This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets Today: Expert MLB Picks for Monday, July 29
Monday brings us a healthy slate of games with a total of 12, the early game starts at 3:05 ET with the Blue Jays visiting the Orioles in the first game of a doubleheader. While there isn't a game in Coors, 10 of the 12 games on the docket have an over/under of 8.5 or nine runs, suggesting there will be at least a few high-scoring affairs. Let's take a look at what to wager on tonight.
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Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers Best Bet
Total Runs Over 7 +113 (BetRivers)
A few factors push me towards liking the order tonight. First, while Jack Flaherty is listed as the starter, there's a chance he gets pulled at some point during the day and replaced with a lesser starter if he's going to get dealt in a trade before tomorrow's deadline. These two starters – Jack Flaherty and Tanner Bibee – just faced off last Wednesday and each gave up only one run (Flaherty's was unearned). The contrarian in me thinks this will be more of a high-scoring affair. Using actual analysis, this means the batters have seen the opposing pitcher recently, which typically favors the hitters. While they both pitched great last Wednesday, their ERAs added together are just under 6.50, so it's highly unlikely we see a game close to the previous 2-1 score.
Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox Best Bet
Seattle Mariners Moneyline +110 (DraftKings)
Logan Gilbert has been fantastic this season with the lowest WHIP (0.86) in baseball leading to a 2.72 ERA. A lot of his advanced stats this season are career-highs, including ground ball rate (44.2 percent), swinging strikeout percentage (14.1) and BB/9 (1.68), while averaging a 96.2 miles per hour (MPH) fastball. Gilbert has also been better on the road the last few seasons and this season is no different as he sports a 2.57 road ERA. While it's not the greatest stat to quote, he does have a 21-5 road record against an 11-14 home record over the last three seasons. Nick Pivetta will toe the rubber for Boston. He has a great strikeout rate (10.93 K/9) but he's also had trouble with home runs, allowing 15 in only 84 innings (1.61 HR/9).
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Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox Best Bet
Bobby Witt Jr. Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBI -135 (FanDuel)
With the Royals being a -175 favorite in a game with an 8.5 over/under, it's being suggested they score around five runs tonight against Chris Flexen, who has been terrible lately. Flexen has allowed 10 earned runs in his two starts (9.1 innings) since the All-Star break, allowing two home runs along with a 7:7 K:BB ratio. Bobby Witt Jr. has been the best offensive player for the Royals this season and has a small but successful sample size against Flexen. Witt has gone 5-for-8 against Flexen with a home run, a walk and two RBI. He also enters tonight with a hit in 19 out of his 20 games and six home runs in July. In case you were wondering, his best anytime home run odds are +285, which you can find on DraftKings.
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Total Runs Over 7 +113 (BetRivers)
- Seattle Mariners Moneyline +110 (DraftKings)
- Bobby Witt Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBI -135 (FanDuel)
