Mound Musings: The Trade Winds Are VERY Gently Blowing

Mound Musings: The Trade Winds Are VERY Gently Blowing

This article is part of our Mound Musings series.

It's that time of year when uniforms (and fortunes) can change for quite a few pitchers. However, the prevailing talk so far has been, "Chirp. Chirp. Chirp." Teams often play a waiting game, hoping to land the best arm(s) available, but once a big name or two finds a new home, things can quickly pick up. Yes, the trade winds have already been blowing, albeit not with any major storm warnings yet, and it's again time to see who has gone where, what it means and what other deals might be on the horizon. There is still time on the clock, so maybe we can speculate on who might still be in play. But, let's start by seeing how changes in latitudes might impact the arms involved so far:

Hunter Harvey to Kansas City:

The first few moves of the trading season seem rather ho-hum at first glance, and Harvey landing with Kansas City could certainly fit that description. However, a lot of readers shop for holds and saves, and I think we may have hit a potential jackpot. Most recently he's been the caddy for Kyle Finnegan in Washington, and as always, durability is a concern. If he stays healthy, a big if, he is probably a better option than James McArthur If you're scrounging for saves, don't wait. Get him now.

Domingo German to Free Agent:

It's an interesting road German has travelled. He broke in with the Yankees in 2017, generally displaying enough upside and flash in

It's that time of year when uniforms (and fortunes) can change for quite a few pitchers. However, the prevailing talk so far has been, "Chirp. Chirp. Chirp." Teams often play a waiting game, hoping to land the best arm(s) available, but once a big name or two finds a new home, things can quickly pick up. Yes, the trade winds have already been blowing, albeit not with any major storm warnings yet, and it's again time to see who has gone where, what it means and what other deals might be on the horizon. There is still time on the clock, so maybe we can speculate on who might still be in play. But, let's start by seeing how changes in latitudes might impact the arms involved so far:

Hunter Harvey to Kansas City:

The first few moves of the trading season seem rather ho-hum at first glance, and Harvey landing with Kansas City could certainly fit that description. However, a lot of readers shop for holds and saves, and I think we may have hit a potential jackpot. Most recently he's been the caddy for Kyle Finnegan in Washington, and as always, durability is a concern. If he stays healthy, a big if, he is probably a better option than James McArthur If you're scrounging for saves, don't wait. Get him now.

Domingo German to Free Agent:

It's an interesting road German has travelled. He broke in with the Yankees in 2017, generally displaying enough upside and flash in the media swarmed New York market to get some people excited. He broke out in 2019, going 18-4 with a 4.03 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP and 153 punchouts in 143 innings. Then it all caved in. He missed 2020, most of that being an 81-game suspension for substance abuse. He agreed to enter alcohol rehab, but also suffered shoulder woes, which cost him a lot of time, and velocity (it has dropped every year since his arrival in 2017).

German has been haunted by homeruns, a problem magnified by the declining velocity, and the Yankees cut him loose following the 2023 season. He signed a minor league deal with the Pirates, but just exercised an opt-out clause in his contract. German had made 11 starts between Single-A Bradenton and Triple-A Indianapolis, posting a 5.36 ERA and 48:28 K:BB over 50.1 innings in 10 appearances at the latter stop.

Trevor Rosenthal to Free Agent:

Things have been so quiet, that I'm mentioning a reliever we haven't seen since 2020. Rosenthal was once a very interesting bullpen arm, but injuries have taken a huge toll. He has reportedly hit 95 mph in encouraging rehab (of course he once averaged 98). As thin as pitching is these days, can he make it back at age 34? I'm doubtful.

Johnny Cueto to Los Angeles (AL):

A long-time favorite, the 38-year-old Cueto recently opted out of a inner-league deal with Texas, and signed on with the Angels. He posted an unattractive 5.92 ERA over eight starts for Triple-A Round Rock, so optimism is probably unfounded. This is more of a fond memories post given the lack of trading activity. Dazzle 'em Johnny!

James Paxton to Free Agent:

Unlike the dartboard targets listed above, Paxton has had a record of generally useful innings. I was a bit surprised when the Dodgers moved him off their 40-man roster, but they have more pitching depth than most teams. Injuries have been a major factor, as he hasn't been even marginally healthy since 2019. We'll see if there is anything left.

And now for some serious fun … speculation!

Our first stop is the beautiful city of Chicago where the White Sox have peddled more players than the guy with the awesome cantaloupe at your favorite farmer's market. They have some position players like maybe Luis Robert and Paul DeJong, but we're looking at pitchers, and guys like Garrett Crochet and Erick Fedde are likely movers. Arguably the hottest commodity of this year's deal day, Crochet is a stud, albeit he may carry the biggest price tag, too, likely bringing a mass of young, blue-chip prospects. 

Just a few miles up the road in Detroit, Jack Flaherty has been pitching like we all knew he could – or at least hoped he still could. He's sporting a 3.13 ERA and an eye-popping 0.96 WHIP supported by 127 strikeouts in just 100 innings. Teams will be asking about him and southpaw Tarik Skubal, but I just can't see the Tigers dealing Skubal. There are certainly other starting pitchers to be considered – if some more teams decide they are sellers, but those guys are at the top of the list.

As interesting as the potential starters look, the relief pool is deeper, and in several cases more appealing. I'm guessing almost every contending team has asked about Oakland's Mason Miller and his 105 mph fastball. So far at least, the A's are playing it close to the vest. He's under team control for years, but just dreaming about the package he might bring has to be teasing the team management.

After Miller, there are a couple other endgamers enjoying strong seasons. Miami lefty Tanner Scott looks like a near guarantee to switch uniforms. He could end up a fulltime closer, or he could be the left side of a tandem (probably best case). The Angels are also pretty clearly in rebuild mode, so Carlos Estevez has to be in the trade discussion mix. His command can get a bit shaky at times, but he's been more consistent this season. Next on my list (there are actually more, too) is the Pirates' pair of David Bednar and veteran Aroldis Chapman. I know Chapman can be a bit of a shotgun with big pattern at times, but I just can't wrap my head around him pitching in a set-up role. My bet is one of them gets dealt so both can close.

Finally, I want to look at a couple potentially major buyers. The Baltimore Orioles and the Philadelphia Phillies have all the pieces to take a shot, almost. Both teams are somewhat dominating, and both have experienced an infusion of incredible young talent, but a little more pitching is on the menu. There was a day when Baltimore closer Craig Kimbrel meant the game was over, but not so much these days. I could see one of the big relief arms landing in Baltimore. I could one landing in Philadelphia, too. They have pretty much exhausted their internal options (Jeff Hoffman and Jose Alvarado) with marginal success, and the lack of competent back of the rotation arms is putting a lot of stress on their bullpen. They desperately need at least one more starting pitcher to provide solid innings, and I think one top shelf starter and a big closer could actually make them the favorites to represent the National League in the World Series.

It's still early, but the possibilities are virtually endless:

At deadline for this article, there are still plenty of names that should or could be circulating. One of the most prominent starting pitchers expected to be a target, the Cubs' Justin Steele, has been mentioned as a possibility for several contenders, but linked to none. Many others have been talked about as "under the radar" possibilities. Besides the buyers already mentioned, there are several more and all need starting pitching, so this may be shaping up as a seller's market. The BIG question is, exactly who are the sellers??? We don't know. I don't even think they know.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

  • I was looking forward to getting fresh look at the Dodgers' River Ryan. I hadn't seen him since early last year when he was at Double-A Tulsa. He looked pretty good against the Giants, especially the first time through the order. He's back of the rotation, but he has reasonably good stuff if he consistently throws strikes.
  • I'm going to say the Yankees Gerrit Cole is back. He was inconsistent in his first 2024 starts, but the command is coming, and he has allowed just one run in each of his last two starts. He tossed over 100 pitches in each of those games so it appears the gloves are off. I expect gawdy numbers the rest of the way.
  • Earlier this week, Robbie Ray returned to the mound for the Giants. He's been inconsistent over the years with injuries often a problem. Of course, he has already missed four months of this season following 2023 Tommy John surgery. So, the question is, who will we get? Will he be an ace, or a wild man?
  • I was actually watching the Astros pitcher move on, but got to see an A's starter, Hogan Harris, pitch shutout ball into the seventh inning. It brought his ERA down to 2.98, but the 1.44 WHIP tells a little different story. He looked pretty good but he was hit fairy hard, just right at people. I'm not ready to jump on board.
  • Here's a blast from the past. If he keeps progressing in his rehab from Tommy John surgery, Matthew Boyd might pop up as Cleveland's fifth starter. He has remade himself the past couple years with better command and fewer homeruns as he has focused more on off-speed stuff. Maybe one to watch?
  • I know this week has been a bit boring, so let's spice it up. THE dream matchup in my book? No question, Pittsburgh's ace of diamonds, Paul Skenes facing Kansas City's hit machine, Bobby Witt. Convince me I'm wrong!

Endgame Odyssey:

The Jays lost the services of Jordan Romano for a few weeks after he suffered elbow problems in late May. He hopefully dodged a bullet when he underwent arthroscopic surgery, which means a potential return in September. The Marlins rode A.J. Puk for quite a while, but he has struggled mightily of late. Puk's struggles will probably open the door for a trade if someone shows interest. Joining the list of matchup closing, the Tigers' primary closer is Jason Foley, but they will use him earlier if the most dangerous part of the lineup is due. Often lefty Tyler Holton is the beneficiary of a save chance. With Evan Phillips bursting into flames regularly, look for the Dodgers to continue using veteran Daniel Hudson in the ninth inning unless they acquire someone before the trade deadline.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Brad Johnson
For more than 30 years, pitching guru Brad "Bogfella" Johnson has provided insightful evaluation and analysis of pitchers to a wide variety of fantasy baseball websites, webcasts and radio broadcasts. He joined RotoWire in 2011 with his popular Bogfella's Notebook.
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