This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
We've got eight games on the docket Saturday evening for FanDuel's main slate, with first pitch at 7:05 p.m. EDT. Only three arms are priced in a pay-up tier over $9,000, led by Chris Sale ($11,200), who should dominate the Angels and is a fine play where you can afford him. There's a pretty sharp decline following the $8,000 tier, and even some of those have questionable matchups, so your selection at pitching absolutely dictates your success Saturday. Coors Field again gives us our high run total at 10.5, while Guardians-Brewers is our low spot at 7.5 runs. Three additional games sit at 8.0.
We'll need to track potential rain in Baltimore, while there are minor outbound winds in Anaheim and Oakland.
Pitching
Hunter Brown, HOU vs. CWS ($9,900): The top three pitchers seem like an easy breakdown. Sale is expensive, Dylan Cease will be minimally rostered due to the ballpark, which leaves Brown almost by default in a statistically soft matchup with the White Sox. Brown has been under 29 fantasy points just once in 14 starts, nine times going for at least 43 points. Chicago has a pathetic 2.0 expected run total, 75 wRC+ and 24.0 percent strikeout rate off righties. He's going to be massively rostered, but for good reason.
Freddy Peralta, MIL vs. CLE ($8,600): Tanner Bibee has been very consistent but not elite, so I'll back Peralta's inconsistency with higher ceiling for my mid-tier play. It's largely a statistical backing, as the Brewers offense ranks 10th against righties, while the Guardians are 20th with a .300 wOBA and 94 wRC+. Peralta has only one quality start in his last four, but has gone at least five innings in six straight, so we know he'll get volume at a minimum. Current Guardians are 5-for-25 (.200) with a .539 OPS. Not a huge sample, but encouraging nonetheless. It's the slate's lowest run total, and Peralta saves a few bucks over his adversary.
Osvaldo Bido, OAK vs. SF ($7,400): Since moving into the starting rotation, Bido has earned 34 or more fantasy points three times in four starts, all of which came against statistically tougher matchups. The Giants put together quality at bats, entering Saturday with a less targetable 22.2 percent strikeout rate off righties. But they also are below average with a .300 wOBA and 95 wRC+. Bido does have a high fly ball rate (47.0 percent), but he's kept the ball in the park, allowing just two homers in 39.0 innings. The ballpark helps here, but outbound winds may not. We're looking for five-plus innings, a strikeout per, and three or fewer runs, all of which seems achievable against the Giants. This is as low as I'd consider, but if paying down is your requirement, Minnesota's David Festa ($6,800) would be my target.
Top Targets
Kyle Freeland versus the Padres is an interesting case. He's oddly enjoyed pitching at home, with a 3.06 ERA and 3.70 FIP against 8.23/5.20 on the road, but he's also struggled with this lineup overall, with San Diego going 52-for-167 (.321) with a .885 OPS. Stacking Padres is doable, as they aren't super inflated price-wise. Manny Machado ($3,700) is 15-for-47 (.319) off Freeland, seemingly making for a safe play.
Mookie Betts ($4,100) has two hits in each of his four starts since returning from IL, and Cardinals' starter Andre Pallante is allowing a .371 wOBA to righties at home. It wouldn't seem to get much safer, and with two homers, he's got upside as well.
Yordan Alvarez ($4,000) has only one hit in his last three games and hasn't homered in four straight after five in his previous five games. White Sox starter Chris Flexen has curious home/road splits off lefties, but is surrendering a .376 wOBA and .888 OPS to them overall, and Alvarez is 6-for-17 (.353) with three homers off of him.
Bargain Bats
Cheaper BvP entry points to the Padres include Ha-Seong Kim ($3,300) and Donovan Solano ($3,200). Kim is 7-for-18 (.389) with a 1.232 OPS off Freeland (four doubles, one homer) while Solano is 8-for-18 (.444) with a 1.278 OPS (two homers, one double).
While the Cardinals aren't trustworthy, it should be all-systems-go for them against Bobby Miller, who wasn't much better during his demotion to Triple-A than he's been in the majors. He's allowing a .602 wOBA and massive 1.488 OPS to lefties on the road, and .413/.956 to righties, and no Cardinal is priced above $3,200, so build elsewhere and snag shares here to finish your builds. Alec Burleson ($3,000) and Tommy Pham ($2,900) stand out, though a slumping Lars Nootbaar ($2,600) would be a dart throw power play.
Boston will be tough to stack given the numerous LvL matchups they'll offer, but there are some second tier righties with positive splits we can consider. Rob Refsnyder ($2,800) likely hits second and has a .411 wOBA and 164 wRC+ off southpaws. Both Connor Wong ($2,800) and Danny Jansen ($2,600) profile well, too depending on who starts.
Stack to Consider
Braves vs. Griffin Canning (Angels): Marcell Ozuna ($3,700), Matt Olson ($3,400), Michael Harris ($3,200)
Canning has alternated decent outings with blowups over his last five, and if that were to continue, he's due a strong showing here. And we know how volatile Atlanta's offense has been all season. Still, we're getting some solid price breaks here, allowing us to target the top of the order for a fair price. Canning has a 4.56 home ERA and 4.93 xFIP, though no clear struggles against either handed batter, so best not to overthink and take the best options for success. Ozuna hasn't homered in six games, but collected three hits last night, has hits in nine of his last 10 (15 total) and is 2-for-3 with a homer off Canning. Olson is 4-for-16 with two homers against the Angels' starter and has hit in seven of eight while also walking five times. Harris is the third piece by default as the likely leadoff hitter. He's hit safely in all three starts since being activated off IL. If you're not feeling this group and are a BvP guy, Ramon Laureano ($2,400) is 7-for-19 with three homes off Canning and has five hits in his last four.
