This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets Today: Free Expert MLB Picks for Friday, Aug. 18
Season: 83-99-1 -39.74 units
Prior Article: 1-3 -1.95 units
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Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
This game is more of a play against the Yankees and on the Red Sox pitcher Brayan Bello than it is having confidence in the Red Sox. They have played up or down to their competition all year, and own the Yankees, 5-1, in the season series.
The Yankees are starting Jhony Brito with his 4.52 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 47:23 K:BB. Bello looks to be wearing down in his first full major-league season, but if you look at his day/night splits there is something to consider. His day stats are abysmal with a 0-4, 7.33 ERA, 1.70 WHIP. At night he is 8-3, 2.71 ERA, 1.12 WHIP.
MLB Best Bets for Red Sox at Yankees
- Red Sox ML for 1 unit (DraftKings -125)
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Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians
This is about as even a matchup as you can get with the moneyline split down the middle and the total landing at the default 8.5 runs. Both starting pitchers have been decent in Matt Manning and Xzavion Curry (both have a sub 1.20 WHIP), which has me looking at the UNDER on the game total.
The good thing is we have some recent data that also helps the UNDER, as the Tigers are 5-1 to the UNDER in their last six. The Guardians are 5-0, 8-2, 14-6 to the UNDER at home in their last five, 10 and 20 games. The Guardians have averaged just 2.4 runs per game in their last seven at home.
MLB Best Bets for Tigers at Guardians
- Tigers/Guardians UNDER 8.5 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel -105)
San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Braves
I have written about the Braves runline and OVER team totals at great length, and had to take a pause from them during their recent stretch. But this is a spot where I think we can jump back on this horse. I always love the Braves at home and they are catching a Giants team that is reeling, going 3-7 over their last 10 and have been outscored by 14 runs. Meanwhile, the Braves are 8-2 in their last 10 and 8-1 in their last 9 at home. They have outscored opponents by 6.2 runs per game in those last 10 and, yes, the Mets were a part of that run, but still all year they have smashed teams at home.
MLB Best Bets Giants at Braves
- Braves -1.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -108)
- Braves OVER 5.5 runs for 1 unit (BetMGM +105)
MLB Best Bets Recap
- Red Sox ML for 1 unit (DraftKings -125)
- Tigers/Guardians UNDER 8.5 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel -105)
- Braves -1.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -108)
- Braves OVER 5.5 runs for 1 unit (BetMGM +105)
