This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
New MLB Rules Augment an Increase in Scoring Trends
The addition of new rules to the Major League Baseball rule book has shortened the length of the games this season and has increased the scoring of these games. Let's dive into the data to see if we can determine if these early scoring trends to the 2023 Major League Baseball season are sustainable.
Generally, the month of April is the lowest-scoring month over the 162-game Major League Baseball season. However, this season has seen an increase in scoring in which the 236 games played have averaged 4.71 runs per game marking the fourth-highest April of the past twenty seasons. The highest scoring in April occurred in 2006 with teams scoring an average of 5.01 runs per game. The lowest scoring in April occurred last season when teams averaged just 4.0 two runs per game. So overall scoring this season compared to last has increased 17% and the Over has produced a profitable 123-102-11 record for 55% winning bets.
Road teams have benefitted from the rise in scoring as reflected in a 137-91 Run Line record resulting in 58% winning bets. Moreover, road favorites have gone 46-35 on the run line for 57% winners and the Over is a quite strong 44-28-9 for 61% winners.
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Does the Market Reflect the Increase Scoring?
This season has seen the Over win 55% of the time equaling the previous highest Aprils in the past 20 seasons. Only the 2006 and 2009 seasons were higher with the over-winning 55.4% and 55% respectively. So, the market has not priced in the increase in scoring as of yet and until it does, we will have terrific betting opportunities in specific situations in the months of May and June to bet the Over.
The Tampa Bay Rays jumped out to a 14-2 record to start out the season having won the 1st 13 games. The Over won 53.3% of the time in these 15 games so the market has the Rays games fairly priced. However, these results are a bit misleading because the Rays pitching during these 15 games has been outstanding, to say the least serving to reduce the total runs scored so that the Over is actually one less run than what would be normally expected. There are currently six teams in Major League Baseball that have seen the Over win 67% of the time. They are the Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox, Houston Astros, Chicago White Sox, Philadelphia Phillies, and the Oakland Athletics. The one facet of the game that these six teams share is a struggling defense and inconsistent pitching from both the starters and the bullpens. The result is that the market has not adjusted at all to many of these teams.
Which MLB Teams Have Under-Priced Totals?
The Phillies and Astros are the two teams that stick out as the main targets for potential Over bets for the last few weeks of April and the month of May simply because they have offenses that rank in the top-5. An elite scoring offense more than offsets the struggles with the starting pitching staff and the bullpens. So, the expected value the market presents gives a terrific betting opportunity on the Over with these two teams. Be sure to follow me and ring the notifications bell so you won't miss any updates and best bets that I am taking to the window.
To identify teams that are on the verge of scoring more runs than expected by the markets simply track the three and seven-game moving averages along with a season-to-date scoring average. For instance, the Philadelphia Phillies entering Sunday's action are averaging just 3.3 three runs per game over the last three games, 5.0 runs per game over the last seven games, and an anemic 4.07 runs per game for the season. When an elite offense like the Phillies has gone through a stretch where they have significantly underperformed their season-to-date scoring averages will be the first alert of a potential betting opportunity on the over in their games as well as the team total overs. By the way, the Phillies scored nine runs in the first inning in a win over the Reds Sunday.
My career on Wall Street as a Currency Strategist was filled with looking at charts covered with all sorts of technical readings, analytics, and visualizations. I have successfully converted many of these technical indicators to identify solid betting opportunities in all the major sports markets. When a stock price is in a corrective phase or bear market trend the shorter-term moving averages such as the three-day will be much lower than the seven-day or 28-day moving average. That's the situation we want to see occur with teams like the Phillies and Astros moving forward because their current anemic offensive production is not sustainable and an increase at least back to their respective scoring means is likely.
In summary, if the new rule changes prove to have a strong cause and effect on the current increases in scoring in MLB, then these opportunities to bet Overs with a team, whose recent scoring trends have been anemic and significantly below their season-to-date averages. Stay tuned for updates and my best bets in the days and weeks ahead here at Rotowire.
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