This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
It's the fifth day of May (I don't know if there's another way to say that), and we have a solid Friday night of baseball. MLB brings us 11 games starting at 7:05 p.m. ET or later. Let's kick off the weekend right with some DFS success! Here are my lineup recommendations.
Pitching
Jordan Montgomery, STL vs. DET ($8,600): After being dealt to the Cardinals in 2022, Montgomery posted a 3.08 FIP with his new team. This year he has a 2.67 FIP through six starts even though he had a bad outing that is hurting his numbers in an outsized manner. The Tigers have picked up the offense a bit recently, but are still in the bottom three in runs scored and team OPS.
Bailey Ober, MIN vs. CLE ($7,200): Ober is getting another start due to injuries in the Minnesota rotation, but he's earned a shot. Through two starts he has an 1.59 ERA. Cleveland is struggling offensively, and it is a team that may have the least power in MLB. The Guardians are last in slugging percentage.
Merrill Kelly, ARI vs. WAS ($6,800): Kelly has dropped his home run rate season by season, so the lack of long balls he allows feels legit. His home ERA is 4.86 early in the year, but since 2021 he has a 3.48 ERA at home, so that is probably a fluke. While the Nationals' batting average is quite high, they have shown no power and are in the bottom five in runs scored.
Top Targets
Trea Turner ($5,600) hasn't delivered as expected, though he does have three homers, two triples and four stolen bases. Since 2021 he has a .970 OPS versus lefties, so this kind of matchup could help. Chris Sale, a southpaw, lost a couple seasons to injury, but he seems to have lost his effectiveness in 2023. Through six starts he has a 6.75 ERA.
So far, William Contreras ($5,100) has delivered as expected with the Brewers, save for the power. He has a .282 batting average and .371 OBP, and last year he did hit 20 homers. Hopefully the power picks up. Sean Manaea could help with that. When he was with the Athletics he didn't give up homers, but last year he allowed 1.65 homers per nine innings with the Padres, and now with the Giants he's given up 2.95.
Bargain Bats
It's been business as usual for Freddie Freeman ($5,000), who has slashed .310/.386/.500, including a .923 OPS versus righties. Joe Musgrove will likely improve, but his first two starts have left him with an 8.15 FIP. Petco Park may suppress homers traditionally, but that's why I like Freeman in this matchup. He's not an all-or-nothing swinger, and last year he smashed 47 doubles to go with his 21 homers.
Edward Olivares ($2,700) has never really grabbed a role for Kansas City, but right now he is starting in the outfield. He's also hit .267 with two homers, two triples, and three stolen bases. I wanted a righty from the Royals, as the lefty Kyle Muller is starting for the Athletics. In Muller's career he has a 5.56 ERA, and righties have hit .273 against him.
Stacks to Consider
Atlanta vs. Orioles (Dean Kremer): Ronald Acuna ($6,600), Matt Olson ($5,400), Austin Riley ($5,200)
Last year, Kremer managed a 3.23 ERA, but the year prior he had a 7.55 ERA. Which was more indicative? Well, this season Kremer has a 6.67 ERA. Lefties have hit .290 against the right hander since 2021, but I only have one southpaw due to the makeup of Atlanta's lineup. However, righties have hit .270 against Kremer, so it's all good.
Acuna is playing at an MVP level once again. He's slashed .355/.445/.589 with six homers and 15 stolen bases. Plus, since 2021 he has a .920 OPS at home. Acuna did get banged up Thursday, but every indication is that there is no concern about his health. Olson hit more than 30 homers in his last season with Oakland and in his first season with Atlanta. This year he has eight home runs with a .363 OBP and .528 slugging percentage. Riley's numbers are down, but he still has six home runs. Over the previous two seasons he posted an .887 OPS, so I expect him to pick it up.
Cardinals vs. Tigers (Matthew Boyd): Paul Goldschmidt ($5,300), Nolan Arenado ($4,400), Dylan Carlson ($2,800)
As a starter with the Tigers, Boyd had a 4.96 ERA over seven seasons. Last year he briefly was in the bullpen for the Mariners, but now he is starting with the Tigers once more. It isn't going well. Over five starts, the lefty has a 5.47 ERA and has allowed righties to hit .278 against him. Thus, I am stacking three right-handers from the Cardinals versus Boyd.
Goldschmidt has delivered as expected, having slashed .300/.396/.500 with four home runs. Plus, he's added three stolen bases! Additionally, since 2021 he has an 1.153 OPS against southpaws. Arenado is off to a slow start, but he'll turn it around. His track record is too strong. Even after leaving the Rockies, he had an .848 OPS over his first two campaigns with the Cardinals. Arenado has a .918 OPS versus lefties over the last three seasons as well. There is one circumstance in which Carlson is worth putting in your lineup, but it's when he faces a lefty at home. Since 2021 he has an .870 OPS against southpaws and an .804 OPS at home.
Rangers at Angels (Tyler Anderson): Marcus Semien ($5,700), Jonah Heim ($3,900), Josh Jung ($3,800)
Last season, Anderson got away with a low strikeout rate because he didn't allow home runs. This year, the strikeouts are down, but the homers are up and the newly minted Angel has a 6.39 FIP. Prior to last season, he has a 4.62 ERA. It seems like 2022 is the fluke, so I'm down to stack a few Rangers.
Last year, Semien had 26 homers and 25 stolen bases, and this year he has five of the former and four of the latter. For whatever reason, Semien can't hit at home, but he's absolutely crushed it on the road, including an 1.024 OPS this season. Heim has been one of the best-hitting catchers, posting a .294/.371/.588 slash line with six home runs. He's a switch hitter, but since 2021 he has an .824 OPS versus left-handed pitchers. It sure seems like Jung, a vaunted prospect, is breaking through after his cup of coffee in 2022. He's slashed .275/.325/.541 with eight homers. Plus, he has an 1.074 OPS against lefties in his career.
