This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
I am going to cover last month's article which was written on July 19th and then update with the current odds for Mid-August. This is a huge update as the impact of the trade deadline will be reflected in the odds changes.
AL MVP
With just six weeks left in the season, Shohei Ohtani has locked up this award and is now a -1250 to -3333 favorite. Vladimir Guerrero, Jr has fallen from +775 to +1100, and even if Ohtani suffered a season-ending injury, would not win.
AL CY YOUNG
This is still the same three-horse race with Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon, and Lance Lynn. Lynn is now the favorite at -150, Cole +165, and Rodon +700 to +800. This is Lynn's race to lose in my opinion even with the Yankees having an incredible run over the last month.
NL MVP
Fernando Tatis Jr has become the leader as expected at -300 and I wrote about it last month. The fact he is playing in the outfield now solidifies his MVP chances.
Trea Turner got as low as +300 in some places when he was traded to the Dodgers and it looked like Tatis Jr would be out for the season. But he is back up to +1500 to +2500.
Bryce Harper has jumped into the race at +450 to +700 with the Phillies making a run in the NL East, but the division is close and it would be tough for him to win.
Freddie Freeman has been on an incredible tear over the past month and the Braves are also competing in the East. He is now +1100 to +1500. I think there is a value in Freeman at this price and he could become the favorite if Tatis does indeed end up missing a lot of September with injuries.
Max Muncy has been the best player on the Dodgers and is a legit candidate as well. But he is priced at +750 to +800. which is probably his peak. They would have to pass the Giants in the West for him to win.
Sleeper – He won't win, but Brandon Crawford has to be the biggest sleeper for NL MVP. The Giants are still in first place and leading the majors in wins. But at +10,000 give me a flier with hopes his odds drop to +2500 and we can cash out on a Prop Swap.
NL CY YOUNG
I wrote about Corbin Burnes last month being a huge buy at +2200 with the deGrom injury and, sure enough, he skyrocketed to +300 to +350. With the Brewers looking like they should win the Central, I do like Burnes to win the Cy Young in the NL.
Zack Wheeler is now the leader at +175, but that is predicated on the Phillies winning the NL East and I am just not sure they will be able to in a very tough division.
Walker Buehler has been around +300 to +350 along with Burnes and has a real shot to win the award. It would probably take a Burnes injury or the Dodgers to get into first place for him to do so, however.
I have written about Kevin Gausman several times and while he did have some hiccups recently, the Giants are still in first place with his odds at +900 to +1300, I will grab that value.
WORLD SERIES
We are now 75 percent through the baseball season and 15 out of 30 teams still have a legitimate shot at making the playoffs.
The four teams who have improved their odds the most in the last 30 days are the Braves, Yankees, Reds, and Rays. The Braves made significant trades to bolster their outfield. The Yankees went out and got Joey Gallo and Anthony Rizzo. The Reds started hitting again. And the Rays just keep being the Rays.
The four teams whose odds are been reduced the most are the Padres, Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Mets. The Padres pitching is in shambles with injuries. The Red Sox stopped hitting and their pitching staff is worn out. The Blue Jays just don't have enough. The Mets suffered the deGrom injury and are struggling to score runs.
From Last Month to This Month
I have been touting the Rays, Astros, and Brewers as my three teams all year and I will stick with them again this month.
I feel confident in the Astros (+500) to win it all based on experience and the ability to go trade for what they need (they went out and bolstered the bullpen significantly without much fanfare).
"The Brewers still need to trade for at least one big-time bat or two secondary bats. But they have the pitching to get to the World Series." (We almost got a scare with Freddy Peralta leaving the game Wednesday night but looks like he will be ok).
Turns out they just needed to start hitting again, which they have.
"The Giants are now +1800 which is where I said they needed to be last month. I can see them getting to +1000 to +1200 this time next month". (They are now +750).
I like them more to win the NL vs. the World Series. I think the Rays or Astros would match up well against them.
I'm riding the Astros until the season ends with the Brewers being right there behind them and the Rays as a hedge in the American League.
