This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets Today: Expert MLB Picks and Props for Wednesday, Aug. 30
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We've got a full-day slate Wednesday and I'm focusing on one matchup in each league that features a particularly tantalizing matchup for the visiting squads.
New York Yankees at Detroit Tigers Best Bets
The Yankees' season has been nothing short of a colossal disappointment given preseason expectations, but Gerrit Cole has continued to live up to his end of the bargain through the malaise. The right-hander and current AL CY Young odds-on favorite enters Wednesday's start with an 11-4 record, 2.95 ERA and 1.04 WHIP across 27 starts.
Cole has actually been at his best on the road, where he sports a 2.48 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 0.6 HR/9. He's also facing a group of hitters he's enjoyed plenty of success against in the past, as Cole has held current Detroit bats to a collective .148/.193/.222 slash line across 57 career plate appearances while striking out 21 times against him in that span.
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In contrast, projected Tigers starter Joey Wentz, who's expected to pitch as either a conventional starter or a bulk pitcher behind an opener. The southpaw carries a 2-10 record, 6.62 ERA and 1.65 WHIP overall, and he's had his most trouble at home with an 0-4 mark, 7.44 ERA, 1.72 WHIP and 1.9 HR/9 across 42.1 innings.
He also has an unenviable matchup against the Bronx Bombers, who, despite their overall struggles, have a .318 average, .967 OPS, .408 wOBA and 166 wRC+ versus lefties in August. The combination of Cole, the Yankees' success and Wentz's struggles make New York a good bet to be ahead after five innings, and Detroit's 26.5 percent strikeout rate versus righties in August makes a same-game parlay that banks on a Yanks win and Cole ringing up at least eight Ks a prudent one.
MLB Best Bets for Yankees at Tigers:
- Yankees -0.5- 1st 5 Innings (-160 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- SGP: Yankees moneyline and Gerrit Cole Over 7.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+171 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
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Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies Best Bets
The Braves have unsurprisingly scored at least eight runs in five of their first six games against the Rockies this season, including three double-digit tallies. Atlanta is 6-0 overall in the season series and boasts an average margin of victory of 6.7 runs.
The combination of the Braves' highly potent lineup and Coors Field is always a recipe for a standout offensive night for Atlanta, and I'm projecting as much Wednesday versus left-hander Kyle Freeland. The veteran southpaw has actually been slightly better at home than on the road, but he still carries a bloated 1.49 WHIP at Coors and has been lit up by current Atlanta bats for a collective .348 average and 1.010 OPS in 95 career encounters.
One of his biggest tormentors has been Ozzie Albies, who sports a .429 average with three doubles, a triple and only one career strikeout against Freeland in 21 career plate appearances. Albies has been absolutely elite against left-handed pitching as well, posting a .384 average and 1.028 OPS in 102 plate appearances in that split this season.
Atlanta has been the best 1st 5 innings team to bet in the NL and is averaging an MLB-high 3.46 runs per first 5 innings per road game, while Colorado is surrendering an MLB-high 3.68 runs per 5 innings per home game. All these metrics, including those pertaining to Albies, lead me to the two bets below.
MLB Best Bets for Braves at Rockies:
- Braves -1.5 - 1st 5 Innings (+105 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 Total Hits (-105 on PointsBet Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
MLB Best Bets Recap:
- Yankees -0.5- 1st 5 Innings (-160 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- SGP: Yankees moneyline and Gerrit Cole Over 7.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+171 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Braves -1.5 - 1st 5 Innings (+105 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Ozzie Albies Over 1.5 Total Hits (-105 on PointsBet Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck