MLB Picks: Division Series Best Bets

This article is part of our MLB Picks series.

MLB Playoffs: MLB Division Series Best Bets

The MLB playoffs just started three days ago, but a third of the teams have already been eliminated. The Wild Card round passed more quickly than expected, with a quartet of sweeps leaving us with a two-day gap in the baseball schedule, but we're now down to the final eight.

Joining the winners of the four wild-card matchups are four teams with first-round byes: the Astros, Dodgers and Braves, who all feel like they're here every year, and the Orioles, who haven't reached this stage of the postseason since 2014. I'll offer my thoughts on all four Division Series matchups below.

The MLB Postseason is ramping up at BetMGM and the BetMGM bonus code gets new customers a $200 bonus offer. Baseball fans in Kentucky can now legally bet on sports as well, and the BetMGM Kentucky bonus code has a similarly generous welcome offer.

MLB Division Series Odds

• Rangers -105 at Orioles -115 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
• Twins +135 at Astros -160 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
• Phillies +145 at Braves -170 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
• Diamondbacks +175 at Dodgers -205 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

Be sure to dig into the best sportsbook promo codes to get the most bang for your buck this postseason.

Texas Rangers (90-72) at Baltimore Orioles (101-61)

Key Stats

Projected Starters

Unconfirmed pitchers in italics

RHP Dane Dunning (3.70 ERA, 4.52 SIERA) vs. RHP Kyle Bradish (2.83 ERA, 3.76 SIERA)

LHP Jordan Montgomery (3.20 ERA, 4.23 SIERA) vs. RHP Dean Kremer (4.12 ERA, 4.44 SIERA)

RHP Nathan Eovaldi (3.63 ERA, 4.18 SIERA) vs. LHP John Means (2.66 ERA, 6.00 SIERA in four starts)

LHP Andrew Heaney (4.15 ERA, 4.40 SIERA) vs. RHP Grayson Rodriguez (4.35 ERA, 4.01 SIERA)

LHP Jordan Montgomery (3.20 ERA, 4.23 SIERA) vs. RHP Kyle Bradish (2.83 ERA, 3.76 SIERA)

Series Preview

The Rangers' ranks on the table above are misleading, as the rotation is without Jacob deGrom (elbow), Max Scherzer (shoulder) and Jon Gray (forearm). What's left is either a group of pretty good pitchers who are better than their peripherals suggest, or a very mediocre set of starters, depending on your preference for ERA vs. SIERA. The two best options, Montgomery and Eovaldi, combined for 13.2 innings of one-run ball against the Rays, with the bullpen following with 4.1 shutout innings. The relief corps may be leaned on more in this series, particularly in Games 1 and 4, if the ERA estimators are to be believed. The unit performed better over the last two months but only jumped to 17th in ERA- over that span — not exactly playoff-caliber. The Rangers may have to hit their way to a series victory, which their lineup is certainly capable of doing. Don't expect much action on the basepaths, as they rank 27th in steals, but they regularly get runners on base, ranking third in on-base percentage, and they can drive runners in from anywhere, tying for third in homers.

The Orioles spent the last few seasons assembling an enviable group of prospects, the sort you wouldn't be surprised to see crack the 100-win barrier one day, though they weren't expected to put it all together this quickly. While second-order stats such as their run differential (+129) and pythagorean record (94-68) put them as more of an average playoff team than the best team in the American League, as their record would have it, there's no doubt that they deserve to be here. The Baltimore lineup gives manager Brandon Hyde plenty of options, as 10 Orioles hitters finished with a wRC+ of 97 or above in at least 200 plate appearances, though none of the team's exciting young bats has quite reached the elite tier yet. Adley Rutschman's 127 wRC+ is a phenomenal mark for a second-year catcher, but most playoff teams will have someone a bit more intimidating as their toughest hitter. On the pitching side, there's a case to be made that their rotation is much better than its middling season-long ranking indicates. The unit jumped all the way up to fifth in ERA- in the second half, with Bradish (2.34 ERA) and Rodriguez (2.58) particularly dominant since the break. The bullpen, however, likely isn't as good as its rankings indicated due to the loss of Felix Bautista (elbow), though Yennier Cano (2.11 ERA) leads a group that still has plenty of talent remaining.

Orioles vs. Rangers Series Pick

•  Orioles, -110 (PointsBet)

This is easily the tightest of the four series, so taking the slightly better payout on the Rangers is justifiable. The season-long stats hint in that direction as well, but given the blows to the Rangers' rotation and the second-half form of several Orioles starters, I'd give Baltimore a pretty substantial advantage on the pitching side once the bullpens are considered. Texas' fearsome lineup more or less equalizes that advantage, but if Hyde manages his deep, young group correctly, we could see players like Rutschman, Bradish, Rodriguez and Gunnar Henderson break out as stars on the national stage. It's a lot to ask of a manager in his first-ever postseason series, and a lot to ask of a group full of first- and second-year players, but it's equally tough to envision a Rangers rotation whose SIERAs all begin with 4 making much of a run.

The PointsBet Maryland promo code gets baseball fans up to $1,000 in second chance bets.

Minnesota Twins (87-75) at Houston Astros (90-72)

Key Stats

Projected Starters

Unconfirmed pitchers in italics

RHP Joe Ryan (4.51 ERA, 3.44 SIERA) vs. RHP Justin Verlander (3.22 ERA, 4.43 SIERA)

RHP Pablo Lopez (3.66 ERA, 3.37 SIERA) vs. LHP Framber Valdez (3.45 ERA, 3.70 SIERA)

RHP Sonny Gray (2.79 ERA, 3.95 SIERA) vs. RHP Cristian Javier (4.56 ERA , 4.76 SIERA)

RHP Kenta Maeda (4.23 ERA , 3.76 SIERA) vs. RHP Hunter Brown (5.09 ERA, 3.74 SIERA)

RHP Joe Ryan (4.51 ERA, 3.44 SIERA) vs. RHP Justin Verlander (3.22 ERA, 4.43 SIERA)

Series Preview

The Astros may be the second seed, but there's always a sense the American League runs through Houston. They've reached the ALCS in six consecutive seasons, winning the pennant four times. The squad looking to make it seven in a row looks much like the team we've seen in previous seasons, but the key stats table above highlights a particular weakness in the rotation. Maybe we can buy into the 40-year-old Verlander continuing to match his ERA rather than his peripherals due to his inherent Justin Verlanderness, and Valdez had an excellent season, but it gets dicey after that, especially considering Brown's 6.57 ERA since the All-Star break. A balanced and deep lineup may be able to outhit that weakness, and a bullpen for which closer Ryan Pressly's 3.58 ERA represents merely the fourth-best mark among pitchers with at least 65 appearances should be able to hold leads. But there's no denying the Astros look a bit more mortal than they have in the past.

This Twins team probably feel like they can beat anybody, as they've already faced perhaps the most pressure they'll face all postseason by ending the franchise's 18-game playoff losing streak. Despite their modest win total, which was achieved while playing in the weakest division in baseball, they're a pretty good team. As the table above indicates, their lineup and rotation are both quite good, though it does hurt that the excellent pair of Lopez and Gray — who combined to allow one run in 10.2 innings against the Blue Jays — are unlikely to start more than one game apiece this series. Much may rest on the shoulders of Ryan, who struggled to a 6.09 second-half ERA and is now matched up against a future Hall of Famer. The Twins also have a questionable bullpen compared to most remaining playoff teams, though Jhoan Duran (2.45 ERA) is an elite weapon who has experience throwing multiple innings, recording at least five outs on eight occasions this year.

Twins vs. Astros Series Pick

•  Twins, +135 (DraftKings)

I wrote up the Astros as one of my three World Series picks prior to the start of the postseason, and I'd still take them in this series if the odds were even. Given the vulnerabilities in their rotation and Minnesota's strengths in that area, though, the odds look friendly enough to give the underdogs a go. A key factor in this series is that the Astros don't have the left-handed weapons to take advantage of the fact that Minnesota is much worse against southpaws. That will benefit Framber Valdez, but the Astros are unlikely to carry a left-handed reliever, eliminating their ability to force manager Rocco Baldelli to turn to his less-talented, short-side platoon options late in games.

Caesars is now live in Kentucky and those in the Bluegrass State can get in on the action this postseason with the Caesars Sportsbook Kentucky promo code.

Philadelphia Phillies (90-72) at Atlanta Braves (104-58)

Key Stats

Projected Starters

Unconfirmed pitchers in italics

LHP Ranger Suarez (4.18 ERA, 4.38 SIERA) vs. RHP Spencer Strider (3.86 ERA, 2.86 SIERA)

RHP Zack Wheeler (3.61 ERA, 3.53 SIERA) vs. LHP Max Fried (2.55 ERA, 3.38 SIERA)

RHP Aaron Nola (4.46 ERA, 3.75 SIERA) vs. RHP Bryce Elder (3.81 ERA, 4.81 SIERA) 

LHP Ranger Suarez (4.18 ERA, 4.38 SIERA) vs. RHP Spencer Strider (3.86 ERA, 2.86 SIERA)

RHP Zack Wheeler (3.61 ERA, 3.53 SIERA) vs. LHP Max Fried (2.55 ERA, 3.38 SIERA)

Series Preview

This Atlanta lineup is scary. The "1s" across the board in their rankings above do it justice. A 125 wRC+ is an absurd thing for a team to record over the course of an entire season for an entire lineup. So absurd, in fact, it's tied with the 1927 Yankees and stands alone as the highest mark since integration, narrowly edging out the 2019 Astros for that honor. Atlanta hitters, on average, performed as well as Alex Bregman or Bo Bichette this season. Ronald Acuna Jr. led the way, hitting .337/.416/.596 and winning plenty of fantasy leagues with his 41 homers and 73 steals. Atlanta also tied the all-time record by hitting 307 homers, with Matt Olson hitting 54 while Marcell Ozuna, Austin Riley and Sean Murphy all hit at least 33, giving the team five members of this season's Top 20. That all-timer of a lineup helped Atlanta to the best record in the league this season despite a rather ordinary rotation, though that group's overall marks are dragged down but the succession of failed fifth-starter candidates, who won't get near the mound in the postseason. A strong bullpen should be able to cover for Elder in Game 3 if he pitches more to his peripherals than his ERA. 

The Phillies won't be scared by facing this particular opponent at this particular stage, however, having dispatched with Atlanta in last year's NLDS on the way to picking up the pennant. Noah Syndergaard started the fourth and final game of that series for the Phillies, who have better options in that spot this year behind the same trio of Wheeler, Nola and Suarez. Wheeler and Nola were both dominant against Miami, and with Nola now riding a streak of three straight scoreless outings, the team will feel confident whenever either of them is on the mound. A deep bullpen, anchored by the lefty-righty pairing of Jose Alvarado (1.74 ERA, 10 saves) and ex-Brave Craig Kimbrel (3.26 ERA, 27 saves) should give them a fighting chance in the others. On the offensive side, no lineup will look good next to Atlanta's, but Philadelphia has plenty of power themselves. They ranked eighth in homers for the season, with six players hitting at least 20. Some may think around power doesn't work in the playoffs, but it worked last year for the Phillies, with the team hitting 24 homers in 17 games.

Phillies vs. Braves Series Pick

• Phillies, +164 (FanDuel)

This pick is about the brevity of a five-game playoff series as much as anything. Atlanta is undoubtedly the better of these two teams, but that was the case last year as well, when the Phillies outscored them 24-13 across four games, including 17-4 across two games in Philadelphia. It does hurt the Phillies that the unusual off day which follows Game 2 allows Atlanta to potentially start Strider and Fried for four of the five games, while the underdogs won't be able to arrange their rotation quite as optimally given that they've had to play two playoff games already. But the Phillies' bullpen depth helps offset that problem, and while it may seem insane to bet against one of the best lineups ever assembled, the odds overstate how much that advantage is likely to show itself over such a short series.

Baseball fans located in Kentucky can get in on the action at bet365 this postseason with the bet365 promo code, which nets new customers a $365 sign-up bonus

Arizona Diamondbacks (84-78) at Los Angeles Dodgers (100-62)

Key Stats

Projected Starters

Unconfirmed pitchers in italics

RHP Merrill Kelly (3.29 ERA, 4.12 SIERA) vs. LHP Clayton Kershaw (2.46 ERA, 3.82 SIERA)

RHP Zac Gallen (3.47 ERA, 3.67 SIERA) vs. RHP Bobby Miller (3.76 ERA, 3.93 SIERA)

RHP Brandon Pfaadt (5.72 ERA, 4.28 SIERA) vs. RHP Lance Lynn (5.73 ERA, 5.23 SIERA)

RHP Merrill Kelly (3.29 ERA, 4.12 SIERA) vs. LHP Clayton Kershaw (2.46 ERA, 3.82 SIERA)

RHP Zac Gallen (3.47 ERA, 3.67 SIERA) vs. RHP Bobby Miller (3.76 ERA, 3.93 SIERA)

Series Preview

The NL West corner of the bracket features a Dodgers team that's been the class of the senior circuit over the last decade against a Diamondbacks squad that just won its first playoff game since 2011. Much like the Baltimore above, Arizona arguably arrived a year early, and they'll have to count on their young roster outperforming an uninspiring set of season-long rankings. The Diamondbacks' bullpen can at least claim to be better than its overall numbers indicate, as the unit jumps up to eighth in ERA- (87) since August 1, with Paul Sewald (3.12 ERA, 34 saves) a key addition at the deadline. Arizona's rotation also looks a lot better when you eliminate their fourth and fifth starters, as they'll be able to do in this series. They may even have the stronger set of starters in this particular series, given what's left of the Dodgers rotation. Their lineup, however, trails the rest of the remaining playoff field by a considerable margin. There are talented bats here, most notably Corbin Carroll (133 wRC+, 25 homers, 54 steals), but the Diamondbacks may have to run wild on the basepaths to have a chance. They ranked second in stolen bases and will need that added pressure to make up for a middling set of bats.

Much of what was written about the Astros above can be repurposed for the Dodgers. A perennial juggernaut, the Dodgers again enjoy one of the league's best lineups and best bullpens, but the starting rotation is much worse than we've come to expect. That won't matter as much as it could have in this series, as the extra off day between Games 1 and 2 means they'll never need a fourth starter, but Lynn's expected start in Game 3 is likely to be an adventure. Kershaw is Kershaw, but he has a long-established track record of pitching worse in the postseason (4.22 ERA in 194 career innings) and is now 35 years old. The Dodgers have had some truly elite performances from their bullpen options, with four different pitchers managing an ERA of 2.05 or better in at least 35 appearances, but the team would feel more like their typically dominant selves if any of Walker Buehler (elbow), Julio Urias (administrative leave), Tony Gonsolin (elbow) or Dustin May (elbow) were available. Their path to a playoff run may rely on the the lineup consistently outhitting the opposition, but you could do a lot worse than a group led by Mookie Betts (167 wRC+) and Freddie Freeman (163 wRC+) if that was your gameplan.

Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks Series Pick

•  Diamondbacks, +184 (FanDuel)

Yet again, we have a series with a clear favorite, and yet again, the price on the favorites is just too steep for a five-game series. The Diamondbacks are worse the Dodgers, but it's just not very hard for the worse team to go 3-2 across five games, and the odds are appealing enough that it's worth taking a chance. Kershaw hasn't made it beyond five innings since returning from a shoulder injury in early August, while Miller is already 25 innings beyond his previous career high. Those two look gettable in Games 1 and 2, while Game 3 looks like a wide-open bullpen contest. If the Dodgers had even one more of their unavailable starters ready to go, it might tilt the scales their way, but with two relatively unreliable rotations set to square off, the odds should be closer to even than they currently are.