This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
It's the final Friday of August, and we've got 12 games on the MLB slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET or later. To attempt to avoid the kind of disappointment Angels fans are feeling right now, here are my DFS recommendations to try and help you set up your rosters for success.
Pitching
Kodai Senga NYM vs. LAA ($9,600): Senga's rookie campaign has turned out to be the only bright spot of the Mets' rotation. He's been particularly good at home, where he has a 2.63 ERA. Now, the Angels are a top-10 offense in runs scored, but Mike Trout is back on the IL, Shohei Ohtani's elbow is injured, and things are looking bleak for the team.
Dylan Cease, CWS vs. OAK ($8,900): Cease may have a 4.50 ERA, but his 3.76 FIP is a bit less discouraging. He still isn't allowing home runs, and he's still striking out double-digit batters per nine innings. The Athletics are by far MLB's worst offense. There are 29 MLB teams that have scored more than 500 runs…and Oakland hasn't even hit 460 yet.
Bryce Miller, SEA vs. KC ($8,600): After a couple bad starts, over his last three outings Miller has an 1.06 ERA. On the season, the rookie has a 3.29 ERA at home. The Royals have managed to climb out of the bottom three in terms of runs scored and team OPS, but they are still going to finish in the bottom five on both fronts when all is said and done.
Top Targets
After having a 20/20 season as a rookie, Julio Rodriguez ($5,600) has himself a 20/30 season as a sophomore. He's exchanged some homers for doubles, representing a slight dip in power, but the production is still there. Brady Singer has a 6.75 ERA on the road, and the righty has allowed right-handed hitters to bat .296 against him. Since it is easier to steal on a righty by and large, that all adds up well for the reigning Rookie of the Year (to the extent one "reigns" with that particular award).
The one bright spot in the White Sox's lineup is Luis Robert ($5,500), who has slugged .554, hit 34 homers and added 16 stolen bases for good measure. He also has slugged .575 at home, and it is definitely easier to hit homers in Chicago's ballpark than Oakland's. Zach Neal is lined up for his first MLB start since 2016. In his career he has a 5.34 ERA. Maybe he'll only be in the game for a couple innings, but the Oakland bullpen doesn't worry me.
Bargain Bats
With a lefty on the mound, Ryan Mountcastle ($4,500) becomes quite enticing. This year, he's posted an 1.087 OPS against southpaws. Kyle Freeland is a lefty, and righties have hit .310 against him. Don't blame his number on Coors, either. He has a 5.40 ERA on the road.
In his first full season in MLB, Triston Casas ($4,400) has an .843 OPS against righties and an .859 OPS at home. Red Sox southpaws often excel at Fenway Park, and the slugging first baseman is no different. Now, Lance Lynn has been quite good since joining the Dodgers, but three of his games have been at home, and he's faced the Athletics, Brewers and Rockies in the mix. On the season, lefties have hit .306 against Lynn. Unless the Dodgers are truly able to work magic on every pitcher, I think Casas has a good chance against Lynn.
Stacks to Consider
Reds at Diamondbacks (Brandon Pfaadt): Elly De La Cruz ($6,000), TJ Friedl ($4,400), Will Benson ($3,500)
The Reds and Diamondbacks are two teams with young, exciting offense that may fall short of the playoffs because of the rotation. Pfaadt's rookie season has been a tough one to be sure. He has a 6.13 ERA and has allowed 2.04 homers per nine innings. In fact, at home the righty has a 7.96 ERA. I'm leaning lefty on this stack, as left-handed hitters have posted a .295 average against Pfaadt.
De La Cruz has 11 homers and 21 stolen bases, but he's done that in only 67 games. While he's a switch hitter, the rookie has an .849 OPS against righties, but has struggled against lefties. Friedl has hit .278 with 11 homers and 24 swiped bags. He has a .784 OPS against righties, but if a lefty comes out of the bullpen, Friedl actually has an .808 OPS in those matchups. With Joey Votto hitting the IL, Benson is the next-best option amongst lefties. In truth, me may be a better option. After all, Benson has a .945 OPS against lefties and an 1.006 OPS on the road.
Phillies vs. Cardinals (Miles Mikolas): Bryce Harper ($5,900), Nick Castellanos ($4,900), Bryson Stott ($4,400)
With Mikolas on the mound, the ball will be sprayed all over the park. That's just how it goes. He's struck out only 16.5 percent of the batters he's faced, walked a mere 4.8 percent, and has allowed 0.95 homers per nine innings. And yet, he has a 4.55 ERA. Righties have hit .276, while lefties have hit .278. There will be hits from the Phillies, probably a lot of them. That's why I'm stacking against Mikolas.
Harper has shown less power than usual, but an all-or-nothing guy like Kyle Schwarber isn't as well-suited for facing a pitcher like Mikolas. Meanwhile, Harper has hit .299 with a .392 OBP. And sure, he has slugged .479 against righties and .536 at home, which does help. Castellanos seems to have given up on walking as soon as he joined the Phillies, but he's still having a good campaign having hit .275 with 21 homers and seven stolen bases. Notably, in his second campaign with Philly he's picked things up at home, where he has a .901 OPS. Stott had 10 homers and 12 stolen bases as a rookie last season, and has 12 home runs and 24 swiped bags in 2023. Notably, though, he's lifted his average from .234 to .297, which is encouraging. He also has a .788 OPS against his fellow lefties, which is helpful when the bullpen comes into play.
Cardinals at Phillies (Cristopher Sanchez): Paul Goldschmidt ($5,600), Nolan Arenado ($5,500), Tommy Edman ($4,500)
In his first season exclusively starting for the Phillies (previously he would be in and out of the bullpen and the rotation), Sanchez has dropped his ERA from 5.63 last season to 3.36 this year. On the other hand, the lefty has a 4.38 FIP. Not only that, but while Sanchez has an 1.29 ERA on the road, he has a 4.36 ERA at home, where he's allowed 2.1 homers per nine innings. Since he is a southpaw who has held lefties below the Mendoza Line, I'm going with three guys who hit from the right side of the plate.
Goldschmidt has had a down year, but he's still hit .278 with 20 homers and 10 stolen bases. His down numbers are mostly due to unexpected struggles against lefties. Versus righties, Goldschmidt has an .835 OPS. With 26 homers and 87 RBI, Arenado seems like he's working hard to have his third 30/100 campaign with the Cardinals. Over the last three weeks he has an .876 OPS. Plus, in his time with the Cardinals he has an .875 OPS as well. The switch-hitting Edman has 11 homers and 17 stolen bases in 105 games. However, all his power comes against lefties, and since 2021 he has a .787 OPS in those matchups.
