This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Friday is the start of an epic holiday weekend, what with the Fourth of July being on a Tuesday this year. Let's kick things off right! There are 12 MLB games Friday starting at 7:05 p.m. ET or later. Here are my DFS recommendations.
Pitching
Shane McClanahan, TAM at SEA ($11,000): McClanahan is returning from a back issue that he nursed in lieu of a trip to the IL, and if he's healthy, he's as good as any pitcher in MLB. Through 16 starts, McClanahan has a 2.23 ERA, and he has a career 2.75 ERA. The lefty is facing a Mariners team that is below average in runs scored, and they are one of seven teams with a sub-.700 OPS.
Freddy Peralta, MIL at PIT ($9,700): Peralta has been bad on the road this year, but he had a 2.51 ERA in away games last year, and a 2.70 ERA away from home the year prior. As such, I am not against chalking Peralta's road woes up as fluky or matchup based. The Pirates aren't an imposing matchup, as they have collapsed after a hot start and are now 25th in runs scored.
Osvaldo Bido, PIT vs. MIL ($7,800): Flipping that matchup around, I really like the upside of Bido. He's only made three MLB starts, but he has a 2.94 FIP and has struck out 10.34 batters per nine innings. Pittsburgh has been poor offensively, but Milwaukee has been even worse. The Brewers are in the bottom five in runs scored and team OPS.
Top Targets
Since the day he hit the majors, Bo Bichette ($5,400) has been an above-average hitter, and this year he's slashed .319/.347/.504 with 14 home runs. While he usually is better on the road, since 2021 he has a .910 OPS against lefties, so I still like Bichette in this matchup. James Paxton is a southpaw, and he has a 3.40 FIP in his first season with Boston. It's only been over 26.1 innings, but he has a 4.10 ERA on the road as well. Bo Bichette has a .910 OPS against lefties and will hit against Boston southpaw James Paxton tonight in Toronto.
The scorching-hot Luis Robert ($4,700) (1.097 OPS over the last three weeks) has 23 home runs thanks to his recent power binge. Yes, he's been better against lefties, and at home, but at this salary I still likely him in this matchup. Luis Medina has a 6.14 ERA at home and has allowed 2.5 home runs per nine innings in Oakland as well. Righties have also hit .291 against the rookie.
Bargain Bats
Since joining the Rockies, C.J. Cron ($4,600) has hit both righties and lefties well, but Coors Field has been the key. He has a .974 OPS at home. In his first season with the Tigers, Michael Lorenzen has a 4.43 FIP and has only struck out 6.78 batters per nine innings. Additionally, righties have hit .304 against him.
Catcher Jake Rogers ($4,000) doesn't make a lot of contact, but he's hit 10 home runs in 52 games, and that kind of power at Coors for his position is intriguing to me. Plus, since 2021 he has a .994 OPS against lefties (in a sample size of 93 plate appearances, but even so). It's worth taking a shot on Rogers in this matchup with lefty Austin Gomber. Gomber has taken struggles at Coors Field to a new level, as he has an 8.72 OPS at home this season.
Stacks to Consider
Dodgers at Royals (Alec Marsh): Freddie Freeman ($6,000), J.D. Martinez ($5,500), Max Muncy ($5,000)
This looked like an appealing stack when the Dodgers were set to face Jordan Lyles, and it's just as appealing against Alec Marsh, who will step in for a spot start with Lyles scratched due to illness. The 25-year-old will be making his MLB debut after a season full of mixed results in the minors. His 2.40 ERA in three Triple-A starts is strong, but he struggled to a 5.32 ERA in 11 Double-A outings and has shown poor control throughout his rise to the majors, consistently recording double-digit walk rates.
Freeman has been oddly successful against lefties this year, but his .943 OPS against righties since 2021 sticks out to me. So does the fact he's slugged over .550 on the road since signing with the Dodgers last season. Martinez, an even-more-recent signing for the Dodgers, has a .991 OPS on the road this year. He also has an .894 OPS versus righties. Muncy is more of an all-or-nothing hitter, but the lefty has hit 18 home runs this year even with missing time. He's also slugged .462 against right handers since 2021.
Orioles vs. Twins (Pablo Lopez): Cedric Mullins ($4,900), Gunnar Henderson, ($4,700), Ryan O'Hearn ($3,500)
Though Lopez has a 2.94 road ERA compared to a 5.94 home ERA, I still wanted this stack. Why? Because lefties have hit .270 against Lopez this year, and .252 since 2021. The Orioles have a lineup built to handle righties with issues getting left handers out, so Lopez's home/road splits don't deter me as a result.
Mullins has stolen 30 bases in each of his last two seasons, and he has 13 this year in only 58 games. To the extent he shows power, the lefty has a .493 slugging percentage against righties since 2021. Henderson has been on fire, as he has an 1.071 OPS over the last three weeks. He still need to improve against southpaws to fully live up to the prospect hype, but he has an .887 OPS against righties in his career already. O'Hearn has earned a role with the Orioles solely based on being a platoon bat handling righties. This year he has a .912 OPS versus right-handed pitchers, and a .937 OPS at home.
Giants at Mets (Carlos Carrasco): Thairo Estrada ($5,200), Joc Pederson ($4,900), J.D. Davis ($4,200)
Carrasco has become an "all hands on deck" type matchup when he hits the mound. For the second time in three seasons, the righty is primed to have an ERA over 6.00. This year he also has an 8.20 ERA at home, where he's allowed 2.9 home runs per nine innings. Since 2021, righties have hit .299 against Carrasco, so I have two righties in this stack.
I wish Estrada wasn't cold right now, but on the season he has a .273 average with nine homers and 18 stolen bases. It's easier to steal on a righty, and when a righty also lets hitters like you average .299 against him, it's worth seeing if Estrada can get on track. Pederson is a lefty, but with his power I'll still take him against a homer-happy pitcher. All eight of his homers have come against righties this year, and since 2021 he's slugged .489 against righties. Davis, a former Met, has an .820 OPS against right handers since 2021. Notably, in his first full season with the Giants, he also has a .924 OPS on the road.
