This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
As we ease into June, and summer looms, Thursday evening is a light night for MLB. There are seven games on the slate starting at 6:40 p.m. ET or later. Here are some DFS recommendations to heat things up Thursday.
Pitching
Sonny Gray, STL vs. COL ($9,500): Gray was one of MLB's best pitchers in his two seasons with the Twins. The move to St. Louis has not hindered him at all. Through 10 starts he has a 3.00 ERA, but with a 2.63 FIP and a career-high 12.16 K/9 rate. The Rockies are in the bottom 10 in runs scored, and given their home ballpark, that is particularly poor.
Javier Assad, CHC at CIN ($7,800): Only once this season has Assad allowed more than two earned runs. That's helped him post a 2.27 ERA. He has a 2.82 career ERA. The Reds have been a disappointment this year, as many expected major improvement with all their young talent. Instead, Cincinnati is just below average in terms of runs scored and is in the bottom 10 in team batting average and slugging percentage.
Top Target
Though Rafael Devers ($5,900) has been particularly (and unexpectedly) poor against his fellow lefties, his 1.051 OPS versus righties has made up for that. Notably, he also has a 1.020 OPS on the road in 2024. When a 27-year-old pitcher begins the year in Triple-A for the White Sox, that probably does not speak highly of them. That's the story for Jake Woodford, who had a 6.61 ERA for the Cardinals last season. He allowed three runs in 4.1 innings against the Blue Jays in his first start for Chicago.
Bargain Bats
Though Anthony Rizzo ($4,600) has been ice cold, maybe facing a right-handed pitcher at Yankee Stadium, a park that tends to be kind to lefties, is what he needs. Indeed, over the last three seasons, he has a .813 OPS at home. Though he has an elite strikeout-to-walk ratio, Pablo Lopez has a 4.84 ERA because he's allowed 1.61 homers per nine innings.
Installed in center field by the Dodgers, Andy Pages ($3,800) just hit his sixth home run Wednesday. While he has a sub-.300 on-base percentage (OBP) because he doesn't walk at all, the rookie has hit .263 thanks largely to a .853 OPS against lefties. Bailey Falter is a southpaw, and while he has a 3.22 ERA, he has a 4.51 FIP and has struck out a mere 5.32 batters per nine innings.
Stacks to Consider
Padres vs. Diamondbacks (Slade Cecconi): Manny Machado ($4,800), Jake Cronenworth ($4,300), Jackson Merrill ($3,500)
Only once in his seven outings this year has Cecconi avoided allowing a home run. On the flip side, he's allowed exactly six runs three times. In his career, the righty has only managed 6.47 strikeouts per nine innings while giving up 1.83 homers per nine. Also, his line-drive percentage this season is a mere 9.9 percent, which is unsustainably low. Things could get worse for Cecconi.
Machado has perked up a bit, with a .819 OPS over the last three weeks and a .964 OPS over the last two weeks. He's been bad at home this season, but in the prior two campaigns, he posted an OPS over .830 at home both times, so that seems more like a fluke than anything. Cronenworth has almost as many homers and RBI as he had last year through only 60 games, and he has two triples after hitting seven last season. He's been even worse than usual against his fellow lefties, but his .878 OPS versus righties has sustained him with gusto. Debuting as a top prospect, Merrill has hit .267 with three homers and seven stolen bases. Unsurprisingly, the southpaw hasn't figured out MLB-level lefties, but he has a .734 OPS versus righties. I will note Machado seemed to injure his leg trying to run out a double play Wednesday. If he can't go, Donovan Solano ($3,000) will likely get the start. This is his first season with the Padres, but he's slashed .339/.413/.446 and has batted .298 over the last six seasons.
Diamondbacks at Padres (Randy Vasquez): Corbin Carroll ($4,400), Joc Pederson ($4,300), Jake McCarthy ($3,700)
Flipping this matchup around also works for me. Vasquez had a 2.87 ERA with the Yankees last year but with a 4.98 FIP. Now a full-time starter with San Diego, he has a 5.74 ERA and has given up 1.69 homers per nine innings through six starts. While Arizona's hitters have scuffled, especially their lefties, southpaws have batted .472 against Vasquez. That may be only over 38 batters, but that's still remarkable. Thus, maybe this is the day to stack three Diamondback southpaws.
Carroll is having an all-timer of a sophomore slump, following up breezing to National League Rookie of the Year with lackluster numbers. Even so, he has two homers, nine stolen bases and four triples. Just last year he had a .921 OPS against righties. I don't think Carroll will be a one-season wonder. He's too talented. Pederson has delivered what Arizona hoped for, and then some. Usually, he's good for smashing homers against righties with a poor batting average and middling OBP. This year, he's slashed .288/.388/.511. Since 2022, he's slugged .491 versus right-handed pitchers. McCarthy doesn't have power, that much is clear. However, he's batted .273 with eight stolen bases, and he's stolen over 20 bases in each of the prior two seasons. Also, away from Arizona's pitcher-friendly ballpark, he has a .750 OPS on the road since 2022.
