This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
12 games are featured in Friday's FanDuel main contest. Four arms sit priced n five-figures with seven additional pitchers coming in with prices of $9,000 or greater. With no starter listed for the Angels, that's roughly 43 percent of the arms priced highly, seemingly forcing our hand.
Three games have run totals of 9.5 or greater, led by Dodgers-Red Sox, while the late nightcap in San Francisco comes in with the slate's lowest total of 7.5. While it's more likely storms than long term rain, weather is questionable in the northeast, with Boston and Baltimore being potential trouble spots, with Philadelphia and New York also worth monitoring.
Pitching
Kodai Senga, NYM vs. LAA ($10,900): There aren't bad options throughout the uppier tier of arms; they are priced that way for a reason. The challenge is finding the right one that pops off, while also trying to gain an edge via low usage. Perhaps Senga offers just that. He continues to miss bats, averaging 10.7 per nine. He's had three straight quality starts and four in his last five, and while the Angels have a decent enough .325 wOBA and 105 wRC+ off righties, they also fan at a 24.6 percent rate. If Senga can whiff one of every four and goes six innings or more, we've got the right mix for 40 FDP.
Bryce Miller, SEA vs. KC ($8,800): The matchup makes this the clear and easy option to not pay a premium for pitching. Kansas City ranks 28th with a .300 wOBA off righties, posting just an 85 wRC+ while striking out 22.9 percent of the time. But there are some concerns to consider. He's fanned only four total in his last two starts and averages just 8.2 per nine. He has a 3.29 home ERA, but a 4.69 xFIP. Further, walks have been a problem, preventing him from working deep into games, posting just one quality start in his last nine starts. There may not be 4x upside if the strikeouts aren't there, but Miller presents as stable and seemingly safe.
Cole Irvin, BAL vs. COL ($6,200): If you trust the numbers, then you'll be willing to take a shot on Irvin for GPPs. Colorado has been awful against lefties all season, coming into Friday with a high 26.9 percent K rate, and league worst 66 wRC+, well below league-average, adding just a .291 wOBA. Irvin doesn't work deep, so there's minimal chance at a quality start, and only a puncher's chance at a win. But he's quietly allowed just one run and six hits over his last 10 innings, aveaging 27 FDP. That's a 4.35x return, which is very welcomed at this price.
Top Targets
Cardinals' starter Miles Mikolas has allowed 11 runs and 12 hits across his last two starts, spanning 11.0 frames. Bryce Harper ($3,800) is 5-for-12 with two homers off Mikolas, and the power is returning to his bat with homers in three straight and five of his last seven, and he also sports a team-best .381 wOBA and 139 wRC+ off righties.
The top-priced bats profile similarly to the arms. They are priced there for a reason, and we don't need to spend a ton of time discussing. But they largely aren't in must-use spots given pitching matchups. If paying all the way up for offense, Ronald Acuna ($4,800) and/or Corey Seager ($4,500) are my preferences. But I think we can get some punch from cheaper guys like Harper, and perhaps Corbin Carroll ($3,800) Friday. This Reds-Diamondbacks game is one I'm eyeing from both sides. Hunter Greene doesn't have targetable stats to either handed batters, but Carroll has done it all year off righties, with a team-best .386 wOBA, 143 wRC+ and .280 ISO. We know Greene can be wild, giving Carroll walk and steal potential, and Greene is also prone to the long ball.
Bargain Bats
Marcell Ozuna ($3,300) and Eddie Rosario ($2,800) carried Atlanta during their nine-game homestand. Ozuna's price has risen enough to question, but he's got multiple hits in four of his last five, including four homers. Rosario meanwhile is 4-for-7 (.571) off Giants' starter Logan Webb, and has homered in four of his last seven, going 13-for-24 with 12 RBI in that stretch.
The White Sox don't have targetable splits off righties, nor do the offer much game to game consistency. But it's advisable to target at least something here against Zach Neal and then the A's bullpen. Andrew Benintendi ($2,800) has two of his four homers in his last three games, and is 10-for-23 of his last six games.
Phillies' starter Cristopher Sanchez has shown enough, and when paired with the Cardinals season-long struggles, it's enough to not consider a stack here. But St. Louis does offer some appeal off the lefty. Tyler O'Neill ($2,700) is priced favorably given his team-best .412 wOBA off southpaws, adding a .289 ISO and 165 wRC+. Willson Contreras ($2,800) has a .234 ISO and 47.8 hard hit percentage against lefties.
Stacks to Consider
Orioles vs. Kyle Freeland: Anthony Santander ($3,200), Ryan Mountcastle ($3,100), Adley Rutschman ($3,000)
Freeland is surprisingly worse on the road, allowing a 5.40 ERA and 5.71 xFIP. Unsurprisingly, it's righties doing him in, as they earn a .385 wOBA and .922 OPS. Mountcastle and Rustchman are terrific off lefties, with the former sporting a .445 wOBA, 190 wRC+ and .347 ISO, and the latter sitting at .405/162/.183. Rustchman is hot too, earning at least 9.2 FDP in seven straight. They also likely hit atop the Orioles order, making this very favorable. The third piece is interchangeable. Santander isn't pricey and has a reasonable 115 wRC+ in this spot, offering a third top of the order bat, but paying up for Gunnar Henderson or Cedric Mullins isn't out of the question given the cheap nature of Mountcastle and Rutschman.
Reds vs. Brandon Pfaadt: Matt McLain ($3,700), TJ Friedl ($3,100), Will Benson ($2,800)
Pfaadt has pitched better of late, but he's still struggling at home, allowing a 7.96 ERA (.500 FIP), with righties posting a .420 wOBA and 1.014 OPS, and lefties a .399 wOBA and .934 OPS, seemingly opening up the entire Reds offense for consideration. McLain is our anchor, though has just a decent .357 wOBA and 118 wRC+. Benson seems to offer some upside on the cheap end, boasting a .400 wOBA, 157 wRC+ and .239 ISO, though he has only four hits over his last 21 at bats and hasn't homered since July 25. If we're trusting his splits here, and assuming he hits near the bottom of the lineup, it's a tad unconventional to stack those two. Enter Freidl as a potential leadoff option, and things get a little more tight knit.
