This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
FanDuel has 10 games included on Tuesday's main slate, with our standard 7:05 p.m. EDT first-pitch. We've got double-digit run totals in two games, with Cubs-Astros joining Padres-Rockies in Coors Field as the expected high-scoring spots. Three games sit at the slate-low 7.5 runs, giving us ample obvious pitching targets. That's further bolstered by the fact we've got eight arms priced at $9,000. The top three in Grayson Rodriguez, Pablo Lopez and Logan Webb are all in very favorable spots, so we'll have to ask ourselves if we can find some savings on offense to consider using them, or if there's enough value elsewhere to save on pitching and build with stronger bats.
It looks like we could see rain in Chicago and St. Louis, but moreso early so delays look more likely than postponements. Wind could play a factor in Chicago as well, blowing out to right potentially aiding left-handed pull hitters. An open roof in Texas could also help get some wind boosts.
Pitching
Marcus Stroman, NYY vs. OAK ($9,700): This is probably better for cash lineup builds than GPPs, but Stroman looks to be in a strong spot for stability. We simply know we can target pitchers against Oakland, whose lineup has a .273 wOBA while fanning at a 27.8 percent clip off righties. Stroman isn't a big swing and miss guy with just 7.7 per nine, which limits the GPP upside. But he keeps the ball on the ground at a massive 60.7 percent mark, minimizing damage regularly. If he can limit walks, he'll have a good chance for a quality start.
Max Fried, ATL vs. MIA ($8,300): Fried's been pretty awful to date, but that's lowered the price to a very favorable number in what looks like a very favorable spot. Fried boasts a 7.71 ERA, but a more palatable 4.41 xFIP and a .375 BABIP suggests further bad luck. He's not striking many out either at a career-low 6.6 per nine rate. But he's turned in one quality start thus far, against these same Marlins, working 6.1 innings and allowing one run and striking out four. Miami isn't swinging and missing much against lefties at just 20.6 percent, but they have a woeful .248 wOBA, 54 wRC+ and .087 ISO. Current Marlins are 19-for-70 (.271) off Fried with just a .771 OPS. Fried and a similarly struggling Kevin Gausman ($8,400) are perfect GPP candidates at these reduced prices.
Tommy Henry, ARI at STL ($7,400): Let me be clear, I don't really recommend Henry here, as there are just so many viable options you don't need to go here. But if your strategy consistently sits around paying down for pitching, Henry has a shot. It's not him that's appealing but more the matchup. St. Louis has a meager 20.2 percent strikeout rate against lefties, but that's not really Henry's game so it's negated. The Cardinals don't hit southpaws well with a .277 wOBA, 77 wRC+ and .097 ISO. Henry's 6.87 ERA isn't backed by a 3.97 xFIP. There's a path to a 3x return at this price.
Top Targets
It's a small sample, but through 20 plate appearances, Cubs' starter Jordan Wicks is allowing a .406 wOBA to lefties. If we're buying the wind factor, there's plenty to like in Kyle Tucker ($3,900) and Yordan Alvarez ($3,800). Alvarez has a ,502 wOBA, 242 wRC+ and .314 ISO off lefties, while Tucker sits at .488/227/.343.
Rockies' starter Ryan Feltner is allowing a .393 wOBA to lefties, though the .889 OPS isn't huge. Still, Jake Cronenworth ($3,600) or Jurickson Profar ($3,400) give us top of the order shares in this favorable spot for a reasonable price. Profar has a .392 wOBA and 151 wRC+, while Cronenworth sits at .369/137.
Bargain Bats
Atlanta's big-name bats are scuffling, but with another lefty on the mound, we at least know Orlando Arcia ($3,000) will hit second amongst those bigger names. And Travis d'Arnaud ($3,000) is in the midst of a power surge, and is 6-for-13 (.462) with two homers and four doubles off Marlins' starter Trevor Rogers.
I'm not buying anything Paul Blackburn is selling. His BABIP is at a career low, so is his flyball percentage while he's getting grounders at a career-high rate. He's due regression. Current Yankees' are also 14-for-37 (.378) with a 1.113 OPS off him. Juan Soto is a touch too pricey and Aaron Judge is in poor form, but there are plenty of secondary options here. Anthony Rizzo ($2,700) and/or Anthony Volpe ($3,100) give us shares around those two bigger bats.
Keep an eye out to see if Heston Kjerstad is added to the player pool. He's expected to be promoted Tuesday, and would likely be a dirt cheap way to get a piece of the Orioles' attack. More on them below.
Stacks to Consider
Orioles vs. Griffin Canning (Angels): Gunnar Henderson ($3,800), Adley Rutschman ($3,200), Anthony Santander ($3,100)
This is going to be incredibly chalky, but FanDuel is almost gifting this stack with the reduced prices, as I was expected one or two Orioles' to land in the "Top Targets" section instead of being able to afford a stack. Canning has allowed 17 runs across his four starts and can't get lefties out, allowing a .468 wOBA and 1.096 OPS, and conveniently, Baltimore's lineup is chalked full of left-handed bats, so you can pick and choose as position needs and budget allows. Henderson is mashing righties to the tune of a .460 wOBA, 209 wRC+ and .286 ISO. Rutchman isn't; he's scuffling but his presence in the two-spot of the lineup could make him a bit more contrarian than some of Baltimore's other left-handed options. Santander rounds this out as a 1-2-4 likely lineup stack. Cedric Mullins ($3,100), Colton Cowser ($3,200) and Ryan O'Hearn ($2,700) are all viable options as well.
Diamondbacks vs. Steven Matz (Cardinals): Ketel Marte ($3,800), Lourdes Gurriel ($3,700), Eugenio Suarez ($3,000)
Matz hasn't been terrible, but we know he pitches to contact and righties have had more success on him to date, so we can load up on the Diamondbacks, who fair well off lefties. Marte has a .474 wOBA, 199 wRC+ and .323 ISO off southpaws, while Gurriel sits at .381/139/.222 and Suarez .410/158/.148. This trio is hitting a combined .294 off Matz, with Marte taking him deep. Matz is only averaging a homer on 4.8 percent of the flyballs he allows, which is unsustainable, and these three make enough contact to not need long balls to produce.
