This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous: 0-5
Season: 5-13, -9.92 RWBucks
It was an ugly effort for me the last time out, but after learning some lessons it's time to turn the page. There's a full slate of interesting games to tackle Saturday, so let's jump in.
Reds vs. Pirates
Vladimir Gutierrez vs. Mitch Keller
The Pirates pitching staff has had a rough time in Cincinnati, as Wil Crowe allowed seven runs in four innings Thursday while JT Brubaker followed that with an eight earned-run performance in five innings Friday. Mitch Keller isn't likely to change that trajectory, as his first start after being recalled Aug. 1 was a struggle — much like the rest of his campaign. Meanwhile, Vladimir Gutierrez has largely found his footing, surrendering two earned runs or fewer in four of his last five outings. Even if the start goes sideways for him, the comparison between the Reds' and Pirates' lineup is not remotely close, and tilts heavily in favor of Cincinnati.
BET: Reds over 5.5 runs scored (-125) for 1 RWBuck
BET: Reds -1.5 (-105) for 1 RWBuck
White Sox vs. Cubs
Carlos Rodon vs. Adbert Alzolay
Alzolay started the season hot and it looked like he was on his way to a breakthrough season. However, he's been dragged down by the long ball as the season has worn on, resulting in shorter outings and fewer batters faced to rack up strikeouts. In his last five starts, Alzolay has pitched more than five innings once. The White Sox are a middle-of-the-road team in term of strikeout rate, though this is more of a bet on a lack of Alzolay's volume than matchup.
BET: Adbert Alzolay under 5.5 strikeouts (-134 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RWBuck
Angels vs. Dodgers
Somehow, Jaime Barria burned me last week, which is never a line I expected to type out. I'm not going back to the well betting against him, largely because of the tremendous odds in the Dodgers' favor. However, there's another direction to go in the game. Julio Urias has pitched very well for most of the season and particularly in his last two starts. However, in a move that was fairly predictable, the team has started to monitor his innings. Without Trevor Bauer and Clayton Kershaw, there's not enough depth in the rotation to fully shut Urias down or skip starts. They've artificially shortened his outings instead as he's worked only five and 5.2 innings in last two starts despite allowing one earned between the pair of outings combined. That will put pressure on the Dodgers' bullpen, which is also currently shorthanded.
BET: Angles over 2.5 runs scored (-145 on DraftKings sportsbook) for 1 RWBuck
