
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How Do We Bet the Numbers?
Bill James created the Cy Young Points metric to identify the best pitchers in MLB and rank them accurately. The formula is fairly simple.
The bonus of 12 points awarded for the pitcher's team being in first place separates the contenders from the field. So, at this point of the season, and the current standings, we can narrow down the field significantly.
The Atlanta Braves enjoy a 10-game lead over the surging Philadelphia Phillies. The Braves are a near-certainty to win the NL East Division and their ace starter in Spencer Strider instantly becomes a leading contender to win the award. Three of the top-four pitchers ranked by the Bill James Metric are closers in the Milwaukee Brewers Devin Williams and the Cincinnati Reds Alexis Diaz. If the Reds were leading the division race and Diaz got the bonus 12 points, he would still be trailing Williams. The San Francisco Giants Camilo Doval has 31 saves and is ranked fourth, but the Giants have almost no chance to win the NL West division race.
In the AL Cy Young race, there is a clear-cut winner of the award in Baltimore's Felix Bautista, who has amassed outstanding season-to-date statistics that separate him from the field. In the AL divisional there is no leader, the like the Braves, who are in full control of winning the division crown. At this point, though, the only way another pitcher is able to overcome Bautista is if the Tampa Bay Rays won the AL East and their ace Shane McClanahan suffers no more than a few losses.
John Ryan's Best Bets to Win the Cy Young Award
The biggest obstacle for any pitcher to catch up to Bautista is strikeouts. He has 96 strikeouts in just 49 innings of work. The Texas Rangers Nathan Eovaldi has 111 strikeouts spanning 123 ⅔ innings of work and Shane McClanahan has 112 strikeouts over 106 innings of work. So, this pair of starters would need to average about eight to 10 strikeouts per start over the remainder of the season to overcome that deficit and hope that Bautista does not continue to strike out 65% of the batters he faces.
So, Bautista is clearly the best value bet available at +5000 as offered at Caesars, and as high as +8500 as offered at FanDuel. The current favorite is Gerrit Cole, but is severely overvalued at +150 at Caesars and +135 at Fanduel. There are no solid betting reasons to put any money behind him because the ROI is terrible and he is not even on the Bill James Cy Young points metric radar.
In the NL Cy Young race, the best value bet is undoubtedly on Clayton Kershaw priced at +2200 as offered at BetMGM. However, his scheduled return to the rotation has been delayed as reported by the Rotowire fantasy baseball portal. Manager Dave Roberts said Kershaw (shoulder) will not throw a bullpen session Monday, as originally scheduled, but has not suffered a setback, David Vassegh of AM 570 LA Sports reported on Twitter.
"If you are a $100 per game bettor, then betting no more than $25.00 is the pizza bet amount."
The pair of favorites are the Arizona Diamondbacks Zac Gallen, but they have a low probability of overtaking the Giants and the Dodgers to win the NL West. So, my second best bet is on Strider, who is priced at +300 over at the Caesars Sportsbook. I don't like this bet if it is priced below +280 so, if you like this opportunity betting sooner than later is recommended.
- Clayton Kershaw +2200 (BetMGM)
- Spencer Strider +300 (Caesars Sportsbook)
- Felix Bautista +8500 (FanDuel)
