This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
Eight games are featured in Saturday evening's FanDuel main slate. I'm not sure I've seen a slate with this great of price disparity amongst the pitching. We have five arms priced at $10,300 or greater, and then not another arm priced above $8,000.
There are only two games with double-digit run totals, so perhaps we can find some value on the bump and not force paying up, but that big drop off from the top options very clearly suggests otherwise. Weather looks completely dry as of early Saturday morning, so no concerns there. Winds can vary, but they appear to be blowing in at Baltimore and New York, while we could see some balls pushed out to right in Chicago.
Pitching
Max Scherzer, TEX at MIN ($11,000): If we accept we have to pay up for one of the five, I immediately rule out Joe Ryan (returning from IL) and Kyle Bradish (talent likely doesn't match price, despite favorable matchup). That leaves three options. Freddy Peralta is in the best form but I can't trust the Padres to be awful. Zack Wheeler isn't in great form....so we're left with Scherzer. The Twins offense is all over the place, ranking sixth with a .328 wOBA off righties. But the appeal is their high strikeout rate at a whopping 27.7 percent. Scherzer was pretty bad in his last outing, but had four straight quality starts prior, showing a 46-FanDuel point (FDP) floor and 64-FDP ceiling. That makes him worth the price point.
Javier Assad, CHC at PIT ($7,500): We're just hoping for serviceable production in these other options. Assad has two quality starts in his last three, going at least 5.1 innings in each of those while only allowing five total earned runs. That seems to work here, and the matchup suggests he can repeat it again. Pittsburgh has a below average 89 wRC+ off righties, striking out enough at a 23.9 percent rate. I'm not sure we can get to 30 FDP here given Assad pitches to contact (only 6.6 Ks per nine), so we need innings and minimal damage. The Pirates offer that more times than not.
Pedro Avila, SD at MIL ($6,300): Avila profiles completely the opposite of Assad. We have no idea how many innings he'll earn as he's just starting to stretch out, but the strikeout potential is significantly greater. Milwaukee fans at a marginally lower 23.1 percent rate compared to Pittsburgh, but Avila is averaging 11.0 Ks/9. The Brewers have a weak .141 ISO and 88 wRC+, and we only need 25.2 FDP for a 4x return. If Avila misses bats, he may not need five innings to get there, and if he works enough to be win eligible, he could be a slate breaker. It's a wish and a hope, but the opportunity to match his adversary in Peralta isn't outlandish.
Top Targets
Carlos Carrasco shows every time out he can't get Major League hitters out. He's allowing a .386 wOBA and .881 OPS to lefties at home, not incredibly huge numbers but not great either. Shohei Ohtani ($4,400) is an easy building block here. It's an incredibly small sample, but he's 3-for-4 off Carrasco with a homer.
Luis Robert ($3,700) has slowed some and isn't the must-use option he'd been earlier in the year off lefties, but the splits are still very favorable. He comes in with a .408 wOBA, 163 wRC+ and .289 ISO off southpaws. His feast or famine nature makes him far more appealing for GPPs than cash settings however.
I had a hunch last night on game stacking the Reds-Diamondbacks, and while the pieces I chose weren't perfect, the thought process was. There's no reason to fade that here with bad pitching on both sides again likely. Corbin Carroll ($3,800) managed 18.2 FDP without a hit last night, and now has double-digit fantasy points in five of six. He's out of his funk and should produce again Saturday.
Bargain Bats
The one piece I nailed in Arizona last night was Will Benson ($2,800) thanks to a grand slam. He's not on fire, but does have five hits in his last five, earning double-digit fantasy points three times. Pair that with a .405 wOBA, 151 wRC+ and .251 ISO off righties, and I'll go back to the well again at this price.
Oriole bats remain priced far too low across their entire lineup, making for a clear and obvious stacking opportunity in a highly favorable matchup. Chris Flexen is worse outside of Coors Field, posting a 9.35 ERA and 8.15 FIP on the road, allowing a .477 wOBA and 1.117 OPS to lefties, and .484/1.156 to righties. As opposed to stacking, perhaps build your lineup elsewhere and plug in holes from the Baltimore attack. Gunnar Henderson ($3,500) is the highest-priced option, and makes plenty of sense. He's got a team best .363 wOBA and 134 wRC+, and has hit safely in 10 straight. Austin Hays ($2,700) may offer a bit more value and is riding a seven-game hitting streak, homering twice.
Nolan Schanuel ($2,700) has had a meteoric rise to the majors, and shows he belongs, hitting in all seven games since his promotion. He offers a cheaper in to the Angels against Carrasco.
Stack to Consider
Athletics vs. Touki Toussaint: Zack Gelof ($4,000), Brent Rooker ($2,900), Ryan Noda ($2,800)
This is all about trying to do something different. We've identified Baltimore, Cincinnati and Arizona as offenses we want to target, perhaps Los Angeles too, but they look pretty chalky. Oakland likely isn't that, because well, they are Oakland. Toussaint doesn't have hightly targetable splits, but he walks a ton (6.8 per nine) and that leads to damage. Gelof likely has stand alone appeal, posting a terrific .443 wOBA, 193 wRC+ and .396 ISO off righties. Rooker has 14 hits in his last 10 games, including three homers. And Noda comes with a .351 wOBA, second in this lineup, while showing a willingness to walk at 17.4 percent. He's got ten hits in his last nine, including two homers.
