This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
A 12-game slate is offered in Friday evening's main slate at FanDuel. It's a top-heavy pitching slate, with five arms checking in at $10,000 or greater and three more in the $9k tier. Spencer Strider ($11,500) is in a smash spot against a Giants offense that strikes out often. Pablo Lopez ($10,800) gets the usually targetable Pirates, making for a seemingly safe play, and Michael Lorenzen ($10,200) faces a lineup he no hit in his last start. They all make plenty of sense and figure to be heavily targeted if affordable. As such, that's all the space they'll get here, and I'll aim to offer some different thoughts.
Somewhat surprisingly given that pitching appears to drop in quality rapidly, we have only one game with a double-digit listed total (at Coors Field of course), though two games are currently unlisted. Wind looks to be blowing out in Yankee Stadium, and possibly in all four of our California games. Colorado looks like our only potential spot for wet weather, though not severe.
Pitching
Sandy Alcantara, MIA at LAD ($10,000): Alcantara is starting to show the Cy Young form he showed a season ago. He's fanned seven or more in four of his last five, while allowing one or no runs in three of those starts. Not many are likely to favor him over the above names given that he's facing the potent Dodger lineup, which of course makes this a risky play, but it's not without merit. Dodger bats are hitting .268 overall off Alcantara with just two homers and a .692 OPS, while fanning at a moderate 21.7 percent clip. It's not a spot where we're expecting a 4x return or better, but a quality start can be a difference maker against the other high-priced options.
Kyle Gibson, BAL at OAK ($9,900): Perhaps Gibson's presence and the matchup make the names listed in the intro someone less obvious. When he's good, he's really good, as evidenced by 37+ FDP in four of his last seven, with a serious 58-point ceiling. When he's bad, he's really bad, however, allowing 14 runs and 21 hits in 10.2 innings in two poor outings during this stretch. Oakland has made some lineup improvements through youth, so they aren't quite as targetable as they were in May. Gibson did limit them to one run over 6.1 innings earlier in the year. He's not a big strikeout guy, so we need innings and minimal damage. It's possible to probable, but I find this a risky proposition at the price point.
Seth Lugo, SD vs. ARI ($8,800): Full disclosure: finding any paydown options on the bump was a challenge for this slate. Lugo isn't exactly cheap, and he's not overly consistent either. But he's faired well against the Diamondbacks this season, allowing just four runs and 12 hits across 11 innings, leading to a 3.27 ERA and .279 wOBA. He's also fanned 10 in that span. Arizona bats got hot in Colorado to no one's surprise, but they were mired in a major slump previously and can be expected to cool again in short order.
Top Targets
I have interest in Brayan Bello on the mound; the Yankees offense looks listless and checked out, losing five straight and six of seven, scoring more than three runs just once. But Bello appears to be hitting a wall too, having allowed three or more runs in five of six, surrendering nine homers in that span. If indeed the winds are blowing out, Aaron Judge ($4,000) simply has to put his team on his back in this series.
Only two factors appear to be reasons to fade Shohei Ohtani ($4,500) Friday: price, as well as how many chances he'll get against Rays' starter Erasmo Ramirez. Regurgitating stats for Ohtani is likely redundant, but he has a robust .455 wOBA, 195 wRC+ and .378 ISO off righties and could be looking at another power binge, homering twice in his last four after an eight-game drought.
Bargain Bats
William Contreras ($3,100) has only one hit in his last 10 at-bats, but facing a lefty Friday hopefully gets him back on track. He flirts with must-use in this situation given the price, boasting a .435 wOBA, 176 wRC+ and .309 ISO off southpaws this year.
Rockies' starter Peter Lambert has an 8.14 home ERA (6.59 FIP), allowing a .482 wOBA and 1.136 OPS to lefties, and .423/1.048 to righties, seemingly opening up the entire White Sox lineup. And with only one player priced above $3,500, there are extremely stackable, which makes them obvious. Grab some cheaper shares to get a piece and load up elsewhere. Oscar Colas ($2,800) offers power, Elvis Andrus ($2,900) or Andrew Benintendi ($3,100) some contact stability, and Yoan Moncada ($3,000) a likely overlooked option with multiple hits in four of his last six.
Alex Cobb has been far worse on the road, and actually worse against righties than lefties. That said, Michael Harris ($2,900) is too cheap to pass up. He hasn't fared well since his move to the two-hole, going just 2-for-12, but his spot around the rest of the Atlanta bats when paired with his salary offer too much potential for a big game.
Tampa has positive splits against lefties and should get multiple chances against Angels' starter Tyler Anderson, who's made it into the fifth inning in four straight despite allowing 14 runs and 23 hits. Yandy Diaz ($3,600) isn't exactly a bargain, but he boasts a .394 wOBA, 160 wRC+ and .220 ISO off southpaws. Harold Ramirez ($2,600) is far more bargain-friendly, with far less upside. He does have seven hits in his last four, and a .431 wOBA, 185 wRC+ and .218 ISO off lefties for the season.
Stacks to Consider
Red Sox vs. Jhony Brito: Rafael Devers ($3,500), Trevor Story ($3,200), Triston Casas ($3,000)
This is a tad risky, but also a tad interchangeable. The Red Sox aren't swinging well throughout the lineup, but that's lowered pricing to attractive levels, and if the wind is in fact blowing out, we could be in for a slugfest. Brito has a 5.26 home ERA and 6.46 FIP. He's been slightly more vulnerable to righties, and while the Red Sox are left-handed heavy, they do have power throughout the lineup. Devers and Casas both homered Thursday, offering some hope of a hot streak, and Casas has arguably been their best hitter in August. Story is hitless in his last three after showing brief glimpses of his former self, and gives us a righty to break up the lefties in the heart of the order. But given the price points, it's the lineup we're targeting more than the three names listed here. Devers should anchor the stack, but feel free to mix and match any of the top six BoSox bats.
Orioles vs. Luis Medina: Cedric Mullins ($3,500), Gunnar Henderson ($3,000), Ryan Mountcastle ($3,000)
Medina's splits aren't hugely targetable for lefties or righties, but he has a 4.39 home ERA and 5.02 FIP, so he's not going to shut down a deep O's lineup, that's priced very favorably throughout. Mountcastle is the anchor here; he continues to hit, with at least one in 21 of his last 23 games, posting double-digit fantasy points in 11 of those. Henderson is the team's best off righties with a .351 wOBA, 125 wRC+ and .261 ISO. Mullins is priced for upside that he hasn't shown since returning from injury, but does have four hits in his last four games, including two for extra base hits, potentially suggesting he's getting his timing together.
