This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets Today: Expert MLB Picks for Astros at Orioles (Thursday, August 22)
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Last week didn't quite go as planned as Zach Eflin shut down the Red Sox bats. Thankfully, Nick Pivetta did his job on the strikeout prop, keeping us from eating an empty taco. This week, I'll prove to be either stupidly stubborn or expertly steadfast as I again target the Orioles as my team to play against today. Let's find out why.
Astros at Orioles Best Bets
First, let's talk about the recent direction of these two teams. Winners of eight straight road games, the Astros are finally showing signs of life. Perhaps it is the relative lack of competition in the disappointing American League West, age or injuries, but Houston has been lazy most of the year. Of late, they have pushed their lead in the West to five full games and have outscored their opponents by 18 runs in their most recent 10-game stretch, winning seven of those games. Baltimore is scuffling a bit, going 4-6 in their last 10 with a shoddy staff ERA of 4.55 over that stretch. I'll get into the pitching matchups below, but there is clear value on Houston tonight, making them my Moneyline choice for the day.
MLB Picks for Astros at Orioles
- HOU ML (+135 @ BetMGM)
- HOU/BAL Under 8.0 Runs (+105 @ DraftKings Sportsbook)
On the surface, the pitching matchup seems to favor the Orioles heavily and is likely the main factor in today's lines. However, a deeper look shows Baltimore's Corbin Burnes may be hitting a late-season wall, a familiar sight to anyone who followed his career in Milwaukee. Burnes has given up 15 earned in his last 15 innings over his last three starts while Houston's Spencer Arrighetti has heated up in his last three starts, including a seven-inning, two-earned runs, 13-strikeout masterpiece in his last road start in Boston. Arrighetti struck out 28 in those three starts that covered 18.2 innings for a whopping 13.86 K/9 over that stretch. With the total sitting at 8.0 right now, the value is on the under, and I like it. I do expect the veteran Burnes to come out with a decent start while Arrighetti stays hot in a lower-scoring affair.
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MLB Prop for Astros at Orioles
Today's player prop is simple. Given Arrighetti's recent strikeout numbers and today's total set at 5.5, I have to deploy the same method as the last two weeks. I'm going to take the over and I leave it to you to decide how high you want to go.
- Spencer Arrighetti Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+110 @ BetMGM)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- HOU ML (+135 @ BetMGM)
- HOU/BAL Under 8.0 Runs (+105 @ DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Spencer Arrighetti Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+110 @ BetMGM)
