This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
An eight-game main slate awaits at FanDuel Saturday, with a somewhat unconventional 7:05 p.m. EDT start as opposed to our more regular compact slate with afternoon first pitches. Half of the pitching options come in at a pay up price of $9,000 or greater, with half of those reaching five-figures, but low scoring and freely available pitching isn't the betting theme here, with five of these games having run lines of 8.5 or greater, of course led by Giants-Rockies in Coors Field at 10.5. Offense should be surprisingly available, and it will be easy to pivot for some low rostered options in the lower scoring games, too.
We could have some outbound winds in Los Angeles, potentially helping bats. We can always monitor swirling winds in Chicago. Rain looks likely in Denver and needs to be monitored closely before a lineup heavily built around the slate's anticipated highest-scoring affair.
Pitching
Brady Singer, KC vs. CWS ($9,000): This couldn't be more obvious. The Royals are the slate's biggest favorite to win at (-210), and the White Sox come with the slate's lowest expected total at 3.1 runs. He's faced the White Sox twice already this season, allowing three runs and five hits across 11.1 innings, though both were back in April. The current Chicago roster is hitting .270 off Singer with a .713 OPS. Singer's strikeouts aren't massive, which is going to cap his ceiling. He's a fine, likely heavily used, cash game option, but for GPPs I'd look at Framber Valdez ($9,500) or Zac Gallen ($8,800) in the same tier. And the names priced above him will also likely be lower rostered.
Max Scherzer, TEX vs. BAL ($8,600): This is almost more a need-based inclusion rather than one of great appeal. The pitching options really fall off after Scherzer due to matchup and/or talent concerns, so I believe this is the end of where we consider regardless of format. Baltimore is the league's fourth-best offense off righties, so there's a clear risk. And Scherzer isn't at a point where he's going to work bulk innings. He's at a career-low 7.6 K/9, so we're really backing him to limit damage and provide a floor more than a ceiling. He faced the Orioles in late June, allowing two runs in 5.1 innings, striking out four. That's been his worst outing fantasy wise to date.
Gavin Williams, CLE vs. SD ($7,000): What was said about Scherzer can be mirrored here with Williams. If you insist on a true paydown option, this is the default choice. I can't see anyone backing Justin Wrobleski against Boston, so this is what we get. Williams has allowed just one run over his last 10.1 innings but also hasn't worked more than 5.1 frames in three starts, so quality start upside isn't available. The Padres come with a .324 wOBA off righties, ranking seventh in the league, and only fan 18.1 percent of the time. We need 21 fantasy points from Williams to be competitive, and if he can limit damage over five frames, that's doable, but not much more can be expected.
Top Targets
I have zero faith in Brayan Bello in Los Angeles, and there's the added thought of wind here, too. Shohei Ohtani ($4,700) is worth the price, but difficult to fit in with a top pitcher. As such, Freddie Freeman ($3,800) is the preferred target. Bello is better on the road, but a stack with Will Smith ($3,600) and Teoscar Hernandez ($3,300) is manageable and in play.
Rockies' starter Kyle Freeland somehow has a 1.50 home ERA (4.18 xFIP). I don't enjoy the price point here, but it's not massive for guys in Coors Field. Heliot Ramos ($3,700) remains a near automatic target when facing a lefty, possessing a .548 wOBA, 265 wRC+ and .429 ISO. But Matt Chapman ($3,600) and Jorge Soler ($3,500) also present favorably off lefties. Take one as your build allows, monitor the rain and move to other games.
Don't shy away from Boston lefties against Justin Wrobleski, the Dodgers' left-handed starter. It's too small a sample, but he's allowing same-handed bats to post a .629 wOBA off him. Rafael Devers ($4,100) and Jarren Duran ($3,600) could go overlooked.
Bargain Bats
Division matchups can give us somewhat more reliable BvP trends, and there could be some minor value within the Mariners' lineup as a result. J.P. Crawford ($3,100) is 9-for-25 (.360) with a 1.007 OPS off Valdez, and Jorge Polanco ($2,700) is 8-for-20 (.400) with a 1.078 OPS.
Diamondbacks seem like an obvious stacking consideration against Kyle Hendricks, but the Cubs' starter comes with a 3.51 home xFIP against a 6.37 ERA. He's been more vulnerable to lefties, so perhaps Corbin Carroll ($3,100) is a reasonable play. There's massive BvP stats here, with current Diamondbacks' having 188 total at bats against Hendricks. Eugenio Suarez ($2,800) is 12-of-48 (.250) with a couple of homers and had seven hits and six RBI in his final five games before the break.
Stack to Consider
Guardians vs. Dylan Cease: Josh Naylor ($3,600), Steven Kwan ($3,500), Angel Martinez ($2,700)
This is how we get different. That doesn't mean we win, but it's an outside-the-box thought against a top-priced pitcher; the risks we have to take in GPPs. Cease has ample familiarity with the Guardians from his days in Chicago, and they are a combined 31-of-103 (.301) off him. Jose Ramirez hasn't figured him out, hitting just .208, so we take the three pieces around him and hope for the best. Kwan continues to hit and is 9-for-17 (.368) off Cease. Naylor is 6-for-20 (.300) with five RBI. Martinez hasn't faced him but likely slots into the two-hole in the lineup, making for a relatively traditional 1-2-4 stack around Ramirez. When Cease is on, he's elite, but he's shown multiple times this season he can be hit often and hard. Andres Gimenez ($2,900) is in play, too, if he's elevated in the lineup.
