This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous: 3-1, +1.58 RWBucks
Overall: 100-81-1, +3.13
Reds at Marlins, 1:10 p.m. EDT
The numbers are very ugly for Luzardo over his last four starts: 10.90 ERA, 2.37 WHIP, 7.3 BB/9, 2.1 HR/9. The Reds have loaded up their lineup with six right-handed batters for Sunday. They have averaged 1.5 home runs per game on the road in August.
The recent trends for the Reds on the road against left-handed pitching is not great, but I am going more with how bad Luzardo has been.
BET: Reds over 4.5 runs (-115) for 1 RWBuck
BET: Luzardo over 0.5 home runs allowed (-105) for 1 RWBuck
White Sox vs. Cubs 2:10 pm et
Dylan Cease vs. Kyle Hendricks
Cease just faced the Cubs on Aug. 8 and posted 10 strikeouts in just five innings. He has averaged right on the 7.5 strikeout prop in his last eight starts. The Cubs have the highest strikeout rate since the July 31 trade deadline at 30.3 percent. While the prop number looks high, the recent trends for Cease and the Cubs lead me to project him for eight to nine strikeouts.
BET: Cease over 7.5 strikeouts (-108 FanDuel) for 1 RWBuck
Mariners vs. Royals, 4:10 p.m. EDT
Marco Gonzales vs. Brady Singer
Gonzales has been on a solid run over his last eight starts with a 4-0 record, 2.19 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. He has strong under trend in the last 20 starts, going 14-5-1. Singer has not pitched well in his last eight starts, going 0-4 with a 5.66 ERA and 2.03 WHIP.
The Royals have been on a good run in their last 13 games: 10-3 with a .278 average and 5.0 runs per game. But when looking at their recent history on the road against left-handed pitchers, they have been pretty weak with a .276 wOBA and 73 wRC+ this month.
With Gonzales recent strong unders and Singers' struggles, I like the Mariners at home to have the lead after the first five innings.
BET: Mariners -0.5 runs first 5 innings (+100 BetMGM) for 1 RWBuck
