This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous: 1-3, -2.80
Overall: 70-53, +10.83
Cubs at Nationals. 1:05 p.m. EDT
Adbert Alzolay vs. Erick Fedde
The Nationals are a slight home favorite at -120 with a total of nine. Both teams dealt significant pieces at the trade deadline, leaving both offenses with little. I don't trust Fedde, but I do like Alzolay and he is a much better pitcher here as a road dog. The first five innings bet means I am confident in him as a pitcher, but I do not want to get into predicting the game.
BET: Cubs first 5 innings (+105) for 1 RWBuck
Yankees at Marlins, 1:10 p.m. EDT
Jordan Montgomery vs. Sandy Alcantara
One of the ways to attack MLB betting right after the trade deadline is to focus on teams that traded their key hitters. The Marlins dealt Adam Duvall and Starling Marte. Add the ballpark and this being in the National League, and it spells an under play. The first two games of this series went under the total (7.5) with the Yankees winning 4-2 and 3-1. The total has been adjusted down to 7, but we have two good pitchers on the mound as well.
My main play on this game was going to be the Marlins, but their team total was 2.5 and the Yankees was 3.5, which only adds to 6 runs meaning there was no value.
BET: Under 7 runs (+105) for 1 RWBuck
Mariners at Rangers 2:35 p.m. EDT
Marco Gonzales vs. Mike Foltynewicz
The Mariners have the best record for teams over first five innings on the road at 32-11-3 (74 percent) and Folty has been the worst F5 pitcher in baseball with a 3-13-4 record (-$905, 19 percent). The Mariners are 12th in F5 runs per game on the road at 2.47, so clearly this line has no reflection on Foltynewicz starting. Folty has a 6.20 ERA the first time through the batting order and it jumps to 8.22 ERA, .341 BAA and 17 HR allowed in 38.1 innings.
BET: Mariners over 2.5 runs first 5 innings (-105 DraftKings) for 1 RWBuck
Dodgers at Diamondbacks, 4:10 p.m. EDT
The Dbacks enter this game a whopping +200 home underdog against the Dodgers. The Dodgers have dominated the season series 10-2 (22-4 including last year) outscoring the Dbacks 71-34.
Smith has been roughed up in his last four starts with a 9.61 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. That includes the start against the Dodgers in which he gave up nine earned runs in the first inning. The juice is huge in just about every way you can bet this game, but I really like laying -1.5 runs in the first five innings on the Dodgers at plus money. Smith has been one of the worst F5 pitchers this season at 2-8-1 and -$613.
BET: Dodgers -1.5 runs first 5 innings (+110) for 1 RWBuck
