This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
A 10-game slate comes our way Tuesday evening and runs don't look like they'll be difficult to come by, as six games feature a total of at least nine while only two are flirting with a o/u of 7.5. One of those expected lower-scoring contests is unsurprisingly the product of a duel between the slate's top two pitchers in Shohei Ohtani and Framber Valdez. There could be some other inviting matchups where we aren't forced to pay up for those aces, however.
Pitching
Logan Webb, SF vs. WAS ($10,500): Webb is likely going to be a popular choice Tuesday given the team he's facing. He does have some personal merits, turning in quality starts in three straight outings and four of five, and Webb has a moderate 3.80 ERA and 4.06 FIP while fanning 9.6 per nine. The slight concern is the Nationals however. Despite their void of talent, they are scrappy. While their below-average .288 wOBA and 77 wRC+ scream "target", they fan just 19.5 percent of the time, limiting Webb's ceiling. For just $300 more, I may prefer to pay up for Valdez under the assumption of lower usage.
Lucas Giolito, CWS at KC ($9,300): This looks like another pretty chalky option. Giolito has fanned 32 across his last five outings spanning 32.2 innings, with four resulting in a quality start. The Royals counter with an attractive 24.6 percent K rate and woeful .289 wOBA and 78 wRC+. Giolito has shown he can be combustible, and he has struggled on the road this season, so he comes with some risk that make him more of a GPP option for me than a cash option, but the matchup suggests he'll shine.
Brandon Pfaadt, ARI vs. FLA ($5,800): There are a handful of serviceable spots in the mid-tier, but if paying down is your strategy, I'm going all the way down to Pfaadt, the cheapest option on this slate. He was hit hard in his debut, but that was against a more competent Texas offense. That feels like it's deflated both his salary, and interest in rostering him. However, Miami has a 24.4 percent strikeout rate and a second-worst .284 wOBA against righties to go with a 78 wRC+. Pfaadt averaged over 10 strikeouts per nine at all but one of his minor-league stops. He's got rare upside at this price point, and if he clicks, that bargain salary has the potential to be slate-breaking.
Top Targets
As with the pitching above, there appear to be some pretty obvious offenses we want to be involved with Tuesday. The Yankees likely lead that way against Drew Rucinski, who has a 7.71 ERA and 7.20 FIP, and with only one bat priced over $3,100, stacks are going to be popular. That's fine for cash lineups, but for GPP, I'll roll with Aaron Judge ($3,900) at his sub $4k price in his return from the IL. He has a team-best .420 wOBA, 171 wRC+ and .315 ISO off righties.
I struggle to make heads or tails out of Padres' starter Michael Wacha, whose allowed no runs in two starts, and 19 across his other four. It's enough to have some interest in fading him while not going full in on the Twins. Byron Buxton ($3,800) leads Minnesota with a .400 wOBA, 158 wRC+ and .309 ISO off righties, though he is in an 0-for-10 funk.
Bargain Bats
If you want a cheaper option from among the Yankees' bats, Anthony Rizzo ($3,100) makes plenty of sense. He's on a modest six-game hitting streak, and while it's a small sample size of just 19 batters, Rucinski is allowing a .679 wOBA and 1.684 OPS to lefties. If you trust that, Willie Calhoun ($2,500) becomes intriguing too.
Patrick Corbin has a 5.73 road ERA with a 6.62 FIP, allowing a .405 wOBA and .941 OPS to righties. That pairs nicely with Wilmer Flores ($2,800) and his .453 wOBA, 190 wRC+ and .349 ISO off lefties.
For additional GPP pop, Joey Gallo ($3,000) and his boom or bust nature seem to fit well against Wacha, who is allowing far more damage to lefties (.410 wOBA and .967 OPS.) Alex Kirilloff ($2,200) would also be in play.
I'm certainly not afraid to target Mariner bats against Andrew Heaney either, and there are multiple options priced favorably. Teoscar Hernandez ($3,000) has quitely hit safely in six straight games and seven of eight, and he has a team-best .446 wOBA, 193 wRC+ and .481 ISO off lefties. Eugenio Suarez ($2,800) hasn't shown much thump off southpaws to date, but he still boasts a .386 wOBA, 159 wRC+ and .245 ISO off them since the start of last season.
Stacks to Consider
White Sox vs. Jordan Lyles: Andrew Vaughn ($3,200), Tim Anderson ($3,100), Luis Robert ($3,000)
The White Sox still aren't winning much, but they've at least starting scoring over the last week, something I think continues in a big way Tuesday. Lyles comes in with a 6.69 ERA and 6.52 FIP, allowing a .399 wOBA and .949 OPS. I won't overthink this, and target the three righties atop the Sox order. Robert is cooking right now and is a clear standalone target if you're not backing this stack. He's on a seven-game hitting streak during which he has five extra-base hits including two homers, along with seven RBI, nine runs scored and five walks. Vaughn is a bit feast or famine, with six RBI in his last two games but none in his previous five, and his .349 wOBA against righties is just okay. Anderson meanwhile is rounding into form after missing time, hitting safely in three straight with six knocks in seven games since returning. The stats certainly don't back the White Sox, but they do suggest targeting Lyles. This trio is cheap, and could be overlooked due to the team's season-long struggles.
Cubs vs. Jack Flaherty: Cody Bellinger ($4,200), Ian Happ ($3,100), Matt Mervis ($2,300)
This game has a curiously low run total, currently sitting at 7.5 despite some mediocre arms on both sides. We are looking at some wind blowing in at Wrigley though, so hunting for power isn't the right move here. Flaherty is getting hit hard most nights, allowing 21 runs and 25 hits across his last 19.0 innings. Furthermore, lefties have a .462 wOBA and 1.084 OPS off him to date. As such, we'll target as many opposite-handed bats as possible. Happ is another favorite standalone option, as he's hit safely in four straight games and six of eight while carrying a .449 wOBA and 186 wRC+ off lefties. Bellinger is priced a tad too high for my liking, but he's hit safely in 13 of his last 15, creating a floor that's elevated by Flaherty's struggles. Due to his salary, I'll target Mervis to balance things out, albeit in a likely non-traditional batting order stack as the rookie will likely be hitting in the bottom third.
