This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous article 3-0 +2.56
Overall 111-88-1 +9.68
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets 6:40 PM ET
Carlos Carrasco vs. Edward Cabrera
The Marlins are actually a decent home team, especially over the last 30 plus days. They are 12-8 at home in their last 20 with an average of 4.5 runs per game. Carrasco has been a disaster in his last seven starts with a 6.59 ERA in just 28.2 innings. I am going to continue to bet against Carrasco until proven otherwise.
BET – Marlins over 3.5 runs (+125) for 1 RW buck
Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners 8:10 PM ET
Jake Odorizzi vs. Logan Gilbert
Two things we know about the Astros – they don't strike out and they mash at home. They are 8-3 in their last 11 at home while hitting .312, scoring 6.5 runs per game, with 18% strikeouts and 10% walks.
Gilbert has two recent starts against Houston with mixed results. He pitched great at home going five innings allowing zero earned runs but was lit up for nine earned runs in Houston on August 21st. Prior to his last start, he had gone 29.1 innings with a 8.59 ERA and 1.60 WHIP over the prior six starts.
This moneyline of -165 feels light to me as does the total of 8.5 which is being driven down by the Mariners weak offense.
BET – Astros over 4.5 runs (-110) for 1 RW buck
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers 9:40 PM ET
One of the things you start to develop after handicapping games long enough is a "Spidey sense". What I mean by that is when a line looks abnormal it causes you to dig into further and then you find a gem. Arizona being a -153 home favorite against anyone is a rare thing, so I looked into the past. They are 7-3 when home favorites of at least -125 in the last 10 games and they have scored at least five runs in eight of those games. Spencer Howard has a 7.52 ERA over his last seven starts and I feel we get a deflated game total here with Gallen on the mound at 8.5. Love the Dbacks in this spot.
BET – Arizona over 4.5 runs (+100 BetMGM) for 1 RW buck
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels 10:10 PM ET
Blake Snell vs. Packy Naughton
Snell has figured it out over his last six starts, going 36.2 innings with a 1.72 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and 54 strikeouts to 12 walks. Take note, however, that three of those starts were against Arizona. I have been targeting the Angels as a bet-against for a couple of weeks now and it has paid off. They are middle of the pack against left-handed pitchers in the last 30 days, but they are 2nd to last in wRC+ overall in the last month. One of the things I like about this spot is Snell gets the Angels without the DH which means no Shohei Ohtani and he gets the pitcher at least twice. The Angels have the lowest projected team total on the board as well.
Shop around on this prop as it is as high as -140.
BET – Snell over 7.5 strikeouts (-124 FanDuel) for 1 RW buck
