This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
We have a full day of baseball, as games begin at 12:35 pm ET and continue until the final first pitch at 9:45 pm. That leaves us with two evenly split slates on DraftKings, though our focus will be on the evening slate, which features seven matchups that start at 7:10. The pitching pool is deep, with relatively little falloff in talent until the final few arms at the lowest price points. That likely means roster rates for hitters will concentrate on a few specific teams, with the Astros, Cardinals, Giants and Rangers all standing out to various degrees.
Pitching
Only five pitchers have a strikeout rate below 20 percent, while only three have a SIERA above 4.50. That means our primary differentiator between pitchers will be matchup rather than skill. We'll start with skill, though. Pablo Lopez ($9,800) has a significant advantage in strikeout rate compared to the rest of the pitcher pool. He's the only pitcher that clears the 30 percent threshold, and that's a six percentage point advantage over the next highest mark among any pitcher with a significant sample this season.
Next up is Framber Valdez ($8,800), who draws a matchup against Oakland. The A's haven't been a pushover lineup, but they still strike out a well above-average rate. Valdez is one of five pitchers with a strikeout rate below 20 percent, but his upside is a bit higher due to the matchup. He has also proven to have an excellent floor.
The Red Sox may not stand out as an easy matchup on the surface, but they have struck out at the third-highest rate in the league (25.9 percent). It's hard to argue with what Taj Bradley ($8,000) has done on the mound, as he dominated in his rehab outings and then ripped through the Yankees in his first start in the majors.
The last pitcher to highlight is Jon Gray ($7,500). Setting aside Bradley's small sample, Gray has the second-highest strikeout rate of all pitchers. The Guardians aren't an ideal matchup because they don't strike out at a particularly high rate, but Gray's discounted price makes him an intriguing option.
Top Hitters
The Astros are a stacking option as they square off against Aaron Brooks, a relative unknown after pitching primarily in the Korean Baseball Organization (KBO) and minors across the last four seasons. He may catch Houston off guard due to the lack of a scouting report, but I still want to play their top hitters, Kyle Tucker ($6,200) and Alex Bregman ($4,200).
It's not the most conventional selection, but there will be some value to making different lineups on Wednesday because hitting roster rates are likely to be concentrated. That leads to the Angels and Logan O'Hoppe ($4,200) or Taylor Ward ($4,500). They'll square off against Lance Lynn, who has allowed a 10.7 percent barrel rate.
Value Bats
For the second straight day, Heliot Ramos ($2,800) is a player I want in lineups. He should hit relatively high in the Giants' order against lefty Ryan Yarbrough, who has a pitiful 11.7 percent strikeout rate. San Francisco's lineup is too beat up to be a desirable stack, but playing one-offs is viable due to the matchup.
I'm not eager to attack a matchup against Logan Webb, but Gavin Lux ($3,100) has begun to show signs of life at the plate. He has three double-digit point performances in his last five starts. He offers cheap exposure to one of the best lineups in the league.
Stacks to Consider
Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians (Carlos Carrasco): Marcus Semien ($5,500), Corey Seager ($5,400), Adolis Garcia ($5,600)
Carlos Carrasco has a 5.36 ERA and he's deserved those results due to the combination of a 9.6 percent walk rate and a 1.6 HR/9. The Rangers aren't the offense to face with those numbers. They haven't reached expectations early on, but it's impossible to argue with the talent on the roster, especially atop the order. This is a particularly valuable stack Wednesday because Gray is the value pitcher and there's a correlation between the Rangers' offense excelling and Gray having an increased chance to earn a win.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Angels (Griffin Canning): Lars Nootbaar ($3,900), Paul Goldschmidt ($4,000), Nolan Arenado ($4,300)
The Cardinals have been among the worst offensive teams in the league but they've shown signs of life within the last week by posting a .334 wOBA and 118 wRC+. That hasn't necessarily led to impressive fantasy performances from their stars, but Canning offers arguably the best matchup of the day. He has the highest SIERA of any available pitcher and has a subpar 7.9 K-BB%. The other benefit of using the Cardinals is that they're pretty cheap, so it should be possible to pay up at pitching or use them as a secondary stack.
