This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Hello everyone and welcome to my last MLB article of the regular season! When we last talked, I had a very nice 3-0 day on Sept. 14 that pushed my record to 28-35 on the year. However, because I'm largely a plus money/underdog player in MLB, we are up 1.36 units so far, and that's all that matters! Wednesday's slate features some enormous games along with a few clunkers. Today's Game Focus will center around one of the bigger contests of the schedule that will take place along the shore of Lake Erie.
Cincinnati Reds at 
Cleveland Guardians
This game features a little of everything. The Reds are in the thick of the NL Wild Card race and need every win they can get down the stretch. Shane Bieber makes his second start for Cleveland after a long stint on the DL to work out the kinks and prepare for the offseason. And the beloved Terry Francona will say one final goodbye to the Cleveland faithful before he embarks on retirement (if you haven't already, I HIGHLY recommend reading Tim Kurkjian's ode to Tito on ESPN.com). The night will be emotional, but for our purposes, we need to take emotion out of play. The Guardians are not a good team, Bieber is not in vintage form, and the Reds need the win. Now, not every team that needs to win does win; that is proven time and again. However, Cincy starter Andrew Abbott has been steady all year and should keep the Reds in the game. At +112, the Reds are the better team with more to play for and a reason to focus. Their value stands out for me today.
MLB Best Bet: Reds ML (+112) @ FanDuel
The Guardians really struggle to score, averaging just 4.1 runs a game, 27th in the league and are 28th in slugging, 27th in OPS and 30th in home runs. Neither lineup has much experience against the opposing pitcher and while I don't expect either starter to go deep, both bullpens are competent. And while I don't have any data to prove this, I always feel the pitchers have the advantage in highly emotional games because they are used to blocking out the noise while batters try to do too much to put on a show. Even if not true, it sounds good, and there's value on the under here, so I'm going with it.
MLB Best Bet: Reds/Guardians UNDER 8 (+115) @ BetMGM
Cincy's Andrew Abbott has proven to be a capable strikeout pitcher who is averaging over one strikeout per inning. He doesn't go deep into games, but he's eclipsed the 5.5 mark three times in his last eight starts and sat on five in four of the other games. Carrying out the "Cleveland batters trying to do too much for Tito" theory, I see Abbott having an excellent chance to go over his K prop tonight.
MLB Best Bet: Andrew Abbott OVER 5.5 Ks (+115) @ DraftKings
Wednesday MLB Game Focus:
Here's a recap of my best bets on Reds @ Guardians for Wednesday, Sept. 27:
- Reds ML (+112) @ FanDuel
- Reds/Guardians UNDER 8 (+115) @ BetMGM
- Andrew Abbott OVER 5.5 Ks (+115) @ DraftKings
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the MLB odds page on RotoWire.
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