Top MLB Betting Picks: August 27th Best Bets & Predictions
Summer is almost over, the pennant chases are on. Let's try to get some winners out of today's full MLB slate before time runs out!
Season record 28-30-1, -4.15 units
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Red Sox at Orioles
The 2025 season has obviously not gone off as planned in Charm City. Early injuries and some questionable choices in addressing their starting rotation did in the Orioles season. It is now about the future and seeing what they have in their ever-promising stockpile of young hitters. It will likely produce dividends in 2026, but for now its just an incredibly depleted lineup. Jordan Westburg has a .799 OPS when healthy, but he's only played in 73 games and is currently on the shelf.
Ramon Laureano and Ryan O'Hearn looked great for the O's, but then got moved to San Diego at the deadline. What's left is basically Gunnar Henderson, Colton Cowser and a lineup of promising but unproven bats. Since the deadline, Baltimore has hit .220 with an 82 wRC+, 4th worst in MLB. They've scored just 6 runs in their last 3 games, including a big goose egg last night.
They face Brayan Bello tonight, and the Red Sox righty is in the midst of a breakout season. He's pitched to a 3.07 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. And he's gathering steam as the season rolls on. Over 16 starts and a 5-inning "follow" since May 23rd he has a 2.78 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. And he's become incredibly consistent as he's thrown a Quality Start in 12 of his last 15 outings. If there's a ding on Bello it's that he still does not pile up the strikeouts, as his 19.6% K% remains suboptimal. He has succeeded in his career by controlling contact well, as his LA against is a super low 6.5 with a 6.8% Barrel%.
The Orioles will counter with mostly Roansy Contreras. I say "mostly" since he's expected to pitch in a bulk role today as lefty reliever Dietrich Enns actually opens. Look for Contreras to max out at about 2 times through the order. He has yet to pitch in MLB this season, but he's fared reasonably in Norfolk for the AAA Orioles. He's pitched to a 3.78 ERA, though with just 70 K's in 91.2 IP. The Red Sox, of course, are a quality opponent, but they're not the scariest offense in MLB by any stretch as they have a 98 wRC+ in August with just 22 homers, 6th worst in the league over that span. Roman Anthony looks every bit the future superstar as he has 4 of those homers and a .392 OBP over the month.
I like the Sox to win but I like the under better as I'm looking for a bit of a slog like we saw in the 1st two games of this series.
MLB Best Bet
- Red Sox-Orioles Under 9 (-104 BetRivers)
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Tigers at Athletics
Don't look now, but The Swingin' A's are back! At least the bats are back. Since the All-Star Break, the Athletics of Sacramento have a 116 wRC+, 5th best in MLB. Shea Langeliers has gone absolutely nuclear, hitting .331 with 17 bombs since then. And "Bangeliers" is far from alone. Rookie-of-the-Year favorite Nick Kurtz has a 240 wRC+ since the break with 10 homers, and Tyler Soderstrom has re-found his stroke as well as he's slashing .307/.371/.520 over that stretch.
The A's pitching? Well, not so much. They start Luis Morales tonight, and while his 1.72 ERA and 1.15 WHIP look excellent in his first 15 innings, it looks like a bit of an early mirage. He's walked a scary 12.7% of the batters he's faced and his 4.54 xERA and 4.56 SIERA both suggest he's been the benefactor of some really good batted ball fortune early on.
Casey Mize will try to cool the A's hot bats tonight, and he's had a bit of a rough go lately. In 7 starts back to July 12th, he has a 6.54 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. The ERA estimators do suggest he's more meh and unlucky than bad as he has a 4.06 SIERA. Still, his 11% Barrel% and 90.6 EV allowed in this run are problematic facing a hot lineup in their launching pad of a stadium. Ballpark Pal has Sutter Health as a +21% Runs factor and whopping 33% Home Run factor for tonight. I like the odds on the over for tonight.
MLB Best Bet
- Tigers-Athletics Over 10.5 (-105 ESPN BET)
MLB Best Bets Recap
- Red Sox-Orioles Under 9 (-104 BetRivers)
- Tigers-Athletics Over 10.5 (-105 ESPN BET)
