This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
This weekend isn't just about the start of the NBA playoffs. Sunday gives us our typical selection of MLB action. As per usual, the main slate of DFS contests on DraftKings is focused on the early-afternoon matchups. That means 10 games with the first pitch at 1:10 p.m. EDT. Here are my recommendations.
Pitching
Shane Bieber, CLE at WAS ($10,100): Bieber has been striking out fewer batters, but is possibly becoming a better pitcher in the process. Last year, he fanned a career-low 8.91 batters per nine innings, but posted a 2.87 FIP over 31 starts. This season, his strikeouts are down again, but he's at a 2.53 through three appearances. The Nationals, meanwhile, rank bottom-10 in runs scored - and that's even with an early trip to Coors boosting their numbers.
Reid Detmers, LAA at BOS ($8,600): Detmers has so far faced the Mariners and Blue Jays, two tough opponents. He may have a 5.59 ERA, but that's with a 4.10 FIP while striking out 11.17 batters per nine innings. Detmers managed a 3.78 FIP in 25 starts as a rookie last year, so I think he'll be fine. He's also a lefty, which could help neutralize Boston's key batters - particularly Rafael Devers, the one upper-echelon bat in the lineup.
Kyle Wright, ATL at KC ($7,200): Wright's first start of the season was a disaster, but I'm not fretting considering his 3.19 ERA over 30 starts last year. The Royals sit 29th in team OPS, and they could be challenging for the title of MLB's worst offense with the way this season has started and their current roster.
Top Targets
It'll be quite difficult for Austin Riley ($5,500) to take another step forward as a hitter, though he's threatened to do so by producing a .316 with three homers. Even if he's just someone who posted an .887 OPS and crushed 30-plus homers in each of his last two campaigns, that will suffice. Zack Greinke's numbers are a little head-scratching as he doesn't strike out anybody and allows plenty of contact. He may have a 3.64 ERA since rejoining the Royals in 2022, but righties have hit .285 against the last three seasons, so I trust a bat like Riley's.
If Taylor Ward ($5,100) is going to be leading off for a lineup where he's followed by Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, he's primed to score a lot of runs. That's as long as he gets on base, but this is a hitter with a .362 OBP the last two seasons. Garrett Whitlock got a taste of starting in 2022, but he's in the rotation to start this season and struggled in his first outing by giving up three home runs in five innings.
Bargain Bats
If stolen bases do rise this year - as many indicators point toward - Ji Hwan Bae ($3,900) is an intriguing name. He stole three bases in 10 games last year and has four through 12 to go with two homers. Miles Mikolas has had a disastrous start to the year with a 10.05 ERA through three appearances. He's also a righty, and it tends to be easier to steal against right-handers.
With the White Sox's injury issues and the fact Gavin Sheets ($2,400) has recorded a .983 home OPS since 2021, I expect him in the lineup against a righty Sunday. That starter in question is Grayson Rodriguez, who's posted a 6.75 ERA through two starts. He was considered one of the top pitching prospects in baseball before his debut, but you know who else that was true for? Hunter Greene, who allowed a lot of home runs during a tough rookie campaign.
Stacks to Consider
Guardians at Nationals (Patrick Corbin): Jose Ramirez ($5,800), Amed Rosario ($4,500), Josh Bell ($3,600)
I recommend stacking against Corbin every time he takes the mound. But if every day you left your house and somebody just handed you 20 bucks, you aren't going to turn it down for the sake of variety, right? Corbin has been arguably the worst regular starter in baseball the last few years, and has struggled to a 7.17 ERA through three starts so far. He's a southpaw, so that did tweak my decisions in terms of stacking Guardians.
Everything has been here for Ramirez in 2023 except for the homers, but he hit 29 last year and 36 the previous campaign. He's managed a .423 OBP and stolen four bases, so why quibble too much? Since 2021, Rosario has registered an .803 OPS versus lefties. And during the same timeframe, Corbin has allowed a .315 average to righties. Bell - like Ramirez - is a switch-hitter, but he definitely prefers to face lefties with an .817 OPS against them the last three seasons.
Phillies at Reds (Luis Cessa): Kyle Schwarber ($5,800), Nick Castellanos ($5,000), Bryson Stott ($3,200)
Cessa has primarily operated as a relief pitcher. He came on in relief last year, but also made 10 starts and posted a 5.02 FIP. Cessa's been in the rotation from the get-go this season, and that's yielded a 7.26 FIP. He doesn't seem cut out to be a starter, to the benefit of these three Phillies.
It's been your usual season from Schwarber, which is to say plenty of power but no worry he'll challenge for a batting title. He led the NL with 46 homers in 2022 and is at four this year. Since 2021, the southpaw has produced a .923 OPS against righties. Castellanos' first season with Philly was rough, but he's started 2023 slashing .286/.375/.446. And only two seasons ago, he posted a .938 OPS. As a rookie, Stott notched double-digit home runs and stolen bases, even though he had a sub-.300 OBP. This year, that mark is up to .385.
