Previous article: 2-2, -0.29, RWBucks
Season: 74-77-7, -9.45 RWBucks
I'm honing in on a pair of Saturday games where I expect the playoff hopefuls to outperform their respective non-contending opponents with both offense and superior starting pitching. Odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Blue Jays at Orioles, 4:35 p.m. EDT (Game 1)
Starting Pitchers: Hyun Jin Ryu vs. Keegan Akin
The Pick: Ryu Over 4.5 strikeouts (-120) for 1 RWBuck
Secondary Pick: Blue Jays -1.5 (-135) for 1 RWBuck
Ryu has actually been an appreciably better pitcher on the road (7-4, 3.09 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 0.9 HR/9) and is 3-1with a 3.33 ERA against Baltimore in four starts. He's also needed only 5.0 and 5.2 innings on the two occasions he's exceeded 4.5 Ks versus the O's, so the seven-inning duration of this game shouldn't hinder him much. Meanwhile, Akin has allowed a. 270 average and 1.076 OPS in 56 career encounters with current Toronto bats and has a 1-3 record and 6.23 ERA at home this season.
Rockies at Phillies, 6:05 p.m. EDT
Starting Pitchers: Kyle Freeland vs. Zack Wheeler
The Pick: Wheeler over 6.5 strikeouts (-160) for 2 RWBucks
Secondary Pick: Phillies to score first and win (+135) for 1 RWBuck
Freeland has admittedly salvaged what looked like a completely lost season early, but after a long string of mostly strong starts, he was walloped by the Giants for seven earned runs his last time out. The Phillies could be similarly dangerous, as they've posted a .271 average, .813 OPS and .349 wOBA against lefties at home in the second half. Wheeler bounced back from some recent rocky starts to shut out the Brewers over six frames last time out and faces a Rockies squad with a .220/.292/.386 slash line, .295 wOBA and -11.5 wRAA in the second half against righties on the road.
