Mound Musings: AL West Draft Day Targets

Over the past five weeks, we have checked in on the spring happenings around each division. This sixth segment features a look at the American League West. Hopefully you've had a chance to weigh the pros and cons of the majority of arms competing for rotation spots, and you are prepared to field a value-laden pitching staff heading into the 2019 season. We're in deep stretch, so let's look at the: 

American League West

Houston Astros – The Astros have a couple of proven, quality starters, a few young guys with upside, and they all have the luxury of pitching in front of an exceptionally potent offense. Justin Verlander has enjoyed the move to Houston, where he pitches in games every five days that can result in post-season play. Hopefully you bought low when he was turning in a couple mediocre seasons in Detroit. He's not done yet. And that worked so well, they then went and landed another potential ace in Gerrit Cole. He was haunted by the long ball last year and posted numbers well below his ceiling. He found his groove with the Astros, too, and I think you can expect the same going forward. Beyond the top pair, the rotation looks a little different.  With Lance McCullers out for the year (Tommy John surgery), they will be followed by Collin McHugh and Wade Miley. That's a significant dropoff – at least temporarily. McHugh is better suited to bullpen work (note his performance out of the pen last season), while Miley found a glass slipper in Milwaukee and could turn into a pumpkin this year. Brad Peacock, another probably better off in the pen, will likely start the year as the fifth starter. But, it could all be temporary. They have top-shelf young talent throughout the system. There already has been a lot of chatter about Josh James. A quadriceps injury slowed him down the spring, so he's probably headed to the pen until he builds up starter stamina. He has a great arm, and probably a good future, but don't get too carried away. He needs better command and more consistent secondary stuff to truly take the next step. And, it gets even better. Forrest Whitley actually has a Verlander/Cole ceiling, but he's still learning the trade and probably won't arrive until late this season. He's got it all. Big arm, lively fastball, very good slider and curve, and the real gem, an exceptional change. He could help late this season, and you seriously want him in keeper/dynasty formats. 

The Astros also have a pretty deep bullpen lead by closer Roberto Osuna, whom they acquired from Toronto last season. I expect him to be near the top of the list in the saves category. He'll be supported by a capable cast of Ryan Pressly, Will Harrisand Hector Rondon, while Framber Valdez chips in from the left side (he could also see some starts, serving as a swingman). And, they'll hope to welcome back set-up man Joe Smith around midseason following his Achilles surgery. Finally, I haven't forgotten Chris Devenski. He was a big disappointment last year in fantasy circles, but I just think expectations were too high for innings pitched and strikeouts. Look for a more normal workload, making him an average noncloser relief option.

Recapping the Astros:

The arm to own: Forrest Whitley (he's not going to get cheaper)

He's not for me: Wade Miley

Best of the bullpen: Roberto Osuna

Los Angeles Angels – The Angels are yet another franchise entering the season with a load of health concerns in their pitching ranks. Their No. 1, Shohei Ohtani, won't pitch at all this year after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Luckily, they will be able to keep his bat in the lineup. That leaves the mantle of staff leader(s) to a pair offering similar value equations. Tyler Skaggs and Andrew Heaney have some ability but both lefties still are looking for the consistency to be relied upon by the Angels (and their fantasy owners). When each is healthy, I like Skaggs a bit better than Heaney, and he was really turning heads in the first half last season. He has had several arm issues (and has suffered a minor forearm strain this spring), but it was knee and hip woes that popped up last year. Heaney has dealt with a chronic elbow issues, including this spring, which makes him riskier yet. Two interesting arms have recently joined the Angels' staff. Trevor Cahill can be pretty good in spurts, but I'm not convinced he has returned to his form of several years ago; at least not long term. Conversely, I did see flashes of the premium Matt Harvey in the second half of last season. Remember, Harvey was once included in conversations regarding guys like Syndergaard and DeGrom. That was before a bout of Big Apple syndrome and thoracic outlet surgery. I think he's about ready to remind everyone how high his ceiling once was. Jaime Barria, Felix Pena and eventually Nick Tropeano (he's expected back in late April) probably will all see the rotation at various times this year. I like Barria the best of that trio, but if they are in your rotation plans, the waiver wire could be your best friend. 

This was the definition of an unsettled bullpen, but the team brought in Cody Allen to hopefully help settle things down. He has the experience – 147 saves over the past five years – but I have never really considered him a true closer. Hey, that's me. He's likely to be on a long leash and will generally get the ball in the ninth inning. The guy I really like in their pen is Ty Buttrey. He impressed me last season and will likely serve as the top set-up guy, waiting to someday inherit the closer's gig. Ideally, Justin Anderson will throw enough strikes, and Cam Bedrosian will stay healthy long enough, to provide some useful work. Neither is a given, but you have to like Anderson's potential. One more name to file away. Daniel Hudson possibly could find his way into some meaningful innings. Not a sure thing, but maybe.

Recapping the Angels:

The arm to own: Matt Harvey (c'mon, take a leap of faith)

He's not for me: Andrew Heaney

Best of the bullpen: Cody Allen, but Ty Buttrey isn't far away

Oakland A's – The A's will start 2019 without two arms that figure to find their way into the rotation. Probably the best starter on the staff, Sean Manaea, had shoulder surgery last fall. He's progressing well in rehab and is expected to return around midseason. I was also watching Jharel Cotton before Tommy John surgery took him down last spring. He's likely to be back about the same time, but keep in mind, it's usually a few months before all the rust wears off following a long layoff. That said, the top of the current rotation is led by a couple journeymen veterans. Mike Fiers came over from Detroit last August and flourished, but we've seen brief stretches like this before from him. I'm passing. Marco Estrada came to town in the offseason. A more pitcher-friendly park should help curb his home run tendencies, but he's a back-of-the-rotation type in fantasy. Now's a good time to bring up the brightest spot in the rotation. At some point, but not right out of the gate (shoulder strain), southpaw Jesus Luzardo will take a regular turn. He's the real thing and has the stuff to be effective right away. I'd actually like to see him get more seasoning in the high minors, but he's definitely a guy to own, especially in keepers. After Luzardo, the excitement dies down. Brett Anderson should have a spot as long as he's healthy – always a concern with him. Frankie Montas and A.J. Puk could potentially collect some starts at some point this year and both have some upside, albeit with quite a bit of risk at this stage of their development. Montas has some pretty impressive stuff, but he has yet to consistently translate it to the MLB level. Puk is a highly regarded prospect, probably just a notch behind Luzardo, but he's another recovering from Tommy John surgery and unlikely to be in Oakland before July. Placeholders like Daniel Mengden and/or Chris Bassitt will probably see some starts while the kids get ready and the walking wounded get healthy, but they aren't for you.

The A's have a bullpen full of interesting guys. Their closer is Blake Treinen, He certainly staked his claim to the gig last season, and while a match of that microscopic ERA and WHIP isn't too likely, he should remain one of the top closers in the game. Now for the fun. Topping my list are two former closers. The man with the bow, Fernando Rodney, will probably only shoot an occasional arrow when Treinen needs a rest, but I love the guy. And, Joakim Soria logged a lot of saves for my fantasy teams back in his prime, but that was then. He's a set-up guy now. I liked what I saw when Ryan Buchter was in San Diego just a couple years ago, and he's their top lefty. Liam Hendriks and Lou Trivino are also competent relievers who will help bridge to the late-inning guys.

Recapping the A's:

The arm to own: Eventually Jesus Luzardo or Sean Manaea

He's not for me: Mike Fiers

Best of the bullpen: Blake Treinen

Seattle Mariners – It appears to be a changing of the guard in Seattle. For many years, Felix Hernandez has been the name associated with Mariners' pitching, but he has now logged more than 2,600 major league innings. That equates to his arm being about 40, and it looks like he may be in the twilight of his career. Marco Gonzales and Yusei Kikuchi will be in line at the top of the rotation. Since developing a cutter, Gonzales is doing a better job of handling righty swingers and he could be a relatively useful fantasy starter. Kikuchi is more of an unknown. He put together some quality years in Japan, including a sparkling year in 2016, so while he doesn't have the ceiling of an Ohtani or Darvish, there is some solid potential. I like the fact that most pitchers in Japan seem to learn the "art" of pitching pretty early in their careers. Following the first pair, Mike Leake should have a spot, and he's capable of filling in at the back of a fantasy rotation. After that, things are less certain. Wade LeBlanc should have a spot, but a lower strikeout rate and average stuff make him more applicable in deep or AL-only leagues. King Felix will probably begin the year as the fifth starter where they can control his innings, and that's appropriate, One name in their minor league system is worth monitoring. I would expect to see Justus Sheffield get a shot at a starting role sometime this summer. He still needs to refine his secondary stuff to avoid a move to the pen, but it's possible given his arm and overall skillset. Roenis Elias will likely serve as a swingman. 

After a brilliant season, Edwin Diaz is now with the Mets. Earlier in the offseason, things looked pretty cloudy in the Seattle bullpen, but they added Hunter Strickland who will step in as the primary closer. I liked him in San Francisco before he broke his hand in a bout with frustration, and I'm hoping he has his emotions more under control. He'll be preceded in games by Dan Altavilla, who has some dynamic, albeit sometimes inconsistent stuff, and Shawn Armstrong after he returns, probably in a couple weeks, from a minor oblique strain. Cory Gearrin, Chasen Bradford and lefty Zac Rosscup will attempt to provide some higher-leverage innings, but this is a thin bullpen.

Recapping the Mariners:

The arm to own: Yusei Kikuchi

He's not for me: Felix Hernandez

Best of the bullpen: Hunter Strickland

Texas Rangers – The Rangers enter the season with a virtually brand new pitching staff. That can be a good thing but probably not in this case. Mike Minor has gone from a struggling, back-of-the-rotation starter, to being a pretty successful reliever and now back to a rotation spot. Not only a spot, but the No. 1 spot. That pretty much sums up the state of the rotation in Texas. Minor has adapted and should be relatively useful, but for fantasy purposes, he's a low-mid- to back-of-the-rotation guy. Lance Lynn is also now in the mix. He's never been a favorite of mine. While he does occasionally string together a few solid starts, when he melts down, his results can be horrific. Two guys returning from Tommy John surgery are next up on the list. Neither Edinson Volquez nor Drew Smyly pitched at all last year. In fact, Smiley hasn't pitched in two years. Fringy at their best, but given the limited workloads and the likely accumulated rust, I'd have a very difficult time recommending them this season. Then there's Shelby Miller. He attempted to come back from TJ surgery last June, was annihilated in four starts, then went back on the disabled list with elbow inflammation. That should scream warning. Interestingly, he has (or had) some upside, but he would have to prove himself in a big way at this point. Jason Hammel could also figure into the mix, if he makes the team. There's perhaps at least some potential help on the way. Yohander Mendez is not a great prospect and is recovering from a UCL strain, so he won't be back until at least June. Unfortunately, their best pitching prospects, Hans Crouse and Cole Winn, are still at least a couple tears from being ready.

When there aren't all that many bright spots on your staff, it's nice when at least one is exceptionally bright. I think that describes closer Jose Leclerc. I was high on him when it was apparent the Rangers needed a new endgamer last year. I like his stuff, I like his mound presence and I like his approach. They have bolstered what was a very thin pen, adding Shawn Kelley and Zach McAllister. Kelley bounced back last year, and, more than anything, needs to stay healthy. McAllister really stumbled last season, but he's better than he showed. Both figure to see higher leverage innings, with McAllister notably being used in multiple inning situations this spring. They will be joined by swingmen Jesse Chavez, Chris Martin and Connor Sadzeck with all likely to see a lot of work given the innings limitations the rotation will face with so many arms returning from long-term injuries.

Recapping the Rangers:

The arm to own: Mike Minor

He's not for me: Lance Lynn

Best of the bullpen: Jose Leclerc

Next week, we'll jump into an expanded view of the Endgame Odyssey with an eye for potential fantasy value.