Mound Musings: The Biggest Surprises of 2023

Amazing as it may seem, we are closing in on the final stretch in the 2023 season. To say there have been surprises would be a HUGE understatement. It was difficult to predict pitching performance given the rule changes, and it really hasn't gotten much easier as we moved forward. There have been eye-opening success stories and highly significant disappointments, plus the not so surprising mass of injuries.  

That said, I would like to feature a few pitchers who have impressed me with both solid numbers, and, in some cases, future potential at this point in the season. This is a mix of kids and veterans trying to convince me they are fantasy factors. I have to admit, the surprises on the plus side were much harder to come by than usual because, well, pitching overall is disappointment. I'll start with a few pitchers making at least some positive impact and then touch on a few who have disappointed (even more).

2023 pitching "stars" who have been surprises:

Zac Gallen (Diamondbacks 12-5, 3.24 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) – Here we have a pitcher who came up through the Miami system (generally successful developing young arms) and now works for a team with Brent Strom on its coaching staff (his impact on pitchers is almost miraculous). Net result: Gallen is better than ever, and he along with Merrill Kelly and several others have turned the also-ran Diamondbacks into playoff contenders. You're going to see me mention this a lot. Gallen is a pitcher – not a thrower. He has very good, but not really overpowering stuff, he has a pretty smooth, repeatable motion, and, surprise, surprise, he can generally throw any of his pitches for strikes at any time. I wonder why more teams/coaches/pitchers haven't figured out that formula out.

Justin Steele (Cubs 13-3, 2.79 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) – Did I think Steele could potentially have a positive impact with the Cubs? Absolutely. Have I been surprised by how soon and to what level it has taken place? Yep. Steele has good, but not great, stuff, so stardom was not a forgone conclusion. Young and left-handed always adds to the challenges a pitcher faces, but Steele isn't really that young – he's 28 – so he worked through much of that before he reached the majors. He also pitches for a weaker defensive team, so what has been the magic formula? Two things stand out (and seem to have become ever more important lately). Steele has a somewhat deceptive delivery, which hitters have had problems recognizing, and he now demonstrates a consistent ability to locate all his pitches, especially with the excellent movement he generates.

Spencer Strider (Braves 13-4, 3.75 ERA, 1.12 WHIP) – Strider is both a stud and an enigma. He has established an MLB record for the fewest innings needed to reach 200 strikeouts (123.1 innings), but he also carries a ho hum 3.75 ERA (but a strong 1.12 WHIP). In all fairness, he has been somewhat unlucky with a .346 BABIP, so that ERA could drop a bit as the season progresses. He really didn't overly impress me when I first saw him, but it didn't take long for me to become a believer. He has very good stuff, but his ability to miss bats is becoming legendary. So, is he really a surprise? I'm going to say yes because his strikeout rate (14.0/9) is almost unbelievable. Almost. I am inclined to say there is more there, and we haven't seen his best yet.

Eury Perez (Marlins 5-4, 3.19 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) – I have always liked Perez's stuff, and despite his age (he won't be 21 until next spring), I held out hope that he could work up to his gaudy potential sooner rather than later. When Baltimore's Grayson Rodriguez graduated, he easily slipped into the top spot on my Kids Watch List. It's not going to last long, as his graduation is imminent. His claim to fame is a high 90s fastball that must look like a runaway train. He's 6'8", and his motion underscores his extension, making it seem like he is releasing the ball halfway to home plate. He's been facing much older players throughout his pro career, but for the most part he just turns things up a notch. He does occasionally need to trust his stuff even more and throw strikes, especially early in counts. Sometimes young pitchers decide to be aggressive and trust their stuff, but when a rough outing comes along – and they always do – doubts can resurface, and the nibbling can return. Displaying incredible maturity, for the most part he is avoiding that trap, giving himself a chance to succeed long term.

Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers 11-4, 2.48 ERA, 1.03 WHIP) – I don't think many people saw Kershaw coming this year. Sure, he's a future Hall-of-Famer, he pitches for one of the best teams in the game, and he has long since transitioned to a standout finesse pitcher, but he's 35 years old. Doesn't age catch up to you and take some of the edge off? I think it does, but maybe the mound wisdom is making a bigger difference these days. Look at many of the more successful pitchers this year. In a season where good performance is more challenging than ever before, names like Verlander, Scherzer, Cole, Stroman and yes, Kershaw, stand out. Do these greybeards have some magical immunity to the modern struggles? I don't think so. I just think the lack of fundamental training in their early years is catching up with many younger arms. I hesitate to think what things will be like when these old-timers hang it up.

And now, the flip-side of the coin:

Noah Syndergaard (Guardians 2-6, 6.57 ERA, 1.45 WHIP) – Man, this one hurts. One of my favorite pitchers for many years, Thor was the definition of "power pitcher" when that was the best description out there. Then, injuries started sapping that power in 2019 and led to Tommy John surgery, which took him out of 2020 and 2021. Okay, pitchers routinely come back from TJ. It's just a bump in the road. But the bumps didn't go away. In 2022 his velocity was down about four miles per hour. I can live with that. It's just taking longer, and he has altered his motion and pitch mix to protect that rebuilt arm. Now, in 2023, that velocity is down another tick. He still struggles to contain the running game, which has experienced a rebirth, and hitters are squaring him up. Will he be able to transition to a finesse pitcher? I hope so, but I honestly don't know. He doesn't look comfortable and confident on the mound like he did in his heyday. Maybe that will come with time, but the clock is ticking.

Jameson Taillon (Cubs 7-7, 5.71 ERA, 1.39 WHIP) – I have touted Taillon since he turned pro, sometimes looking good and sometimes being stung by his long list of injuries. Then there is this year. He's now 31-years-old, and I thought with a healthy season he could potentially shine. This year hasn't been the year to shine, and Taillon took bad pitching to new levels. His collapse is the result of several factors. His fastball has lost a bit of zip, his command has been spotty, which has led to expanded pitch counts and grooving pitches when behind in the count. His strikeout rate is down, his walk rate is up, and he has allowed homeruns at an alarming rate. Add pitching in front of a poor defensive team, and you have all the ingredients of a failed pitcher. I'd like to think he might turn it around next year, but I want to see him pitching for a different team.

Brady Singer (Royals 8-8, 4.91 ERA, 1.34 WHIP) – Another leader of the long list of major disappointments. Let's face it, expecting a huge number of wins from a Royals starting pitcher would be pretty unrealistic – not that I don't fall prey to such optimism from time to time. That said, his eight wins might be considered just a bit of a bonus. Face it, his ERA at just under 5.00 is ugly, but not necessarily Medusa-ugly. His ERA actually hovered in the 6.00 to 7.00-plus through May/June, but Singer then turned a corner and stated posting useful innings. Not surprisingly, the quality innings coincided with him more consistently throwing strikes. Singer has walked just seven batters in his last seven starts covering 44 innings. I will give him credit for staying on the mound, as he has logged 136 innings (only 20 pitchers have tossed more). Singer is one of those guys who might be underpriced in drafts next spring. Add him to your list.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• I had the opportunity to watch Boston's Chris Sale in his start against Detroit. He pitched into the fifth inning in his first start since early June, but he was dazzling. We're talking 2018 dazzling. If the 34-year-old can manage to maintain the stuff he displayed in that start, you can move him waaaaay up on your watch list.
• Arguably perhaps the most fun pitcher to watch these days, Kodai Senga of the Mets mixes in that jaw-dropping fork-ball, and hitters aren't really picking it up very effectively. I just wish he would be a little more consistent with his command. When he starts falling behind, hitters learned to ignore that dancing delivery.
• It's official. Tampa Bay's ace, Shane McClanahan will undergo Tommy John surgery. I hate it. I mean I seriously hate it. I have followed this game for well over 50 years, truly enjoying the growth, development and regular playing time of the game's stars. Now it's a crap shoot. Scratch him off the 2024 list.
• The Dodgers are definitely enjoying the rookie season of Bobby Miller. He started off great, struggled a lot in June, but he has adjusted and that is the best news you can have. Adjustment is the key to longevity on the mound, and he has been exceptionally sharp as he displays a lot of maturity. He's a good one.

Endgame Odyssey:

Let's continue our ongoing game of musical closers. The Mets appear to have slipped into a matchup committee of lefty Brooks Raley and righty Adam Ottavino depending on who is scheduled to hit in the seventh, eighth or ninth innings. I continue to follow the Orioles' Shintaro Fujinami. They have used him as an opener, in long relief and in the late innings. He even collected a save in an extra innings game (Felix Bautista was probably unavailable). If this guy ever consistently throws strikes, watch out. We've been keeping an eye on the Angels pen as Carlos Estevez displays a lot of volatility (sometimes), however, they keep calling on him in the ninth and he has so far been effective enough to keep his job. Earlier this week the Rangers' Will Smith blew a save, but it has happened infrequently enough that he is probably still safe, even with veteran Aroldis Chapman waiting in the wings. Toronto's Jordan Romano logged two strikeouts in a clean inning to register a save upon his return from the injured list. Expect to see him working the ninth going forward. The Cardinals' Giovanny Gallegos is doing his best to convince the team he is a setup man and not a closer. Hunch players might consider a flyer on JoJo Romero.