This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets Today: MLB Playoff Picks for Wednesday, October 4
Season: 108-136-1 -52.94 units
Prior Article:2-6 -2.56 units
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Texas Rangers 
at Tampa Bay Rays 
The Rays played about as ugly of a game that a team can play yesterday between all of the errors and lack of hitting. That was the fourth time the Rays have been shutout at home with two of them against the Astros. They are now down 0-1 in the series and need to win today to remain alive.
Zach Eflin has been solid all year with incredible control (186:24 K:BB) which I like in this spot as he will limit baserunners for the Rangers. He was the 10th most profitable pitcher at +672 in 31 starts. Nathan Eovaldi has not looked good since coming back on September 5th (9.30 ERA, 1.92 WHIP, 21:13 K:BB), while allowing four home runs in the last two starts.
There is a significant edge in the starting pitching matchup for the Rays and I will lean on the F5 plays for it. The Rays averaged 3.12 runs F5 on the season at home which was third best.
MLB Best Bets for Rangers at Rays
- Rays -0.5 F5 for 0.5 unit (DraftKings -110)
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Toronto Blue Jays 
at Minnesota Twins 
The low-scoring game prediction paid off yesterday but the Kevin Gausman OVER total outs prop did not correlate as Royce Lewis took him deep not once, but twice. It clearly looked like the Twins knew something about Gausman's pitches as they were laying off the splitter the whole game.
Let's take a look at the starting pitching matchup - for the Twins they are going with Sonny Gray who has been outstanding all season and has a 1.54 ERA in his last 7 starts along with 36 strikeouts and 5 walks. Gray has not allowed more than 1 earned run in his last 5 home starts. Jose Berrios has a 4.54 ERA in his last 7 starts, but also has an outstanding K:BB with 44:8.
The Twins strikeout a ton which will help Berrios (10.21 per game highest in baseball) and these pitchers have averaged around 6 innings per start in their last 7 starts respectively. This is a must win game for the Jays, but I do not feel comfortable going against Gray. Berrios has hit this strikeout prop in 5 straight and is 10-3 to the OVER on it over his last 13 road starts.
MLB Best Bets Blue Jays at Twins
- Blue Jays/Twins UNDER 8 runs for 0.5 unit (DraftKings -110)
- Jose Berrios OVER 4.5 strikeouts for 0.25 unit (BetMGM -150)
Arizona Diamondbacks 
at Milwaukee Brewers 
While I was on the UNDER in this game yesterday, a lot played out how I thought in that the Brewers would jump on Brandon Pfaadt. But the Dbacks were able to hit several home runs against Corbin Burnes which I did not account for and the under almost came through until the 9th inning when Arizona won 6-3.
Another must-win game for the home favorite, but a much tighter pitching matchup with Zac Gallen against Freddy Peralta.
A lot has been made of the season Gallen has had, but his home/road splits are significant with him having an almost 2-run higher ERA on the road. His WHIP is 1.20 on the road vs. 1.03 at home. In general, the data on the road for Gallen is significantly worse. He has not been good over his last 7 starts with 3 solid starts, but 4 very shaky ones (4.93 ERA, 1.36 WHIP). This could be a sign of wearing down. His road ROI was -$455 which was one of the lowest for starting pitchers. I mention this because a ton of people are just blindly saying "Give me Gallen at plus money". Pump the brakes before doing that and look at the data.
Peralta's strikeout numbers are home are significantly better than on the road (12.8 vs. 9.7 K/9), but the Dbacks strikeout the fourth fewest in baseball. His five home starts have been incredible with 54 strikeouts in 30.2 innings. I will lean on Peralta outpitching Gallen in the first five today.
MLB Best Bets Diamondbacks at Brewers
- Brewers -0.5 F5 for 0.5 unit (DraftKings +114)
Miami Marlins 
at Philadelphia Phillies 
I mentioned the Phillies being able to smash left-handed pitching all year, especially at home and they got to Jesus Luzardo in last night's game. I see the same outcome tonight against another left-handed starter in Braxton Garrett. While Aaron Nola has not been as sharp this year versus past seasons, he is still a very solid reliable pitcher and I will look for the Phillies to close out the Marlins tonight. They look to be primed for another deep run in the postseason.
MLB Best Bets Marlins at Phillies
- Phillies -1.5 for 1 unit (DraftKings +140)
- Marlins/Phillies OVER 8 runs for 0.5 unit (DraftKings -110)
MLB Best Bets Recap
- Rays -0.5 F5 for 0.5 unit (DraftKings -110)
- Blue Jays/Twins UNDER 8 runs for 0.5 unit (DraftKings -110)
- Jose Berrios OVER 4.5 strikeouts for 0.25 unit (BetMGM -150)
- Brewers -0.5 F5 for 0.5 unit (DraftKings +114)
- Phillies -1.5 for 1 unit (DraftKings +140)
- Marlins/Phillies OVER 8 runs for 0.5 unit (DraftKings -110)
