This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Friday is packed with evening baseball, with 14 games happening at 7:05 p.m. ET or later. Only the Cubs are Orioles are missing out on the fun thanks to a matinee game at Wrigley. Here are my recommendations for your DFS lineups to kick the weekend off on a high note.
Pitching
Joe Ryan, MIN vs. DET ($10,600): Setting aside his five-game cameo in 2021, Ryan has performed quite well at home in his career. He had a 3.04 ERA in home starts last season, and this year that number is down to 2.35. Not only is Ryan at home, but only the Athletics are competing with the Tigers in terms of offensive futility.
Zac Gallen, ARI vs. CLE ($10,200): Gallen's last start was rough, and the fact it came against the Tigers is concerning. However, he has a 2.39 FIP after having a 3.04 FIP in 2022, so I am willing to chalk that up as an off day. Like the Tigers, the Guardians are in the bottom four in runs scored, a group that has separated itself from the rest of MLB as the offensive dregs. Cleveland is also last in home runs.
Sandy Alcantara, MIA at WAS ($9,100): Alcantara has had one of the stranger follow-up campaigns to winning a Cy Young, but while he has a 4.75 ERA, he has a 3.77 FIP. Sure, that's not good, but it's better than his ERA number, and Alcantara has still only allowed 0.76 home runs per nine innings. Both of these teams are in the bottom seven in runs scored, but the Nationals are also 29th in home runs. I'll take a shot on the Cy Young winner and hope he shows some of that Friday.
Top Targets
If I can get Rafael Devers ($5,800) against a righty at Fenway, I tend to grab it. Since 2021, he has a .925 OPS versus righties and an .898 OPS at home. Domingo German, a righty, has a 3.49 ERA, but a 4.37 FIP. He's always had an issue allowing homers, having given up 1.57 per nine innings in his career. Power is the name of the game for Devers, who has slugged .512 in his time with the Red Sox.
The numbers are down for Vladimir Guerrero ($5,100), but mostly that's owing to his inexplicable struggles at home. On the road, Vladito has slashed .314/.386/.557 and hit all nine of his homers. Martin Perez has a 4.89 FIP, but I will note that he has an 1.40 ERA at home and a 6.50 ERA on the road. That's why I avoided a stack for Toronto, but I will take Guerrero's road success against Perez's home success (noting that Perez's home ERA was 2.92 in 2022). Tipping the scale for me: Perez has allowed righties to hit .296 against him.
Bargain Bats
While Owen Miller ($4,200) has hit a cold stretch that is indicative of a hot start that may have given way toward regression toward career norms, he has still slashed .301/.337/.432 with four homers and nine stolen bases. I still think he's worth a shot in the right matchup, such as this one. Miller has an .809 OPS in his new home ballpark, for starters. Second, Rich Hill is scheduled to start, though he has been bumped a couple times already at this point. Hey, I get it. One, Hill is 43 now. Two, he has a 4.23 ERA after posting a 4.27 ERA in 2022. The lefty's value had been in performing as an innings eater due to his pitching style, but has he perhaps even aged out of that at this point?
It's been a down year from a power perspective for Eugenio Suarez ($3,600), which is a surprise given his track record. Usually you can count on Suarez for a low average but at least 30 homers, and indeed he hit 31 home runs in both 2022 and 2021. Maybe a matchup with Michael Kopech is what the former Red needs. He doesn't allow much contact, but he still has a 4.03 ERA and 5.28 FIP. His problem is that he walks a lot of batters, and then also has allowed 1.83 home runs per nine innings. That means when somebody makes contact against Kopech, it often leaves the park, and with men on base for good measure.
Top Targets
Atlanta vs. Rockies (Dinelson Lamet): Matt Olson ($6,300), Austin Riley ($5,500), Marcell Ozuna ($3,700)
Starting the season in the bullpen, Lamet struggled, and since becoming a starter he's, well, continued to struggle. The righty has a 10.38 ERA, and that's after posting a 6.12 ERA last year fully working as a relief pitcher. Since 2021, lefties have hit .315 versus Lamet, but I didn't want to overload with lefties on account of the fact Lamet has gone over three innings exactly once all season. The Rockies will likely be turning to the bullpen fairly early.
Olson is the lefty I have in my lineup, as he has 19 homers to go with a .347 OBP. This year he's mashed righties while struggling against lefties, but since 2021 he has an .823 OPS versus southpaws, so that is an anomaly. Riley would love to see a lefty, as over the last three seasons his .851 OPS against righties is trumped by his .916 OPS against southpaws. However, Riley has an .890 OPS at home over that time frame, so given this matchup I'll still go with him. Ozuna is typically the designated hitter against righties, as Travis d'Arnaud has more of a lefty/righty split. This year Ozuna is bringing the power, having slugged .489 and hit 13 home runs.
Angels at Royals (Brady Singer): Shohei Ohtani ($6,400), Mike Trout ($6,000), Matt Thaiss ($2,900)
It's surprising to see Singer with a 6.58 ERA, and he does have a 4.62 FIP, but of course a 4.62 FIP isn't exactly good either. His strikeout rate and groundball rate are down, while his walks and homers are up. Righties have hit .278 against Singer, while lefties have hit .301. Owing to home/road splits, injuries, and cold stretches, I ended up with a couple hefty salaries in this stack. That being said, I think it's worth it, and I found a catcher to round it out to balance things for you.
Ohtani is a cinch at any salary in this matchup. He has 22 home runs and 10 stolen bases, and his OPS versus righties – as well as his OPS on the road – is over 1.000. Trout is having a down year by his all-time-great standards, but against righties and away from home he's still a top hitter. He has an .850 OPS versus right handers and an .896 OPS on the road. Thaiss wouldn't be playing as much if not for catcher injuries, but he's a good choice versus right-handed pitchers. He's slashed .285/.390/.407 but with an .821 OPS against righties.
Cardinals at Mets (Tylor Megill): Paul Goldschmidt ($5,800), Nolan Gorman ($4,700), Brendan Donovan ($3,300)
For the second season in a row, Megill has an ERA over 5.00. Last year he did have a 3.76 FIP, but this season his FIP is up at 5.17. Now, he does have a 3.03 ERA at home in 2023, but in his career he has a 4.09 ERA at home, so I am not fully buying in there. Also, in his career, lefties have hit .302 against Megill, so I found two southpaws for this stack.
Goldschmidt is a righty, and in the prior two seasons Megill kept righties in check. However, this year righties have hit .283 against the Mets pitcher. Meanwhile, "Goldy" usually mashes lefties, but this year he's struggled against them but has a .908 OPS versus righties. Gorman's power has been on full display, as he's slugged .507 and hit 15 homers. Notably, all 14 of his home runs last season were against righties, and the southpaw has an .847 OPS versus right handers this year. Donovan isn't much of a power guy, but he has six homers to go with four stolen bases. His strength is in his career .380 OBP and in his .769 OPS against righties. Any power he has comes in those matchups.
