MLB FAAB Factor: Cacti and Grapefruits

This FAAB article is in addition to the AL and NL FAAB articles that run Sunday. Bids are based on a $100 FAAB budget. Throughout the season, this column will have two goals:

1. Identify FAAB targets for fantasy managers in leagues with Thursday FAAB.

2. Offer a preview of FAAB targets ahead of Sunday's columns.

I've always had mixed feelings about spring training. On one hand, it helps cure me from my baseball withdrawal about a month before the regular season actually begins, and it's always fun to get a look at the game's top prospects donning their big-league team's colors before their official debut. On the other hand, the scores of the games don't matter, and records aren't very indicative of how a team will perform from March to October. A variety of things can also skew individual players' statistics: small sample sizes, pitchers experimenting with a new pitch, batters making a new change to their stance and established MLB players getting a chance to pad their stats against someone who's just hoping to make Double-A out of camp. All of these factors combined can make it hard to trust the results we see from spring training and set our expectations accordingly.

So let's make some predictions based on spring performances, shall we?

The number in parentheses represents the player's rostership rate in Yahoo leagues.

Starting Pitcher

Gavin Williams, Cleveland Guardians (41%)

I know I just went on a brief rant about how spring training stats shouldn't be blindly trusted, but a pitcher striking out 16 batters in eight innings is almost always worth paying attention to. Williams' 4.86 ERA and 1.37 WHIP over 16 regular-season starts from a season ago may be a little offputting for some fantasy managers, but a 3.66 FIP indicates that he performed much better than what his base stats might suggest. Now that he's seemingly beginning to put things together in the Cactus League, the 25-year-old righty may be a candidate for a breakout season. That being said, I wouldn't bank on him maintaining a 16.0 K/9. FAAB: $8

Ryan Weathers, Miami Marlins (10%)

The harder a pitcher can throw, the harder he usually is to hit. Makes sense, right? So when Weathers shows up at camp averaging 98 mph with his fastball after sitting around 95.6 mph last season, it's not outrageous to hear that he's surrendered just one earned run and two hits while striking out 10 batters across 7.1 frames in the Grapefruit League. He's also walked six batters thus far, so his control is still somewhat of an issue, but his newfound velocity could allow him to fly up the fantasy rankings if he's able to maintain it for a full season. Just make sure you have other pieces on your team capable of making up for what will likely be a low win total. FAAB: $6

Dustin May, Los Angeles Dodgers (24%)

The Dodgers are bursting at the seams with pitching talent, so whoever emerged victorious between May and Tony Gonsolin in the race for the final spot in Los Angeles' rotation was sure to be worthy of fantasy attention. The latter was forced to drop out of the race after suffering a back injury while lifting weights, giving the job to May, who missed all of last season working his way back from elbow surgery before tearing his esophagus in July. The right-hander won't make the trip to Japan for next week's Tokyo Series, but he — like most other Dodgers starters — should be a good source for wins once the team's stateside schedule begins. FAAB: $5

Will Warren, New York Yankees (7%)

Warren was a name opposing offenses loved to see on the lineup card in 2024. He made six appearances (five starts) in the majors last season, finishing with a 10.32 ERA across 22.2 innings. However, the only thing from his disastrous debut season that's followed him into the spring is his ability to rack up strikeouts, as he's only given up three runs (two earned) while striking out 12 batters over 11.2 frames. With Gerrit Cole out for the year due to Tommy John surgery and Luis Gil also out indefinitely with a lat issue, Warren's turnaround has him in a good position to open the year in New York's rotation. FAAB: $1

Relief Pitcher

Aroldis Chapman, Boston Red Sox (38%)

Chapman is currently in a competition with Liam Hendriks for the closer job in Boston. With a 3.86 ERA and eight strikeouts in 4.2 innings, the left-handed Chapman has notably outperformed his right-handed counterpart, who has yielded six runs on 11 hits in just four frames. The race is still far from over, but I'm going to put my money on the guy who has made more than just five appearances since 2023. Even if Chapman ends up losing the battle, he'll still likely remain in a high-leverage role, giving him value in fantasy formats that give credit for holds. FAAB: $2

Tyler Holton, Detroit Tigers (23%)

A quick look at the back of Holton's baseball card will tell you that he's one of the most reliable relievers in baseball. Since joining the Tigers in 2023, he owns a 2.15 ERA and 0.82 WHIP over 179.2 innings, and he's off to a similar start this spring. The problem is that he's too much of a Swiss Army knife. He can open a game or close a game, and he also has the stamina necessary to give the Tigers multiple innings out of the bullpen — not to mention his six-pitch repertoire. Presumed closer Jason Foley is off to a slow start in camp, allowing five earned runs in 4.1 frames, so the Tigers may favor Holton's reliability over Foley's strikeout stuff in the ninth inning to begin the season. FAAB: $1

Catcher

Gabriel Moreno, Arizona Diamondbacks (28%)

A career .280 hitter, Moreno has quickly established himself as a solid offensive threat three seasons into his MLB tenure — especially by catchers' standards. He's also flashed a bit of power by hitting two home runs in the Cactus League, which falls just three shy of his 2024 regular-season total in 285 fewer at-bats. His elite plate discipline typically translates into a high on-base percentage, which may boost his potential to score runs for an Arizona offense that crossed the plate more than any other club in '24. FAAB: $3

First Baseman

Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Cincinnati Reds (38%)

A fractured wrist put an abrupt end to Encarnacion-Strand's season last year, and he only managed to bat .190 over 29 games before getting hurt. Now healthy, the 25-year-old is back to showing off the power that made him such a highly-touted prospect just a couple of years ago, though his seven strikeouts in 27 at-bats is still somewhat concerning. He has the inside track to open the season as Cincinnati's first baseman with Spencer Steer possibly headed to the IL with a shoulder injury. FAAB: $3

Second Baseman

Christian Moore, Los Angeles Angels (4%)

The Angels aren't shy when it comes to promoting their top prospects. Just ask Nolan Schanuel, who made his MLB debut a month after being drafted in the first round by the Halos in 2023. Moore, the Angels' 2024 first-round selection, could be next in line to experience the team's aggressive promotion tactics if Luis Rengifo's hamstring injury leaves him unavailable for Opening Day. Even if Moore doesn't break camp with the big-league squad, keep an eye on him. He slashed .322/.378/.533 with five home runs and 14 RBI over 98 Double-A plate appearances last season, and Los Angeles could be hurting for another infielder down the line with the oft-injured Yoan Moncada now covering third base. FAAB: $1

Third Baseman

Matt Shaw, Chicago Cubs (41%)

Shaw has been remarkably consistent at the plate since beginning his professional career in 2023. He owns at least an .840 OPS at every minor-league level he's played in and achieved a 20/30 season between Double-A and Triple-A in 2024 — a feat accomplished by just 10 major-leaguers last year. The 23-year-old will make the trip to Tokyo to face the Dodgers next week and is likely to open the season as Chicago's primary third baseman. FAAB: $9

Caleb Durbin, Milwaukee Brewers (12%)

The 25-year-old infielder is the lesser-known half of the return Milwaukee received in the trade that sent Devin Williams to the Bronx, but Durbin is still in a position to make an immediate impact for his new team. A contact hitter with blazing speed — he set a single-season record in the Arizona Fall League with 29 steals — and a knack for getting on base, he'll feel right at home in the Brewers' offense. It remains to be seen where he'll end up on defense, though he has the versatility necessary to play anywhere in the infield. FAAB: $2

Cam Smith, Houston Astros (13%)

With Christian Walker dealing with an oblique issue, there have been whispers of Smith potentially cracking the Astros' Opening Day roster to cover third base while Isaac Paredes moves to first. Smith, 22, has certainly helped his case by going 9-for-20 with two home runs and seven RBI through nine Grapefruit League games, and a recent experiment to get him playing time in right field only helps his versatility. His spot on the Opening Day roster is far from guaranteed, but don't be surprised if you see him reach the majors relatively soon. FAAB: $1

Shortstop

Trevor Story, Boston Red Sox (28%)

Story is typically regarded as an injury risk, and you'd be wise to think of him that way, as he hasn't played 100 games in a season since joining the Red Sox in 2022 and has fallen short of the 50-game mark in each of the past two years. However, it's hard to ignore the spring he's having: 11-for-24 with a pair of homers, six RBI and seven runs scored in eight contests. He has minimal competition for regular reps at shortstop, so it could be well worth investing in a hot bat right out of the gate for cheap. FAAB: $1

Outfielder

Matt Wallner, Minnesota Twins (29%)

Admittedly, highlighting Wallner early in the season feels strange after witnessing the putrid start he had last season that landed him in Triple-A for nearly three months. However, he was able to turn things around and finish the MLB season with an OPS north of .875 for a second consecutive season. His numbers are down a bit this spring, but the Twins have been using him in the leadoff spot regularly after only doing so one time in 2024. Assuming that trend carries into the regular season along with his career .366 OBP, hitting in front of Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton could offer a significant boost to his run total. FAAB: $3

Michael Conforto, Los Angeles Dodgers (13%)

Compared to some of the other players that joined forces with the Dodgers this offseason, it felt like Conforto's signing flew somewhat under the radar. The 32-year-old outfielder slashed .238/.322/.418 across his two seasons in San Francisco. However, success is contagious in Los Angeles, and Conforto is already showing symptoms with a .905 OPS through 30 plate appearances this spring. Even if limited to a platoon role, he's likely to start most days being a left-handed hitter, and most of his counting stats are candidates to increase in 2025 with a myriad of offensive firepower surrounding him in the lineup. FAAB: $1