MLB Bets Today: Expert MLB Picks and Props for Wednesday, Sept. 27

MLB Bets Today: Expert MLB Picks and Props for Wednesday, Sept. 27

This article is part of our MLB Picks series.

MLB Bets Today: Expert MLB Picks and Props for Wednesday, Sept. 27

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Last article: 2-1 (+14.74 RW Bucks) 

2023 regular-season record: 28-37-1 (+6.93 RW Bucks)

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The AL wild-card race remains a heated battle and the AL West is also still up for grabs, so I'm focusing on the three teams from that division still battling for postseason contention/positioning.

Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels Best Bets

The Rangers have regained control of the AL West and are on the verge of clinching the division, leaving the Astros and Mariners to likely battle it out for the final wild-card spot (more on that below). 

Texas is in control of its destiny and would inch ever closer to securing the division crown with a win Wednesday irrespective of what happens in the Astros-Mariners matchup, so I'm banking on a particularly motivated Rangers lineup tonight. Texas has seen Angels starter Griffin Canning once before this season and roughed him up for four earned runs on six hits and a walk in 3.2 innings in the Lone Star State on Aug. 14. 

Canning has actually been more hittable at home, where he sports a 4.85 ERA and 1.29 WHIP across 52 innings. The right-hander does have very good swing-and-miss stuff, but the Rangers are as much as -157 favorites for Wednesday's matchup and sport an array of dangerous bats that have been absolutely lethal versus right-handed pitching on the road in September.

The Rangers boast an .849 OPS, .362 wOBA and 132 wRC+ in that split, while in contrast, the short-handed Angels have just a .230 average, .290 wOBA, 78 wRC+ and 28.1 percent strikeout rate against righties at home during the current month.

Rangers starter Dane Dunning already has a career-high 11 wins and has been markedly more effective on the road as well, posting 3.38 ERA, 8.2 K/9 and 0.5 HR/9 figures that are much better than the 4.44, 6.0 and 1.8 tallies he's produced in those respective categories at home.

MLB Best Bets for Rangers at Angels

  • Rangers Over 4.5 total runs (-122 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
  • Dane Dunning To Record A Win (+165 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck

Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners Best Bets

Speaking of the Astros and Mariners, the two squads engage in the final installment of their 13-game season series on Wednesday. Seattle has been dominant overall, winning nine of the first 12, but tonight's battle carries particularly high stakes.

Houston owns a half-game lead over Seattle for the third and final AL wild-card spot, and both clubs still have an outside (but dwindling) chance to catch the Rangers for the AL West crown as well. Therefore, a victory is extremely valuable to either side's overall postseason aspirations.

In contrast to the Rangers-Angels battle, where incentive is heavily tilted toward one side, I see both sets of bats in this matchup being very willing but also partly stymied by two talented starting pitchers who will also be going all out for their squads. 

Framber Valdez has had some blow-ups this season in addition to a no-hitter versus the Guardians and several other stellar performances. The Mariners even got to him in the most recent of their two encounters on Aug. 19, compiling six earned runs on 10 hits over five innings. However, Seattle has struggled against lefties of late with a .291 wOBA and -6.4 wRAA in that split this month.

Meanwhile, Mariners starter Bryce Miller has endured some rookie growing pains but has also put together an impressive campaign overall, and he's tamed Houston over two starts to the tune of 12.1 shutout innings. Yet, Miller has recorded only seven strikeouts overall in that span and the Astros have an AL-low 18.1 percent strikeout rate against righties this month.

Miller's pitch count could also be watched closely given he's already logged 147 innings between his time at the Double-A level and the majors, and he's recorded four strikeouts or less in three of his last four outings.

MLB Best Bets for Astros at Mariners:

  • Under 4.5 runs - first 5 innings (-130 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
  • Bryce Miller Under 4.5 strikeouts thrown (+128 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck

MLB Best Bets Recap:

  • Rangers Over 4.5 total runs (-122 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
  • Dane Dunning To Record A Win (+165 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
  • Astros-Mariners Under 4.5 runs - first 5 innings (-130 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
  • Bryce Miller Under 4.5 strikeouts thrown (+128 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Juan Carlos Blanco
Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, NFL, CFL and Arena Football for Rotowire.com, including serving as the beat writer for teams in multiple sports. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports as well.
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