This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous: 2-1-1, +0.69 RWBucks
Overall: 78-60-1, +8.12
Rockies vs. Marlins, 3:10 p.m. EDT
Kyle Freeland vs. Trevor Rogers
I have been on Freeland for the last few weeks mostly with overs on total outs or unders on earned runs allowed. No reason to stop now as he gets a weak Marlins lineup at home. The Rockies have performed incredible at home this year going 30-13-10 in first five innings for +1800 (No. 1 in MLB). The Marlins have averaged just 3.1 runs per game over their last nine. They also average just 2.04 runs per game in the first five innings.
Freeland has been on a tear in his last eight starts, going 46 innings with a 39/8 K/BB, 2.15 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. He has allowed more than three earned runs in only two of his last eight starts.
BET: Freeland under 2.5 earned runs (+115) for 1 RWBuck
Athletics vs. Rangers, 4:07 p.m. EDT
James Kaprielian vs. Jordan Lyles
The Rangers have lost five consecutive games and are just 4-16 in their last 20 games. The A's are 7-3 in their last 10. The A's have won four straight against the Rangers, outscoring them 26-9. Kaprielian has been average in his three starts against the Rangers this year, going 0-1 in 17 innings with 14 strikeouts and a 3.71 ERA.
The Rangers have been one of the worst teams in baseball for the first five innings, going 11-35-7 on the road (-$1040). The A's have thrived in this role as home favorites at 29-17. The odds on taking the A's are sky high in just about every scenario, except the F3, which are reasonable.
BET: A's -0.5 first three innings (-130) for 1 RWBuck
Dodgers vs. Angels
Walker Buehler vs. Reid Detmers
As you can see with both the A's and Dodgers, oddsmakers are going into the -300 moneyline range. That will become more frequent when the better teams face non-playoff contenders.
The big opportunity here is exploiting the very weak Angels lineup that is without Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Jared Walsh and Anthony Rendon. One of the props I normally do not look at is home runs allowed by the starting pitcher, but in this case I think we get incredible value on Buehler, who has not allowed a home run in eight starts. He has only allowed two in his last 11 starts.
I think the Dodgers jump all over Reid Detmers, who got rocked in his debut, so the F3 becomes a value just like in the A's game.
BET: Buehler under 0.5 home runs allowed (-110 DraftKings) for 1 RWBuck
BET: Dodgers first three innings -0.5 runs (-115) for 1 RWBuck
