This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
We emerge from the All-Star break to find an 11-game Friday evening main slate at FanDuel. It's always the most challenging of the season, save for maybe Opening Day, as we don't have confirmed starters throughout the slate. I'm traveling Friday and have to get this in earlier than I'd prefer, unfortunately. As of Thursday evening, Toronto, Miami, Baltimore, Texas, San Fransisco, Colorado, Oakland, Seattle and both Los Angeles teams were without listed starters at FanDuel. I'm not even sure the listed arms are 100 percent confirmed. This column will use a lot of assumptions based on betting lines and listed arms from the books. Please confirm things mid-day Friday or later.
To no surprise, our highest run total comes in Coors Field at 10.0. Four additional games follow with a line of 8.5 runs, so our season-long trend of offense lacking remains. It's too early to consider weather reports, so be sure to also check for any potential rain concerns or wind boosts.
Pitching
Hunter Brown, HOU at SEA ($9,100): There's no shortage of fine options despite the pitching ambiguity. I believe Gerrit Cole, Jack Flaherty and Michael Wacha all merit strong consideration. But I'll settle on Brown for stability and potential. Seattle's swing-and-miss tendencies remain something to look at nightly, sitting at 28.9 percent off righties. The divisional matchup gives us a larger head-to-head sample. The Mariners have hit .305 off Brown, but only with a .749 OPS, having not homered off him. Further, he's allowed three runs against them this season across 10.1 innings. Brown has also struck out the Mariners at a 34.4 percent mark. The expectation is soft contact, high strikeouts and minimal damage.
James Paxton, LAD vs. BOS ($8,500): Sean Manaea is the play here for safety, but you'll get a bit of a price break on Paxton and surely lower usage. We know Boston is a lefty-heavy lineup that's struggled against southpaws, entering Friday with a .311 wOBA, 95 wRC+, and a massive 29.2 percent strikeout rate. Paxton is allowing a .245 wOBA and .547 OPS to same-handed bats, numbers that fall to .200/.433 at home. Paxton limped into the All-Star break, so this is a risk. With a plethora of options, it could be unnecessary. But for GPPs, the matchup suggests he'll be successful.
Chris Flexen, CWS at KC ($6,800): We know these pay-down options can blow up in our faces. Flexen has a 4.86 road ERA and 4.36 xFIP, so he's not going to be clean. But he's allowed a tolerable 12 runs across his last five starts, working at least 5.2 innings in each and earning four quality start bonuses. Kansas City doesn't strike out often (19.1 percent) but they also have a below average 95 wRC+, so there's potential for Flexen to be serviceable. He's also allowed Kansas City's current roster to go 6-for-37 (.162) with a .468 OPS off him.
Top Targets
Rays starter Zach Eflin has a 5.37 road ERA, though just a 3.69 xFIP and no clear targetable splits. That said, Juan Soto ($4,300) has had his way with Eflin, going 14-for-31 (.452) with a 1.255 OPS and 10 RBI.
Jon Gray limped into the break, allowing 23 runs and 34 hits across his last five starts, spanning 23.0 innings and that includes a six-inning shutout of the Royals. He's allowing a .372 wOBA to lefties against .246 to righties, making Gunnar Henderson ($4,300) an obvious target. He's 4-for-9 off Gray with a homer.
Bargain Bats
Rockies-Giants is the easiest place to look given the ballpark and run total, but also because no bat here is priced above $3,400, a rarity in Coors Field. But presumed starters (Logan Webb and Cal Quantrill) have decent numbers off their opponents, so going all in isn't necessary. Quantrill has allowed a .379 wOBA to lefties at home, and the Giants will have a plethora of them in the lineup. Michael Conforto ($2,900) and LaMonte Wade ($2,600) are a combined 3-for-8 against Quantrill with a homer. On the other side, it's a strictly BvP play, but Ryan McMahon ($2,900) and Charlie Blackmon ($2,600) are a combined 24-for-71 (.338) with two homers and seven doubles.
Baltimore figures to have ample lefties in their lineup if you're buying the angle against Gray, but not necessarily in lineup positions where we can traditionally stack. Cedric Mullins ($2,600) is 3-for-9 with two homers off Gray.
Angels-Athletics could be a spot to snag some cheap one-offs to round out your lineup, as neither JP Sears nor Griffin Canning are trustworthy starters. Of course, neither are these offenses, so tread lightly, but we do have an 8.5-run total with both teams expected to plate over four runs. Sears is more getable for righties, which the Angels have plenty of. Zach Neto ($2,800) is likely the safest bet, but if you're a BvP guy, you could take a deep dart throw on Brandon Drury ($2,400) who is 5-for-8 with two homers off Sears. We'll want to target lefties against Canning, putting Lawrence Butler ($3,000), JJ Bleday ($2,900) and possibly Seth Brown ($2,500) into consideration.
Stacks to Consider
Mets vs. Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Francisco Lindor ($3,700), Brandon Nimmo ($3,600), Pete Alonso ($3,300)
Cabrera can't get left-handed hitters out, allowing a .399 wOBA and .924 OPS. He's been better at home, as his 6.00 ERA comes with just a 2.68 xFIP, so there is some risk involved here. Further adding to that, we don't want to chase power potential too heavily in this ballpark. But the Mets come with an expected run total of five, amongst the highest on this slate. While expensive, we get the targetable splits with Lindor and Nimmo. Yes, don't chase power, but Alonso offers it and he's 3-for-12 off Cabrera with all three hits leaving the yard.
Tigers vs. Chris Bassitt (Blue Jays): Riley Greene ($3,500), Colt Keith ($3,100), Matt Vierling ($2,900)
Bassitt has allowed seven runs and 13 hits over his last 10 innings. This current Tigers roster is 20-for-58 (.345) with four homers and a 1.008 OPS off him. He's been more vulnerable to lefties overall, allowing a respectable .348 wOBA against .273 to righties, so I'll target Greene and Keith from the left side atop this lineup. The third piece is a bit less clear. Vierling is 0-for-4 off Bassitt but gives us a third top-of-the-order bat. If you're a BvP guy, it likely doesn't work as a full-on stack given the expected lineup position, but Zach McKinstry ($2,500) would be a third left-handed bat that has eligibility at four spots and is 4-for-11 with two homers off Toronto's starter. We're talking GPPs only here.
